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The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

(www.wsj.com)
158 points voisin | 1 comments | 17 Nov 24 23:52 UTC | HN request time: 0.218s | source
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bartvk ◴[18 Nov 24 00:05 UTC] No.42168473[source]▶
https://archive.ph/9oIT4

I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

That's a nitpick though. All in all, an interesting article, which can be summarized as: the EV car market is lacking demand, and car makers definitely don't want to make cheap EVs since it's already so hard.

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rootusrootus ◴[18 Nov 24 00:10 UTC] No.42168514[source]▶
> the EV car market is lacking demand

There is scant evidence for this. Every time prices improve, sales surge. Sounds like the demand is there, but price matters. As it always has.

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cosmic_cheese ◴[18 Nov 24 00:18 UTC] No.42168553[source]▶
Yep. Midrange-to-expensive EVs have been around for long enough that pretty much everybody in those market segments who are currently interested have already bought one. Additionally, the segment has been flooded with midsize SUVs, with the odd midsize sedan — variety is sorely lacking.

Between these two, quite a considerable market is being left unaddressed. The first to fill these niches with affordable models that don’t have weird quirks or make strange tradeoffs will likely do well.

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matthewdgreen ◴[18 Nov 24 15:11 UTC] No.42173000[source]▶
A big part of that market is being addressed by used EVs, which are getting much cheaper right now as they age out of new-car-buyers' households. https://www.kbb.com/cars-for-sale/used/tesla
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JohnFen ◴[18 Nov 24 15:18 UTC] No.42173113[source]▶
I wouldn't buy a used EV because the battery pack is that much closer to needing to be replaced, which effectively totals the vehicle.
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1. 542354234235 ◴[18 Nov 24 18:11 UTC] No.42175126[source]▶
A recent analysis of 10,000 EV vehicles shows that they only lose about 1.8% capacity per year[0], so they are perfectly useable up to 150-200k, which is the same general useful lifespan of ICE vehicles. [1] EVs and Plug-in Hybrids cost less to maintain than ICE vehicles. [2] Over 200k miles, ICE vehicles are about double the maintenance cost of EVs or Plug-in hybrids, and EVs are slightly more than Plug-in hybrids.

-At 50k miles; EVs $600, Plug-in $1,050, ICE $1,400.

-100k miles; EVs $2,000, Plug-ins $2,600, ICE $4,400.

-200k miles; EVs $6,300, Plug-ins $5,900, ICE $12,300.

EVs use about 30kWh to go 100 miles [3] and at the US national average for electricity [4], that would be about $ 9,978 to drive 200k miles. ICE vehicles vary, but 35 mpg combined is pretty average for compact cars. At the US national average for gasoline [5], that is $ 17,548 to drive 200k miles. Plug-in hybrids use about 29kWh to go 100 miles and about 48 mpg. Just assuming 50/50 driving on gas or electric, that’s about $11,220 to drive 200k miles.

So maintenance and fuel cost over 200k miles would be roughly:

-EVs $18,852

-Plug-in Hybrids $17,120

-ICE $29,848

[0] https://thedriven.io/2024/09/19/new-study-finds-vast-majorit...

[1] https://www.caranddriver.com/research/a32758625/how-many-mil...

[2] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/owning-an-electric-car-...

[3] https://www.perchenergy.com/energy-calculators/electric-car-...

[4] https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/

[5] https://gasprices.aaa.com/