The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

That's a nitpick though. All in all, an interesting article, which can be summarized as: the EV car market is lacking demand, and car makers definitely don't want to make cheap EVs since it's already so hard.

There is scant evidence for this. Every time prices improve, sales surge. Sounds like the demand is there, but price matters. As it always has.

Between these two, quite a considerable market is being left unaddressed. The first to fill these niches with affordable models that don’t have weird quirks or make strange tradeoffs will likely do well.

I’ve never spent more than 20k for a car. With prices like this, I’m just going to keep my old one as long as I can.

I've done over 20,000 km in road trips in an EV. You charge while you're eating or toileting or sleeping, it doesn't affect my trips.

And most people don't do long trips every week. Personally, I try to optimize my life to avoid spending a considerable part of it in a car.

With charging at home EVs are just easy. For long trips charging every 2-3 hours isn't too bad (most humans benefit from a break anyways).

Of course that's without without the $1,155 "destination" fee, so even the Forte really starts at $21,145.

But considering inflation, $21k isn't a bad price.

Yes.

But it does rue out every single modern car on the market.

Very frustrating

You can't have it because of existing tarrifs.

Most people don’t own multiple cars and wouldn’t rent a car for those rare use-cases when they already own a perfectly fine car. It may be overall cheaper to do that, but people don’t think that way.

One or two annual holiday roadtrips to go see the family and oops that EV starts looking like an annoying option. Every friend I have who doesn’t own a house and bought an EV ended up returning it because of how annoying the charging was to deal with.

It’s not that charging was _hard_, it’s that they had to think about it.

edit: this may be an urbanite take. Even folks with cars don’t really use them to commute regularly. Semi-rare trips only.

Taking Chevy for example, they have physical HVAC controls, but they're counting on the average consumer being too clueless to realize they only have Google Maps in their car because it came with a free OnStar trial. Eventually people are going to notice that they spent $1000+ to buy the larger screen upgrade, and now Chevy wants them to shell out $300/year forever to be able to use it for maps.

The other big unknown is lifespan of car software platforms, if these end up being like phones where they get laggier and laggier with continued software updates, until eventually it's unusable, people aren't going to be happy about it. But we won't know for 15 years exactly how bad that problem is.

But with so few options, like the parent, I'm planning to keep my current car (a 2008 Prius) indefinitely, just paying for repairs as needed until parts are unavailable or nobody is willing to do the work.

My worry is that US automakers have all but abandoned the compact and midsize economy car segments, and I don't know what tariffs will mean for the Japanese and Korean automakers that do cover these segments. But see my other comment about the pendulum swinging back and forth.

Tesla's charging network is excellent, and I'm glad it's opening to all EVs on the market. I used a third party charger once and the horrible user experience made sure I never will again.

Not only is there a high risk of notoriously underpowered head units becoming increasingly laggy over time with updates, there’s also the risk of the automaker deciding that shipping new updates for your only slightly old EV is too much of a cost to bear and dropping support, making the head unit slowly become more and more useless over time as apps stop running.

CarPlay/Android Auto is an excellent hedge against both of those scenarios, even if one prefers the onboard experience. It never hurts to have an escape hatch.

Also there's enough demand for high-margin cars to max out available production capacity, and would you want to be making major investments in ICE car production right now?

Manufacturers make more money off selling luxury cars. The poors can just buy used luxury cars for all they care. We see the same problem with housing and luxury vs spartan options. The spartan option exists, but only begrudgingly so.

I cannot get the car without registration. I cannot get the car without 'destination' fee.

Bake it into the price.

Some EVs have full charge range that's not much less than a full tank of gas on an ICE at this point - the range is really a non issue for a lot of people.

I drive an EV with a comparably low range (~130 miles) and I can still count on one hand the number of times I've needed to drive further than that in one trip - on those occasions other than my lunch/dinner stop being limited to places with a charging station nothing really changed compared to when I drove an ICE. The rest of the time I get to plug it in in my garage overnight instead of having to stop at petrol stations, which is a nice albeit minor convenience increase.

1) amortizing the assembly line and upfront platform design costs

2) the raw materials of the basic car components, e.g. power train, chassis, and body

3) getting the car into consumer hands (distribution fees, taxes, advertising, dealership margin, etc).

Everything else like labor and upgraded trims works out to a relatively small percentage of the overall price, often under 20%.

Since you can't make enough impact by cutting amenities, you have to cut one of the listed things. You mostly can't build things more efficiently than major manufacturers do (though Tesla is quite good here), so that's out. You can't shave 50% off the basic materials costs because you run into basic FMVSS issues. Kia's strategy is to get as close to this line as they can though. That means you need to cut from the third category. No company wants don't want to cut their own margin, so that's out. Manufacturers can't work around the dealers by law, so they need to keep some dealer margin. Manufacturers can't stop advertising because the advertising department has significant political power and can get anyone proposing that fired. Manufacturers can't avoid taxes for consumers either.

The only real paths to cheaper cars involve opening the market to competitors that aren't limited like this, for instance foreign companies that don't need dealers and are okay accepting lower margins and not advertising.

Wages have been stagnant in the United States for nearly 50 years.

Every economic stat right now points to this as the core issue. Consumers are squeezed more on every last good and service, tons of services are now only available via subscriptions which inherently cost more, and despite the economy supposedly (and, actually) booming in a lot of ways, that doesn't hardly at all make it's way down to the workers either via higher wages, or via cheaper products.

This is a complicated situation that doesn't lend itself well to comments but a number of the bigger datapoints include an employment market that favored employers for the majority of the time since the 70's, the ongoing slandering not to mention outright interference on the part of employers against labor organizing, "inflation" that when you scratch the surface is just companies charging more because they can, the ongoing consolidation of enterprise resulting in monolithic companies that own dozens of brands of the same product, none of which truly compete on price, on and on and on.

There are a ton of good reasons for Americans to be broke, and a number of prominent economists have been ringing alarm bells for decades now that all of these things coming together is going to stall the economy cold and send us into the... by my count, fourth once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis I've experienced.

