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The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

(www.wsj.com)
152 points voisin | 5 comments | 17 Nov 24 23:52 UTC | HN request time: 0.002s | source
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bartvk ◴[18 Nov 24 00:05 UTC] No.42168473[source]▶
https://archive.ph/9oIT4

I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

That's a nitpick though. All in all, an interesting article, which can be summarized as: the EV car market is lacking demand, and car makers definitely don't want to make cheap EVs since it's already so hard.

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rootusrootus ◴[18 Nov 24 00:10 UTC] No.42168514[source]▶
> the EV car market is lacking demand

There is scant evidence for this. Every time prices improve, sales surge. Sounds like the demand is there, but price matters. As it always has.

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blackeyeblitzar ◴[18 Nov 24 00:20 UTC] No.42168564[source]▶
I guess I don’t understand the advantage of EVs really. Isn’t a plug in hybrid the best option? You can do everyday short trips on battery but also have the gas engine for longer trips. Sure it is more complicated but Toyota has shown that you can make this super reliable.
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jaco6 ◴[18 Nov 24 00:31 UTC] No.42168618[source]▶
An advantage of a pure EV over a hybrid is that you don’t have the maintenance liability of the combustion engine, cooling system, and transmission.
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1. avgDev ◴[18 Nov 24 15:20 UTC] No.42173131{3}[source]▶
Combustion engine is a perfected tech, which can easily last 100K+ miles. EVs do have a cooling system for the battery.

EVs also have a battery which can be $20k, and electric motors which are $10k. This really makes them awful on the used market when the warranty runs out. If a used Model 3 needs a battery it is basically scrap.

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2. cottsak ◴[18 Nov 24 15:43 UTC] No.42173432[source]▶
but a used Model 3 doesn't! and that's the fake news here. These batteries last ages. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doAcNVuTnXU
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3. avgDev ◴[18 Nov 24 16:14 UTC] No.42173787[source]▶
Seriously, a YouTube video is supposed to be proof that batteries last ages? What is ages? If you provide something I can read you might have been able to change my mind.

Truth is not many want to risk buying a used electric car and the depreciation reflects that.

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4. DennisP ◴[18 Nov 24 17:21 UTC] No.42174579{3}[source]▶
Generally, 10-20 years and 100K-200K miles. The US requires a warranty of 8 years and 100K miles.

For newer cars it's hard to tell for sure since the tech has improved significantly in recent years. But even the earlier cars have done better than people expected.

A quick google turns up lots of sources you can read. Here are a few:

https://unitil.com/blog/electric-car-battery-life-fact-vs-fi...

https://blog.evbox.com/ev-battery-longevity

https://unitil.com/blog/electric-car-battery-life-fact-vs-fi...

5. floxy ◴[21 Nov 24 00:03 UTC] No.42199524[source]▶
Battery costs keep coming down. We are now sub $100/kWh, and Chinese batteries are approaching $50/kWh. So a 75 kWh battery will cost less than $4000 in the not too distant future. And costs should be way more interesting when you have to replace your battery in 2040.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-lithium-ion-batteri...