←back to thread

AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

(www.dwarkesh.com)
174 points Philpax | 3 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0.682s | source
Show context
dicroce ◴[17 Apr 25 17:35 UTC] No.43719918[source]▶
Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.
replies(3): >>43719953 #>>43722914 #>>43747545 #
EA-3167 ◴[17 Apr 25 17:37 UTC] No.43719953[source]▶
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
replies(4): >>43719975 #>>43720000 #>>43720090 #>>43720159 #
tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:39 UTC] No.43719975[source]▶
maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates

idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles

still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

replies(4): >>43719999 #>>43720015 #>>43720048 #>>43720071 #
1. acdha ◴[17 Apr 25 17:46 UTC] No.43720048[source]▶
That doesn’t match what I hear from teachers, academics, or the librarians complaining that they are regularly getting requests for things which don’t exist. Everyone I know who’s been hiring has mentioned spammy applications with telltale LLM droppings, too.
replies(1): >>43720139 #
2. tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:51 UTC] No.43720139[source]▶
I can see how students would be first users of this kinda of tech but am not on those spheres, but I believe you.

As per spammy applications, hasn't always been this the case and now made worse due to the cheapness of -generating- plausible data?

I think ghost-applicants where existent already before AI where consultant companies would pool people to try and get a position on a high paying job and just do consultancy/outsourcing things underneath, many such cases before the advent of AI.

AI just accelerates no?

replies(1): >>43720235 #
3. acdha ◴[17 Apr 25 18:00 UTC] No.43720235[source]▶
Yes, AI is effectively a very strong catalyst because it drives down the cost so much. Kids cheated before but it was more work and higher risk, people faked images before but most were too lazy to make high quality fakes, etc.