Dodge has the 2025 ramcharger which has amazing specs! 690 mile range, 14,000lb towing capacity, 663 hp, etc. etc.

I've got reservations about dodge, and reservations about the first year of the model from any manufactuerer. Otherwise, I'd gladly shell out 70k+ and my left nut to get one.

I really wish more manufacturers would go this direction. I've got no interest in 100% EV, because I do things with my truck that simply are not feasible with any EV model, mostly due to range. The problem is, I do just enough truck stuff with really tough requirements that I don't want a non-truck without serious range. Yet, I still go to work in an office a few days a week and would love to use plug-in charge to do so.

Not only does this (and the things you pointed out) reduce the cost of maintenance, it saves on trips to get them done, and the headaches of the pressure most put on you to get things done you don’t need, just so they can make even more money off of you.

Also, EVs on the highway (when hybrids are using the ICE) are much quieter, and have more torque.

The only downsides I have noticed are:

- Higher up front cost (though I don’t think hybrids are much cheaper)

- Heavier = more frequent tire changes (again, not sure hybrids are much better)

- Range for long road trips, resulting in having to pause for long charges, and having to plan your route in advance (definitely not a problem for hybrids)

with the American consumer buying 15M cars a year at those average $50K there isn't an opportunity for the low end. And if such market really appears - i.e. if the American consumer would hit hard economic patch and would really need cheap car - it will be at any moment filled by cheap Chinese EVs.

In 1998 a Chevrolet Metro could be optioned without a radio or rear defogger, even. New purchase price was about $9k (equivalent to $14.5k today). Somebody was buying those, enough for it to be worth the manufacturer’s effort to produce it.

I suspect a whole segment of people would be willing to consider a no-frills EV at a comparable price point. Hell, if somebody made something new like a base model 90s Civic into a $15k EV without extra luxury nonsense I don’t actually need, I’d be in the dealership tomorrow.

GM made that play with the Bolt. It was routinely available for just over $20K. Still sat on lots, not getting a lot of love. People shopping for new cars want nicer toys, people who cannot afford new shop used and enjoy getting those nice toys at a discount. I bet the subset of buyers looking for a bare bones no frills brand-new car is quite small.

I think you're correct; we're probably talking about a portion of the weirdly minimalist and frugal crowd pursuing FIRE. Also, most folks in that small subset wouldn't even consider buying a GM product; it's going to be either a Toyota or Honda for them.

Source: I'm one of them, still driving my base-level trim 2008 Prius.

As an aside, I'm reading that the new Bolt sold nearly as well as the Tesla Model S in 2017. Before that, I think the similarly basic Nissan Leaf was the best selling EV. Since then, however, my sense is that EV purchases became more about "fun" (which Tesla has emphasized and provided) than anything else.

I still have the original brake pads on my 2008 Prius with 150k miles. (And yes, I have them measured periodically to see if they're still good.) This is typical.

It is worth recognizing the role that ZIRP played in all of this. Artificially low interest rates allowed payments on more expensive premium vehicles to be much more manageable for a much larger portion of the population.

It was a totally functional vehicle. The radio sounded good enough. The seats were comfy enough. It was a bit of a slug, but it had enough power so that you weren't scared for your life when merging onto a highway.

If those sound like low standards... well, this was not always the case for bargain basement cars...

With torque blending, regen braking is blended with friction braking at low speeds (when regen braking is ineffective). Friction braking is always needed to make a full stop.

Not new, but does that matter so much?

Sedans are nothing. Just barely, finally, after all those years, we have electric kombis - VW ID.7 Tourer and Audi A6 Avant e-tron.

Vehicles at that price are usually crap, esp. the Versa with the CVT engine. And, at least last year, there was a shortage so that you'd be paying a few grand above that price just to get it. I'd bet it's still the same where you're paying closer to 20k for this car.

Now, if you could get a Versa with the simpler engine (I think it was a manual shift), it's apparently a decent car. But finding that model is like a full-time job for a week, then either flying out to whatever dealership has it or getting it shipped which is another grand.

This is also why 3-row SUVs and half ton crew cab trucks have proliferated as much as they have.

CAFE regulations (in a nutshell) require automakers' vehicles to meet a particular fuel economy per size of footprint, averaged across the vehicles they sell. So, they can meet the standards either by increasing the footprint of the vehicle, or by increasing the fuel economy of their vehicles, or both.

Maybe you're thinking of the strict emission laws regarding NOx and SOx that prevent diesel cars.

They are. CAFE target formulas have the footprint of the vehicle(s) in the denominator. Larger footprint = easier fuel economy targets

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/cafe-ghg_my_2012...

> would you want to be making major investments in ICE car production right now?

I would if I were a car manufacturer, at least in addition to other projects that I may have investing in alternative fuels. I haven't dug deeply into all the issues VW is dealing with today, but it does seem at least in part due to an over investment in electric vehicles.

If I were really in that situation, though, I'd personally be investing heavily in designs more similar to the Chevy Volt with an electric drivetrain and onboard gas generator. Range anxiety goes away without having to pack a massive battery pack in the car, and the gas engine is much less stressed meaning easier maintenance and a longer life.

That's true, but US fuel economy standards don't actually require vehicles to be more fuel efficient in a direct way. They require vehicles to be a certain fuel efficiency for their footprint.

Unintuitively, while making a car larger doesn't make it more fuel efficient, it might make it better meet US fuel economy standards.

That's also what fuels some of the demand for high-margin cars, because of the perverse incentive that over-sized delivers higher margins. People will be too easily convinced to pay extra (generally at linear relationship) for size and there's not a linear relationship in size versus margins.

In the US and probably Canada, there's an expectation that spending 8 hours in one day going somewhere is easily doable. (as in 800 km in 8 hours with a few 10-30 minute breaks for gasoline or food). It doesn't seem like that's a particularly normal thing for a European to do.

