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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

(www.dwarkesh.com)
174 points Philpax | 15 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 1.216s | source | bottom
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dicroce ◴[17 Apr 25 17:35 UTC] No.43719918[source]▶
Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.
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EA-3167 ◴[17 Apr 25 17:37 UTC] No.43719953[source]▶
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
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1. tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:39 UTC] No.43719975[source]▶
maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates

idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles

still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

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2. kadushka ◴[17 Apr 25 17:42 UTC] No.43719999[source]▶
ChatGPT has 400M weekly users. https://backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats
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3. aleph_minus_one ◴[17 Apr 25 17:43 UTC] No.43720015[source]▶
> idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles

> still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

Rather: outside of the HN and SV bubbles, the A"I"s and the fact how one can fall for this kind of hype and dupery is commonly ridiculed.

replies(2): >>43720075 #>>43720095 #
4. acdha ◴[17 Apr 25 17:46 UTC] No.43720048[source]▶
That doesn’t match what I hear from teachers, academics, or the librarians complaining that they are regularly getting requests for things which don’t exist. Everyone I know who’s been hiring has mentioned spammy applications with telltale LLM droppings, too.
replies(1): >>43720139 #
5. azinman2 ◴[17 Apr 25 17:47 UTC] No.43720071[source]▶
I really disagree. I had a masseuse tell me how he uses ChatGPT, told it a ton of info about himself, and now he uses it for personalized nutrition recommendations. I was in Atlanta over the weekend recently, at a random brunch spot, and overheard some _very_ not SV/tech folks talk about how they use it everyday. Their user growth rate shows this -- you don't hit hundreds of millions of people and have them all be HN/SV info-bubble folks.
replies(1): >>43720117 #
6. EA-3167 ◴[17 Apr 25 17:48 UTC] No.43720075[source]▶
This is accurate, doubly so for the people who treat it like a religion and fear the coming of their machine god. This, when what we actually have are (admittedly sometimes impressive) next-token predictors that you MUST double-check because they routinely hallucinate.

Then again I remember when people here were convinced that crypto was going to change the world, democratize money, end fiat currency, and that was just the start! Programs of enormous complexity and freedom would run on the blockchain, games and hell even societies would be built on the chain.

A lot of people here are easily blinded by promises of big money coming their way, and there's money in loudly falling for successive hype storms.

7. tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:48 UTC] No.43720085[source]▶
have you wondered how many of these are bots leveraging free chatgpt with proxied vpn IPs?

I'm a ChatGPT paying user but I know no one who's not a developer on my personal circles who also is one.

maybe im an exeception

edit: I guess 400M global users being the US 300M citizens isn't out of scope for such a highly used product amongst a 7B population

But social media like instagram or fb feels like had network effects going for them making their growth faster

and thus maybe why openai is exploring that idea idk

replies(1): >>43720177 #
8. umeshunni ◴[17 Apr 25 17:49 UTC] No.43720095[source]▶
Yeah, I'm old enough to remember all the masses who mocked the Internet and smartphones too.
replies(1): >>43720167 #
9. tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:50 UTC] No.43720117[source]▶
I see ChatGPT as the new Google, not the new Nuclear Power Soruce. maybe im naive
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10. tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:51 UTC] No.43720139[source]▶
I can see how students would be first users of this kinda of tech but am not on those spheres, but I believe you.

As per spammy applications, hasn't always been this the case and now made worse due to the cheapness of -generating- plausible data?

I think ghost-applicants where existent already before AI where consultant companies would pool people to try and get a position on a high paying job and just do consultancy/outsourcing things underneath, many such cases before the advent of AI.

AI just accelerates no?

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11. tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:53 UTC] No.43720167{3}[source]▶
Im not mocking AI, and while the internet and smartphones fundamentally changed how societies operate, and AI will probably do so to, why the Doomerism? Isn't that how tech works? We invent new tech and use it and so on?

What makes AI fundamentally different than smartphones or the internet? Will it change the world? Probably, already has.

Will it end it as we know it? Probably not?

replies(1): >>43720532 #
12. kadushka ◴[17 Apr 25 17:55 UTC] No.43720177{3}[source]▶
Pretty much everyone in high school or college is using them. Also everyone whose job is to produce some kind of content or data analysis. That's already a lot of people.
13. acdha ◴[17 Apr 25 18:00 UTC] No.43720235{3}[source]▶
Yes, AI is effectively a very strong catalyst because it drives down the cost so much. Kids cheated before but it was more work and higher risk, people faked images before but most were too lazy to make high quality fakes, etc.
14. ◴[17 Apr 25 18:31 UTC] No.43720532{4}[source]▶
15. azinman2 ◴[17 Apr 25 18:41 UTC] No.43720629{3}[source]▶
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DIep4wLvvVa/

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DE0lldzTHyw/

These maybe satire but I feel like they capture what’s happening. It’s more than Google.