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AGI Is Still 30 Years Away – Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu

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174 points Philpax | 3 comments | 17 Apr 25 16:42 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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dicroce ◴[17 Apr 25 17:35 UTC] No.43719918[source]▶
Doesn't even matter. The capabilities of the AI that's out NOW will take a decade or more to digest.
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EA-3167 ◴[17 Apr 25 17:37 UTC] No.43719953[source]▶
I feel like it's already been pretty well digested and excreted for the most part, now we're into the re-ingestion phase until the bubble bursts.
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tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:39 UTC] No.43719975[source]▶
maybe silicon valley and the world move at basically different rates

idk AI is just a speck outside of the HN and SV info-bubbles

still early to mass adoption like the smartphone or the internet, mostly nerds playing w it

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1. kadushka ◴[17 Apr 25 17:42 UTC] No.43719999{3}[source]▶
ChatGPT has 400M weekly users. https://backlinko.com/chatgpt-stats
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2. tough ◴[17 Apr 25 17:48 UTC] No.43720085[source]▶
have you wondered how many of these are bots leveraging free chatgpt with proxied vpn IPs?

I'm a ChatGPT paying user but I know no one who's not a developer on my personal circles who also is one.

maybe im an exeception

edit: I guess 400M global users being the US 300M citizens isn't out of scope for such a highly used product amongst a 7B population

But social media like instagram or fb feels like had network effects going for them making their growth faster

and thus maybe why openai is exploring that idea idk

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3. kadushka ◴[17 Apr 25 17:55 UTC] No.43720177[source]▶
Pretty much everyone in high school or college is using them. Also everyone whose job is to produce some kind of content or data analysis. That's already a lot of people.