And I mean, this is exactly 100% my experience currently. Our sedan could use replacement, it's about to hit the 200k miles mark, and given it's primarily used by my wife for inter-town transit, I would happily buy her an electric car, but a new electric car is hopelessly out of our reach financially. And I make six figures!

    Hell, if somebody made something new like a base 
    model 90s Civic into a $15k EV without extra 
    luxury nonsense I don’t actually need

The cost of much of the "luxury nonsense" like power windows and heated seats is heavily amortized since the tooling etc. is shared with the more expensive vehicles, and the actual material costs are low.

Think about it; heated seats are just some simple heating coils. You can get something functionally equivalent that plugs into your cigarette lighter adapter for like $10 from Amazon. It ain't adding that much to the cost of your car.

It might sound silly, but not everyone looks at things through a utilitarian view.

The US is afraid of competition in the automotive industry and the current import tariffs and taxes on cars are a bit of an elephant in the room here, too.

Longer trips are actually easier in an EV because you have no expectation of being able to power through without stopping for breaks. And it adds the option of charging overnight at a hotel.

It's the medium distance trips that are harder in an EV. A 500-800km trip is something people without kids expect to be able to do without any breaks.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LEU0252881500A

There simply isn't data to back this up.

What you are referring to is capital gains (CEO pay) compared to hourly pay (employee pay), which is a misleading apples to oranges comparison.

EVs also have a battery which can be $20k, and electric motors which are $10k. This really makes them awful on the used market when the warranty runs out. If a used Model 3 needs a battery it is basically scrap.

There are a bunch more in this price range due to launch next year.

Cheap-ish electric cars exist, they're just not, generally, suited to US consumer preferences.

I assumed it was the infamous wage vs productivity chart.

https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

This certainly aligns a lot better with what they're saying than talking about executive pay (though I'm sure that's also part of the problem).

But yeah, don't buy a Prius Prime for the track. But it'll work great for going to the grocery store for a very wide variety of lifestyles and living situations.

My father for instance wouldn't get one because he will drive to the beach a couple times each summer, and does not want to have to deal with waiting while charging. However, he is also the type who stops for rests while driving. But he, being old and stubborn, didn't want to hear it.

See the CARB Regulation section here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Range_extender

Why not instead set a carbon price and otherwise let the market and owners decide what mix of gasoline and grid electricity to use?

Also, for the duration that most new car buyers own any car, any difference of maintenance liability of even a traditional ICE vehicle is close to negligible. Most new car buyers pay for a couple of years of fluid changes, tires, and brakes... then they trade in the car. They're going to pay similar costs no matter the architecture.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/find-me-the-cpi-inflation-d...

New cars actually match the total average inflation the closest of any categories (22.3% for new cars vs 22.1% all items). Also interesting to note that food is up 30.7%, transport is up 39.5 % and shelter is up 27.6% in the past 5 years!

This is exactly the kind of problem regulations are meant to solve. Preventing false advertising and bringing information to all market participants make the market more efficient.

Though, I don't think it's possible to talk about this without also talking about the ludicrous salaries now drawn by the executives either.

One way of looking at it, validating the point that others have already made in their comments, it is that there are no bargain basement cars anymore; everything now comes with an automatic transmission, air conditioning, power locks and windows, cameras and sensors, etc. As recently as 2008 when I was buying my Prius, these things were optional on many models. Today's compact cars are, I think, the size of midsize cars from 20 years ago too.

It's kind of like housing in America where the cost per square foot didn't actually rise much in some places, but the average home is now twice the size, so the average home price doubled.

And is not tariffed to the point they are not competitive.

I'm on the fence as to whether tariffs are good or bad, but I do wonder if an external player might not be able to come in and shake up the US auto industry.

I feel like the working class in the U.S. are paying way too much for what amounts to a necessity for their livelihood: the automobile. We'd all benefit (the planet that is) if the options included inexpensive electrics rather than merely gas and diesel.

I think they're referring to the practice of making cars larger to pass as trucks so they are faced with more lax fuel-efficiency standards.

Do you really want a plugin car that loses its charge in 30 minutes?

Until the engine that powers a PHEV is nearly drop-in ready for a replacement (for example, going to your local auto parts store and buying a replacement like a battery) then companies need to have service technicians and production lines to support these "engines" (they're fancy generators at this point).

However, that would also require automakers to standardize to some degree or potentially cannibalize their own business.

We've already seen this with batteries/panels in the consumer space in regards to solar. I can buy whatever packs of cells I want, and as long as the voltages match up, I can mix and match to my hearts content. If I can only get service for my Jeep PHEV from Jeep because the drivetrain is a bespoke black box and parts are impossible to get, then we'll keep seeing customers continuing to opt for traditional gas vehicles or full EVs. PHEV is just too complicated to support long term (imo).

If 90% of your trips can be covered by a normal EV, then I would make the argument that you should buy one of those (secondhand even!) and then rent a vehicle for the instances where you need AWD. The fuel and tax savings should likely make up for it in the long run. For that one year that you don't go skiing in the mountains, then you're coming out on top financially!

The problem is that cars are not treated like most other commodities. E.g. You don't have to buy a license to use a microwave or register it with the government. The closest analog is if you live somewhere with sales tax.

With an electric car, how can one tell if the pack has been charged all the way up to 100% all the time (vs. the much better 40-70% range)?

This is the "term premium" of batteries it seems, and I honestly don't know if there's a reliable answer.

With the move to trucks and ethanol credits, those hacks are no longer cost-effective.

There are also choices you can make during the registration process that will change the costs a bit. Quoting a fixed price for that would require yet more small print disclosing that certain choices were made.

I just don't see how it works out. Registration costs money. Not just when you buy the car, but over and over and over throughout the time you own it. You should know this as a driver. Further, the registration cost does not vary by dealer, so you don't need to know it in order to negotiate the best price.

30' are enough to go to work, where I can recharge during the day for the return leg. 30' are enough for any daily errand, too, so that would not be a problem.

Finally, for long trips, I'd use it as a "real" car with its internal combustion engine.

