AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

> idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles

> still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

Rather: outside of the HN and SV bubbles, the A"I"s and the fact how one can fall for this kind of hype and dupery is commonly ridiculed.

This is accurate, doubly so for the people who treat it like a religion and fear the coming of their machine god. This, when what we actually have are (admittedly sometimes impressive) next-token predictors that you MUST double-check because they routinely hallucinate.

Then again I remember when people here were convinced that crypto was going to change the world, democratize money, end fiat currency, and that was just the start! Programs of enormous complexity and freedom would run on the blockchain, games and hell even societies would be built on the chain.

A lot of people here are easily blinded by promises of big money coming their way, and there's money in loudly falling for successive hype storms.

Yeah, I'm old enough to remember all the masses who mocked the Internet and smartphones too.

Im not mocking AI, and while the internet and smartphones fundamentally changed how societies operate, and AI will probably do so to, why the Doomerism? Isn't that how tech works? We invent new tech and use it and so on?

What makes AI fundamentally different than smartphones or the internet? Will it change the world? Probably, already has.

Will it end it as we know it? Probably not?