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The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

(www.wsj.com)
152 points voisin | 2 comments | 17 Nov 24 23:52 UTC | HN request time: 0.411s | source
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bartvk ◴[18 Nov 24 00:05 UTC] No.42168473[source]▶
https://archive.ph/9oIT4

I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

That's a nitpick though. All in all, an interesting article, which can be summarized as: the EV car market is lacking demand, and car makers definitely don't want to make cheap EVs since it's already so hard.

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jillesvangurp ◴[18 Nov 24 17:05 UTC] No.42174403[source]▶
Lack of demand is the conventional explanation. But I think it is a bit of lazy and misleading one. I think there's plenty of demand for cheap EVs. But there's a problem with US manufacturing not being able to deliver those. Supply chains aren't there. Manufacturing capability and capacity isn't there. Etc.

And of course the EV market is still actually growing in the US. It's just that companies like Tesla, Kia/Hyundai, and other foreign companies with factories in the US are picking up the slack left by the likes of GM, Ford, Stellantis, etc.

Protectionism in the form of tariffs and incentives is making things worse. It's temporarily succeeding at keeping competition out of the door but it's failing at making local industry more competitive. Especially in the international market where US companies enjoy neither the benefits of import tariffs nor incentives. They have to compete on merit with the likes of BYD there. And that's obviously going to cause some issues.

Dropping incentives and tariffs would obviously be short term disruptive but I don't think it changes the outcome long term. Which is that GM either catches up or falls over (wouldn't be the first time). Either way, them delaying investments in EVs is not a sign of them adapting. Same for Ford, which has the same problem and is doing the same. Same for Stellantis. They are favoring short term profits over a long term plan. That's because protectionism is temporarily excusing them from having to compete.

That's not something they can dodge long term. Somebody will step up if it is not them.

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1. Pxtl ◴[18 Nov 24 17:45 UTC] No.42174845[source]▶
> I think there's plenty of demand for cheap EVs. But there's a problem with US manufacturing not being able to deliver those.

How much of that has to do with the USA's extreme needs for range and size?

There are places I'd be happy to drive a subcompact with a 300km range (eg. the Byd Dolphin), but most of the USA that kind of vehicle wouldn't be safe or practical. That's an awful lot of expensive battery-mass the Byd Dolphin doesn't have to pay for.

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2. jillesvangurp ◴[18 Nov 24 18:40 UTC] No.42175479[source]▶
> How much of that has to do with the USA's extreme needs for range and size?

Very little as far as I can see; this is a simple lack of competition. Most of the really long range vehicles are super premium products that are sold in relatively low numbers to people who can afford them rather than to people that need that kind of range (or rather thing that they do, it is a bit irrational in many cases).

Most US manufacturers simply compensate their lack of efficiency with more battery and cost. It allows them to keep up with e.g. Tesla and Kia in terms of range. So, they'll put in 85kwh instead of 65kwh. Or even more.

Same range but at a higher cost. But of course the flip-side is that Tesla can just effortlessly undercut their pricing whenever they are having surpluses. They sell the same cars for much less abroad.

It's also telling that Tesla has sold more Cybertrucks last quarter than all other EV trucks combined. It's not a very practical truck. But it looks cool. They've barely even started to ramp up production and they are already running circles around their competitors. No sign of a lack of demand there. Lots of signs of an outclassed competition that is simply not able to keep up.