A lot of people do a lot of bad thinking when they say "oh, well, inflation is umptybumpkins percent, so the fact that cars are that much more expensive is 'just' inflation, and thus isn't anything".

But inflation is prices going up. When the various sources release "how large inflation is", they are telling you "this is how much prices went up". Ignoring prices going up because "oh, the prices went up because of inflation" is basically using the thing's own existence to argue that it doesn't exist, which, while abstractly sort of impressive, is not strong thinking.

There are some arguments about what causes prices to go up, but that's a separate question.

My observations, which certainly don't reflect the current state of the tech (although if I'm buying a used EV, I'm not buying the current tech). But that's my bias nonetheless. I do think I overemphasized this, though, because while this is what makes me shy away from the idea of used EVs, it's not the reason why I avoid buying cars that are too new (which includes pretty much all EVs).

GP's argument can be countered with basically every hybrid getting better mileage than its ICE sibling in city traffic.

Correct. Instead of a vague "registration fees may apply" disclaimer now there's a "registration fees assuming <city>, <state>" disclaimer. It's definitely not worse for anyone, and is arguably better for the customers who will register in <city>, <state>. That's a green light for a utilitarian.

Yes? Probably half of all my drives are 30 minutes or less, round trip. Some get closer to 40ish minutes of driving on battery, which would cover more like 90% of my drives.

AFAIK it's not (usually?) two drive trains, it's one electric drive train and a generator that's way smaller than a normal gasoline engine.

Some of the brands you listed aren't even really available in the US, or if they are that are 100% marked up with tariffs.

Big cars are definitely a thing in the US, but I'd kill for a ~$20k smaller EV hatch commuter to swap out my Model 3.

Dealerships generally get your name and phone number if you call them to ask about the price including fees and taxes. If you make them post defaults online, they get nothing from you. Clearly better.

> There are also choices you can make during the registration process that will change the costs a bit.

I'm curious about this. Do you have some examples?

Besides GP is also talking about things like the shipping fee, which are decidedly not variable or unknown. The dealership knows how much it costs them to ship the car from the factory and how much they want to charge you. They just choose not to disclose it.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

Your nominal charts are extremely misleading. Real wages have gone up about 10% since the GFC. Is it up? Yeah, but that is quite a tiny amount annually, not even an additional pack of gum.

So if you're looking for a car with the least amount of battery degradation between purchase and EOL, buying a used EV rather than new is actually the better decision.

Getting all of that capability in one car is very convenient. We replaced an 11 year old gas vehicle, and I don't expect that this PHEV one will last us as long. But it was the right car for us in our current situation.

I'd feel a lot better about the state of the battery if I bought one used, rather than the state of the ICE. It's possible to borescope it, but you have no way of telling how long the previous owner went between oil changes, if they flogged it out to redline regularly, etc.

Ultimately, you CAN "win" by doing really well with a low-end model, but the chance of losing big is there, too.

PHEV isn't that much more complex than an ICE. The transaxle is typically mechanically simpler, and you have two electric motor/generators instead of an electric motor (starter) and an electric generator (alternator). There's a big battery you need to find room for, and the power wiring. And the engine control is significantly different, but if it doesn't work, swap the ECU works as well for an ICE and PHEV.

The other 10% are beyond any practical battery range, so a BEV isn't an option.

Yeah, we could go back to suction cup phone mounts on the windshield if we had to, but that feels pretty stupid when the car has a 12" screen in the dashboard.

You can get an EV, and then have to deal with half a dozen barely competent charging networks each with their own donkey, slow and insecure app, their own quirks and pricing schemes, etc. For some, the tradeoff is worth it, for others it isn't.

You can also get a PHEV, which could allow you to use one car for commuting purely on electric power - even if you are lugging around an entire ICE power train - and then also take the family out to the countryside over the weekend. Without the having to deal with a bunch of annoyed passangers when you are stuck midway through your journey and the charging station you are trying to use is giving you the massively helpeful error message of "Charging failed, please try again later".

[0] https://www.autoinsurance.com/research/car-ownership-statist...

I email, not call, and I lie. About my name, phone number, all of it. Best they will ever get is zip code. They could post defaults, but then I still don't know the actual OTD price -- it's already a hassle today because I have to be aware that dealers will advertise discounts that are only available in-state, and only mention that detail in the small print. I live in a metro that spans two states so this is common.

> I'm curious about this. Do you have some examples?

My state has a plethora of plate designs, and how much you pay depends on which you pick (it's really just a scheme for getting more revenue, of course). I can also choose (dependent on the vehicle, not all qualify) to pay for an extended registration period.

> They just choose not to disclose it.

I agree that they should disclose it. And they are required to by law. It's on the Monroney sticker, and it is included under "Total MSRP".

My impressions had been that it largely mirrors the EV market: A few early PHEV models (such as the BMW i3) had poor battery management leading to unreliable battery packs. This was fixed in subsequent generations and is not a problem unless you are scraping the bottom of the used market. That's much the same as how EV batteries are generally reliable unless you buy early versions of certain problematic models (particularly the Nissan Leaf).

It might be thirty minutes on the highway, as new PHEV cars have ranges in the 30-40 miles range. But if you're driving in the city, 30 miles is enough to get you basically anywhere you want to go and back, even if traffic makes it a 2 hour trip.

Truth is not many want to risk buying a used electric car and the depreciation reflects that.

PHEVs are lovely to drive, and availability of gas stations means almost no planning is needed. Fuel low, stop in for 5 minutes and good to go for hundreds of miles (current one does 500-600/tank depending on conditions)

So, if "30 minutes" was actually how you measured range (and not in miles), the average worker in the longest group would burn fuel for 3 minutes, instead of 33 minutes. This is 90% less fuel than a traditional hybrid car would use in the same time.

BMW i3 owner here. The i3 never had such issues and has been praised for its overall great engineering (see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjPIuLz5VFI and https://evclinic.eu/2024/11/03/which-used-ev-to-buy-a-beginn...). It is also not a PHEV but an EV that had an option for a range extender.

