AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.

I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.

maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates

idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles

still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

I really disagree. I had a masseuse tell me how he uses ChatGPT, told it a ton of info about himself, and now he uses it for personalized nutrition recommendations. I was in Atlanta over the weekend recently, at a random brunch spot, and overheard some _very_ not SV/tech folks talk about how they use it everyday. Their user growth rate shows this -- you don't hit hundreds of millions of people and have them all be HN/SV info-bubble folks.

I see ChatGPT as the new Google, not the new Nuclear Power Soruce. maybe im naive