I don't get it. We already have an EV. Why would I buy more EVs? The one that gets commuted in every day is already in our driveway. It already does the work. It doesn't need replacing, or adding to.

I'm a car person. There are so many cars I want to own in my life, so much to experience. I will admit I briefly considered buying a 10 year old BMW i3 BEV because it seemed like a fun runabout for not much money, but most of the _other_ EVs on the market serve the "practical" market, or are too expensive. I bought a Fiat 500 Abarth because it's an absolute insane hoot to drive. I bought a roadster. These are not exactly markets served by EVs. At the very least, we need another decade or two of sales to build up the inventory of interesting/unique/quirky models that get introduced by manufacturers over time.

But mostly, I want something fun to drive with character- a nice gearshift, an exhilarating powerband, ... not another competent appliance. We have a competent appliance at home.

The EV market isn't saturated, but just because an EV owner doesn't serially buy EVs doesn't mean the shine has come off. It just means the 100,000 mile, 6 year old Model 3 does exactly what it did the day we bought it, and there's no reason to replace it.

> PHEV isn't that much more complex than an ICE.

I've been an owner/operator of two Gen3 Prii for 14 years and agree in practice even though in theory I would agree with the complexity argument. The one maintenance hit for both was for the vacuum pump needed for brakes/etc because the car cannot assume the engine is always running.

Toyota has moved to hybrid only for the Camry and Sienna. This is an indicator to me that technology maturity and US manufacturing is where it needs to be for broad adoption.

The US is one crisis away from our expensive to maintain road infrastructure being unsustainable. The American people are one crisis away from their $60k SUV being worth nothing and still owing a four figure note against it. They're also one fuel crisis away from being unable to pay to use it. And we don't really have any alternatives at a scale to handle those sorts of things.

We're really going to have egg on our face at some point. And the only option will be to import affordable EVs the rest of the world has been building and developing.

So for example, if the goal is to stimulate domestic automakers to be more competitive without unnecessarily risking killing them off entirely, a moderate tariff that pushes the price of ultra cheap foreign cars up to a level that’s reasonably achievable by the domestic automakers but still well below the average price could be a good thing.

Where tariffs are just plain bad is when they’re so high that domestic manufacturers don’t even have to think about trying to compete and can continue to drive up prices unabated.

In Europe the numbers are even worse. I'm fairly convinced only rich people and businesses buy new cars

Typed this before I saw that you said expensive. I’ll leave my comment anyway.

If we had a functioning housing market, you'd see something pretty similar there too. The wealthiest would be the ones paying for nearly all the new construction, instead of driving up the cost of housing for everyone else.

The median household income is ~$75k. There's ~131M households in the US. This means there are 65M households making more than $75k/yr.

But yes, generally speaking wealthier people are the ones buying new cars with a lot of people buying used models.

I'm not yet convinced that BYD cars ARE well made yet though. When Hyundai had a similar amount of mistrust from American consumers, they improved their standing by offering a very compelling warranty, 100k miles or 10 years. The problem is I don't know if I can trust BYD the COMPANY that much.

I’d really love to see an EV that’s in line with the virtues of the Honda Fit, Honda Element, and Toyota Matrix — not sexy or fancy, but cheap, insanely practical little “everything cars” that can take on anything you throw at them with tons of cargo space, fold flat seating, stock roof rack, etc — cars that are made for doing things instead of impressing the neighbor or acting as a status symbol.

There’s absolutely nothing like this in the EV space right now. The closest thing that’s upcoming is Rivian’s R3, which isn’t likely to be as cheap as the Fit/Element/Matrix were.

Any bit of telemetry in a modern EV is also in a modern ICE. There's no reason to hate on EV's for telemetry, you have to hate on the entire modern auto industry.

Yes. It's a huge expense for a lot of Americans. Either the primary expense, or just behind housing.

> assuming people don't want to drive vehicles older than a decade

That's not a great assumption, especially if you're looking at people with less money. The normal lifespan of a car is 15-25yrs, and _somebody_ is driving those cars.

As you suspect though, the flow of new vehicles largely goes into wealthier people (average incomes in the $100k range), and after 6-10yrs the used cars trickle down to everyone else and live ~20yrs in total. There exist a number of exceptions (e.g., people getting a new car for reliability and not realizing that you could replace the engine and transmission three times over for the extra premium they're paying -- trying to do the right thing and make a fiscally responsible decision but accidentally doing something more expensive), but those aren't the norm.

It's such a shame Honda won't sell the e here. I'm not going to say "I'd buy one in a second" because I'm not paying new car prices for one, but I wouldn't have bought a Fit new either. And yet, people bought the Fit new. And I'd happily buy a used Fit, it was actually on my runabout shopping list as well. (Fit with a manual trans).

That assumption has been dead since cash for clunkers. Even American made cars will hit 200k miles. There's ZERO value to a "new" car. You would be outright stupid to pay $10k for some probably not possible "bare bones" car when you could just buy the decade old Corolla down the street with 100k miles that's only $5k. It will even have fairly modern safety. This is true even in the modern post-COVID hyper contracted used car market.

I have an ICE but I only fill the tank once or maybe twice most months.

I'd expect it operates in mode 2 a lot when at highway speeds, but not accelerating.

This page from KBB says that the 2008 Chevy Aveo "had a starting MSRP of $10,610 when new." https://www.kbb.com/chevrolet/aveo/2008/

However, KBB's page for the 2008 Versa also says that it "had a starting MSRP of $14,025 when new" so maybe you're right? Maybe they're adjusting for inflation? It was a crazy time, obviously, with deflation so maybe there were huge discounts.

And of course the EV market is still actually growing in the US. It's just that companies like Tesla, Kia/Hyundai, and other foreign companies with factories in the US are picking up the slack left by the likes of GM, Ford, Stellantis, etc.

Protectionism in the form of tariffs and incentives is making things worse. It's temporarily succeeding at keeping competition out of the door but it's failing at making local industry more competitive. Especially in the international market where US companies enjoy neither the benefits of import tariffs nor incentives. They have to compete on merit with the likes of BYD there. And that's obviously going to cause some issues.

Dropping incentives and tariffs would obviously be short term disruptive but I don't think it changes the outcome long term. Which is that GM either catches up or falls over (wouldn't be the first time). Either way, them delaying investments in EVs is not a sign of them adapting. Same for Ford, which has the same problem and is doing the same. Same for Stellantis. They are favoring short term profits over a long term plan. That's because protectionism is temporarily excusing them from having to compete.

That's not something they can dodge long term. Somebody will step up if it is not them.

Here's the truth based on an observation: Tesla's battery capacity degrades 12% after 200k miles. Source: https://insideevs.com/news/664106/tesla-battery-capacity-deg...

200k miles is effectively the lifetime of a car. Average US person drives 10k miles so that's 20 years of driving.

Tesla's warranty "guarantee at least 70 percent retention of battery capacity over 8 years and 100,000 miles or more". Source: https://www.motortrend.com/features/tesla-battery-warranty/

And latest chemistries are even better. In 2020 Jeff Dahn (who leads battery research group in Canada funded by Tesla) published a paper about million mile battery. Source: https://www.electrochem.org/dahn-unveils-million-mile-batter...

Since Tesla funds Dahn's research, they get the IP. This is just in the lab but those advancements are trickling, over time, to Tesla's battery making (and not just Tesla: every battery maker does research to make batteries cheaper and last longer).

(I on the other hand drive into a city about 60+ minutes away so I don't know what the percentage is but I do a fair number of trips an hour+ away.)

I bought my only-ever (and probably last-ever, as I can't stomach the prices now) new car as a 2012 Nissan Sentra, and I think it was around $14k and was definitely a way, way better car than the infamous Chevy Aveo (and a big step up from the Versa in size, power, et c., for that matter).

Hybrids use a smaller engine that is running in a more efficient operating range during cruising (i.e. not pulling a huge vacuum and moving lots of parts the whole time). The battery/motor comes in for acceleration.

Unlike combustion engines, electric stuff isn't really inefficient at low load.

They're not quite the same thing. All other things equal, if a price increase is "just" inflation then it takes the same number of hours of work to buy the car (or equivalently, the car is worth the same number of loaves of bread).

The alternative is that car prices have increased relative to other goods. This could happen through higher-quality/more featureful/bigger cars (which would be removed from the inflation calculation), or it could come because of some idiosyncratic feature of the industry like the car-chip shortage during covid.

For newer cars it's hard to tell for sure since the tech has improved significantly in recent years. But even the earlier cars have done better than people expected.

A quick google turns up lots of sources you can read. Here are a few:

https://unitil.com/blog/electric-car-battery-life-fact-vs-fi...

https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-longevity

https://unitil.com/blog/electric-car-battery-life-fact-vs-fi...

The cost of a GB of hard drive is failing spectacularly. The price of health care went up much more than the price of eggs. So what is the "real" inflation?

Government gets to pick what they use to define inflation so they can manipulate "inflation" numbers. And manipulate they do.

What you should look at is money printing: how much money did the government print. This is about 8% yearly for US.

This money debasement is eventually reflected in prices.

Some things get cheaper, because we can produce them more efficiently (like hard drives). Some things get even more expensive than 8% because we produce them less efficiently (health care insurance or college diplomas).

So to answer your question: cars costs more mostly because the government prints money, which devalues your dollars and car makers are not getting more efficient at making cars to counter currency debasement.

Electrifying the locks led to the idea of RF transmitters as a secondary switch. Now there’s hardware for that, and a radio receiver. Gotta make it flash the lights, so that’s another relay and a wiring harness to the lighting system. Gotta beep the horn too, more wires. Maybe make it so you can hold the button to crack the power windows on a hot day; it’s just wire.

Fast forward 30 years, now everything talks to everything and I’d argue they don’t want to have to maintain a bunch of different firmware configurations to support fine-grained dealership options.

That’s my hunch anyway.

The "light truck" designation is made on the basis of features like cargo capacity and ground clearance. The Subaru Outback was properly classified as a car until the smaller PT Cruiser got its truck designation and they justifiably complained.

That's just down to charging infrastructure no? Sure, there are physical limits to how much electricity one can move in a given time, but we are nowhere at those physical limits.

So it's just down to infrastructure in the end. If there was infrastructure to quickly and reliably charge EVs, ICE would only have niche advantages.

No one thinks about "eventually." That's a long time and may never happen to them. "Now" is more important.

You’ll use wear out your brake pads way less, but they are still used very frequently (every time you make a complete stop in fact).

How much of that has to do with the USA's extreme needs for range and size?

There are places I'd be happy to drive a subcompact with a 300km range (eg. the Byd Dolphin), but most of the USA that kind of vehicle wouldn't be safe or practical. That's an awful lot of expensive battery-mass the Byd Dolphin doesn't have to pay for.

For two decades there has been a roughly free 5% or so in fuel economy available to any ICE car if only we could manage to be slightly more patient drivers, but American car buyers would literally rather spend twice the cost on a V8, gasoline truck, that gets worse fuel economy than it's $8k more expensive diesel variant, worse performance, and often a less reliable engine.

Americans will swear that a ten cent increase in gas prices will drive them to financial ruin, and then choose to buy the SUV made out of a terrible truck chassis that gets 20mpg. They did this despite having to learn the hard way back in 2008 what it actually meant for gas to be expensive.

-At 50k miles; EVs $600, Plug-in $1,050, ICE $1,400.

-100k miles; EVs $2,000, Plug-ins $2,600, ICE $4,400.

-200k miles; EVs $6,300, Plug-ins $5,900, ICE $12,300.

EVs use about 30kWh to go 100 miles [3] and at the US national average for electricity [4], that would be about $ 9,978 to drive 200k miles. ICE vehicles vary, but 35 mpg combined is pretty average for compact cars. At the US national average for gasoline [5], that is $ 17,548 to drive 200k miles. Plug-in hybrids use about 29kWh to go 100 miles and about 48 mpg. Just assuming 50/50 driving on gas or electric, that’s about $11,220 to drive 200k miles.

So maintenance and fuel cost over 200k miles would be roughly:

-EVs $18,852

-Plug-in Hybrids $17,120

-ICE $29,848

[0] https://thedriven.io/2024/09/19/new-study-finds-vast-majorit...

[1] https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-mil...

[2] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/owning-an-electric-car-...

[3] https://www.perchenergy.com/energy-calculators/electric-car-...

[4] https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/

[5] https://gasprices.aaa.com/

They're sometimes overpriced (due to dealer upsell) and sometimes a good way to estimate what the manufacturer estimates that routine maintenance will cost, at least using their in-house service center. They can run $1000 to several thousand dollars for luxury cars.

Very little as far as I can see; this is a simple lack of competition. Most of the really long range vehicles are super premium products that are sold in relatively low numbers to people who can afford them rather than to people that need that kind of range (or rather thing that they do, it is a bit irrational in many cases).

Most US manufacturers simply compensate their lack of efficiency with more battery and cost. It allows them to keep up with e.g. Tesla and Kia in terms of range. So, they'll put in 85kwh instead of 65kwh. Or even more.

Same range but at a higher cost. But of course the flip-side is that Tesla can just effortlessly undercut their pricing whenever they are having surpluses. They sell the same cars for much less abroad.

It's also telling that Tesla has sold more Cybertrucks last quarter than all other EV trucks combined. It's not a very practical truck. But it looks cool. They've barely even started to ramp up production and they are already running circles around their competitors. No sign of a lack of demand there. Lots of signs of an outclassed competition that is simply not able to keep up.

For most of my trips I was also able to use block heater plugs, which are ubiquitous in Western Canada. 120V isn't enough to get a full charge overnight, but 8-10 hours of charging at 120V is still adds a nice boost.

It's a combination of everything. Trucks keep getting bigger because it's how they game the fuel efficiency requirements. Small cars get bigger because of safety standards. Consumers in the US don't really want small cars, partly because we've gotten bigger a partly because it's terrifying to be on the road with the aforementioned trucks.

Similarly, cars seem really boring these days because most people want something big enough (i.e. CUV like the RAV4), and because safety standards for things like pedestrian impact have constrained the designers. So, we end up with a bunch of CUVs that I can't tell apart.

Any time you're not at highway cruising speed, it's just in the normal position where the electric motor drives it (the engine only functions as a generator). It's effectively an electric car with a small, far under provisioned in Civic terms, engine that comes on to top the battery up sometimes if regen braking isn't enough.

At highway speeds, the gearbox has the engine drive. And since it's a less powerful engine, it will have better fuel economy than one that has to ever handle acceleration from a standstill.

And the whole thing weighs about 3200-3400lb, far less than any electric vehicle. So you're "lugging" around less.

Where > 95% of trips are 2x30 mile trips (daily commuting); the vehicle is accelerating and decelerating the extra weight for no benefit. You have the increased battery wear, where you exceed the optimal charging range 15-80% on LiPo. Then the additional ICE factors such as brake wear, oil changes, fuel rot (if you always charge and buy gas once a quarter), coolant changes, an an exhaust system increase maintenance necessities significantly (where a brushless motor has no need for oil or open coolant).

Hybrids can also promote "green washing" ~ it's never charged and driven on short commute trips, the system is always charging the electric, using more gas than if it were only gas, with lower performance, a shorter battery life, and more components to fail.

The best option, is somewhere between renting an hybridICE for less than once a quarter > 200 mile one way, road trips; and, if your household driving is out of norms, ie > 200 miles road trips every week, having a car in the household fleet that is hybrid/ice.

So 25 years on, without even looking anything up, it's pretty reasonable to assume no one was selling a car for that same price and adding airbags and ABS for the U. S. market. But if one insists on a source, Motortrend said they sold for around $12K in 2010: https://www.motortrend.com/cars/chevrolet/aveo/2010/

It's a really simple and clever solution. So much so that brain hurts to think about

If cars only lasted 3 years instead of the 20+ they do today (average car is 12 years old), there would be demand for cars that don't even have a heater by people who want to save money.

It works. People hates it. The issues with it are mostly theoretical or matters of preferences. That's hallmark Toyota, isn't it...

Key word: WAS

Of course, modern EVs, and basically all Teslas, have bigger batteries with better cooling, so it's no longer an issue. But the belief won't die, just like how people still make memes about Java being slow as if it's still 1998.

It is possible to make cheaper cars, but they aren't competitive against nicer used cars. Back when cars didn't last very long it was viable to sell a car with basic amenities, like keyed locks, roll up windows, a single exterior mirror, no stereo, no AC, etc. But now, few are going to pay the prices that would demand when a used car for around the same price has all of those features. This pressure extends to cars of any drivetrain type.

Royal Mail drivers in the UK found themselves being disciplined for exceeding telematics thresholds when the company transitioned back to petrol-engined vans, from diesel, because they are driven in a very different manner.

In my EV6, I have a paddle on the left of my steering wheel that I use (almost) exclusively for braking. It 100% only uses regenerative braking, and I can definitely tell the difference, as its stops are much more subtle than when using the brake pedal for stopping (even when coming to a stop super gently).

More evidence that it doesn't use friction brakes: when I use the left paddle to brake, the car will sometimes edge forward (just an inch or two). With friction braking, this obviously never happens.

I have a Model 3, and even when the driving mode is set to "Stop" (enabling one-pedal driving), I know that it's applying the friction brakes at low speeds, even when the battery is warm and not full.

Regen isn't enough to slow the car to a stop, even in ideal conditions, and it certainly can't hold the car in place.

Maybe YOU won't, but others will.

I paid $60K for my Model 3 Performance. Yes, I chose to plan out my charging stops when I take my annual 1300 mile road trip from Portland to Santa Clara, or my recent 2,400 mile road trip from Portland to San Diego.

But I CHOSE to plan them. You don't HAVE to. The car's built-in nav will easy plan charging stops for you. I just choose to plan them out ahead of time (Using ABetterRoutePlanner.com) to min-max my charging time. IE, I can tell ABRP "This will be a stop where I expect to spend at least 30 minutes", and it will adjust the rest of the charging plan accordingly. Or I can tell it to stop at specific chargers that might have a specific place I want to eat, or whatever, but my usual workflow is to set all my destinations (actual destinations, not including chargers), hit Plan Drive, and then make some minor adjustments to the charging plan.

I suppose in some way, I'm sort of proving your point. But it's not nearly the chore you make it out to be. In fact, I actually enjoy the planning. Of course, one person's joy is another's drudgery.

The battery pack in a Model Y weighs 1700 lbs and provides 330 miles of range. A RAV4 Prime (PHEV) has a 14.5 gallon gas tank, which provides 500 miles of range from 90 lbs of gas - in addition to the smaller 300 lb battery pack providing 42 miles range. The additional weight of the drivetrain components offsets the savings from not lugging around a huge battery. Overall, the vehicles end up with similar weight, but the RAV4 has much longer range. By default, the RAV4 prime runs on EV mode until the battery runs down. With both vehicles, you’re taking an efficiency hit on the average drive for having the option of taking longer trips.

Of course, both vehicles are a big environmental win over old ICE cars, because they will move you more miles per carbon emitted. Which one works better for you depends on your use-case. If you want to lower the environmental impact if you commute even more, ride a bicycle or something.

Look, come on. There's no need to turn every comment into a chance to bash a whole country. I bet there aren't many countries you think so poorly of that you'd make sweeping statements about their populations. Gas prices affect all prices due to direct logistics costs and the increases every employee needs all along every supply chain. That's the problem with them.

Since the fee doesn’t actually reflect anything related to cost of delivery, it’s hard to see it as anything other than hiding part of the MSRP so that they can lie about cheaper prices in advertisements.

Second, if you wrap inflation into your salary like that you are obscuring some important aspects of inflation, most especially the various lag effects that result in your salary being the last thing to update.

While understanding "purchasing power" (the term for what you are trying to describe) is important, it doesn't mean inflation is non-existent. It still has effects on savings, effects on assets, effects due to the aforementioned delays as it flows through the economy, and is in general not something you should view as any sort of "cancelling" like that, or, if you do, only as a final result, not an excuse to just wave it away like it's all just an artifact.

Getting into the technician menus on Teslas is well documented, they also report a ton of data and can do a lot of diagnostics on the battery.

Batteries last a LONG time assuming the vehicle manufacturer has put proper heat and SoC management into the battery controller (ie, not a Nissan Leaf).

I thought my 7 year old Ford Focus EV would be half the range of its 110mi battery by now but it still posts near-perfect range (it's lost about 5%).

Honestly, _averaging_ 300 KW is probably within a factor of 2 of the highest we'll do for light vehicles given economic (how much electric distribution infrastructure can an 8-32 stall charging station have?) and practical (how heavy and stiff can the charging cable be?) limits.

It's unlikely EV charging speed will ever match existing ICEs. Relatively long recharge times are an intrinsic trade-off of BEV technology which needs to be engineered around, mostly by having enormous and heavy batteries.

It's almost like there is a lesson to be learned. Make a "cheap" electric car worth buying, and people will buy it.

I've been Using it as a honest work truck in the civil engineering / construction world, and have been able to get 600 miles from a tank without trying too hard. I've seen plenty of short (~20 mile) trips nearing 30mpg, which is above stated estimates. 23-25mpg for mixed use driving off road, on road, idling, etc. I'm on jobsites a lot, and just even having working AC / full host of accessories with the ICE engine powered down, acting as a generator when needed, is a big quality of life upgrade.

Now explain the remaining 15k of price difference!

Sure another 5 or 6k is subsidies from the Chinese government to the manufacturers, but there is still another $10k more that American cars cost VS Chinese cars.

Does this require further work? Yes of course. We are definitely not there yet, and we may never get there. But let's not pretend that this is an insurmountable problem.

On the engineering side:

- Swapping requires standardization of batteries across models and manufacturers. To accommodate different vehicles the batteries will need to be rather small so most vehicles will need multiple swapped every time

- Requires more space and weight because the battery cannot be structural. This will reduce the overall range of EVs

- Connectors for high voltage, signalling, cooling fluid, and high strength mechanical rated for thousands of cycles in the face of road grime and poorly maintained swap robots will not be small. Cooling system contamination will be a serious concern.

On the financial side:

- Batteries are expensive, how do you track and reclaim them across the entire continent? What about theft? Destruction insurance?

- With swappable batteries the incentive is to store them at 100% then run them 100% to 0%, which is especially bad for battery longevity

- How do you deal with batteries swapped at different 'swap' networks?

On the user side:

- What if the swap station is out of batteries when you need them? Are you always gambling on holiday weekends that you won't need to sit for hours charging (if that is even possible!)?

- Since some batteries will be more worn than others, how do you deal with constant variability of range because maybe last week you got a new set of batteries and next week you'll get an older set with only 80% capacity left.

- Are you allowed to charge at home? How is the wear from that charged?

- Did I buy a battery with my car, or are cars no longer batteries included? If my car came with a battery, how do I know I get it back? Do I get paid for the wear other users put on it? Do I need to retrieve my battery from the same station on the way home after a road trip?

That's just off the top of my head. I'm sure there are others. Most of these issues are solvable with unlikely levels of corporate cooperation or immense levels of excess capital expenditure. However, they all cost money and will reduce the economic viability of battery-swap EVs versus every other vehicle type.

https://www.autopadre.com/vehicle-weight/nissan-leaf

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-lithium-ion-batteri...

Just wanted to set the record straight! Good to see others in the civil field represented here.