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520 points kevinyew | 76 comments | | HN request time: 0.002s | source | bottom
1. thor-rodrigues ◴[] No.45129033[source]
I’m not sure whether I find it more worrisome or fascinating that we live in a world where a company that, as far as I know, has never generated a single dollar in revenue has managed to exist for over five years, employ more than 100 people, and still get acquired for this amount.

This isn’t criticism or sarcasm — I’m genuinely impressed, but also very curious about the rationale behind it.

replies(8): >>45129122 #>>45129136 #>>45129191 #>>45129368 #>>45129806 #>>45129941 #>>45130950 #>>45135807 #
2. rvz ◴[] No.45129122[source]
VCs are not allowed to lose.
replies(1): >>45129195 #
3. porridgeraisin ◴[] No.45129136[source]
Atlassian essentially got a big fairly locked-in userbase that they will now squeeze using their existing proven mechanisms. Oh and they probably got a few free competent developers without needing to go through an expensive hiring process.

All told, probably worth 610M.

replies(2): >>45129271 #>>45129494 #
4. colelyman ◴[] No.45129191[source]
Agreed, to make it even more interesting Browser Company discontinued Arc earlier this year. So not only did they do all of the things OP listed, but also didn't have a current product when acquired.
replies(5): >>45129257 #>>45130146 #>>45130571 #>>45130830 #>>45131560 #
5. BoorishBears ◴[] No.45129195[source]
Atlassian invested in their series A. Atlassian decided Atlassian isn't allowed to lose
6. emoII ◴[] No.45129257[source]
Where can I read about this? It still gets regular updates and is front and center on the browser company website
replies(2): >>45129292 #>>45129300 #
7. mritchie712 ◴[] No.45129271[source]
are they locked-in tho? People loved Arc, but they killed it. Doesn't seem the reviews of Dia are all that great.
replies(2): >>45129316 #>>45130808 #
8. sphars ◴[] No.45129292{3}[source]
This was their blog post back in May

https://browsercompany.substack.com/p/letter-to-arc-members-...

replies(1): >>45130637 #
9. hashbig ◴[] No.45129300{3}[source]
It was put on maintenance mode with minimal security updates to favour the development of their newer product Dia (AI browser).
replies(1): >>45129400 #
10. porridgeraisin ◴[] No.45129316{3}[source]
I haven't kept track for a while, but whoever I knew that used arc, they found it hard to go back to standard browsers after getting used to its various UI affordances. Even when they pulled the "you need an account" thing most people I knew just sucked it up and created an account. I am assuming a good portion of them will submit to whatever atlassian demands.
replies(1): >>45129473 #
11. darth_avocado ◴[] No.45129368[source]
There are some businesses that are simply not viable without losing money first. SpaceX cannot generate revenue until it first employs hundreds of people for a few years (maybe a decade) where they focus on building what will eventually bring revenue. Software has those problems too.
replies(5): >>45129468 #>>45129608 #>>45129686 #>>45129903 #>>45131261 #
12. emoII ◴[] No.45129400{4}[source]
Damn, I really appreciate the decision to do this in a new product. Arc is the best browser I've ever used, and I'd hate to see AI features forced upon me. Thanks Browser Company!
replies(2): >>45129899 #>>45130156 #
13. turnsout ◴[] No.45129468[source]
I mean this with no snark: I would love to see the investor deck that explains how an AI-powered browser is going to make any multiple of $610M.
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14. youcefb ◴[] No.45129473{4}[source]
why not Zen https://zen-browser.app/ ?

I've found it just as good AND it's open source https://github.com/zen-browser/desktop

replies(1): >>45136274 #
15. gniting ◴[] No.45129494[source]
Browser users are not (by default) Atlassian ICPs so IMO there's zero lock-in. I am going to most likely change my browser very shortly because I don't see Atlassian building out Arc. TBC raised $50M, they and their investors got a good return in a short amount of time. This chapter is now closed.
16. anon191928 ◴[] No.45129608[source]
yeah and what makes them different compared to half baked fraud startups with no revenue ? most of the world would not believe that they will bring revenue in years?
replies(2): >>45130395 #>>45130420 #
17. jsk2600 ◴[] No.45129635{3}[source]
I would guess by selling personal data and ads.
18. immibis ◴[] No.45129684{3}[source]
More charitably by selling the only browser that's actually usable in a few years. The AI will be used to cancel out the effect of other people's AI.
replies(4): >>45129843 #>>45129972 #>>45130369 #>>45130431 #
19. echelon ◴[] No.45129686[source]
I can't tell you how many designers I interviewed who told me they used the Arc browser. It was at least a dozen.

I'd never heard of the damned thing before.

I don't know why, but it appears to be popular with some creative demographics.

The browser is an essential pane of glass to platformization and taxing the web. Anyone who wins a browser with significant market share has a huge opportunity to capitalize on.

Not sure if Arc is that browser, but lots of teams are trying.

Chrome is shitty on purpose because it is designed to sell ads. Other browsers can sell AI or other things to fund their development.

It's a shame we don't have a good open source browser with decent leadership anymore. I'm sure they'd be killing it. I could swear Mozilla is led by a revolving door of paid off Google plants.

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20. dkyc ◴[] No.45129806[source]
I would think of it that way:

- no company generates revenue in its first second. Even if you start a lemonade stand tomorrow, you'll have to buy some lemons first. The time-to-revenue might be very short, but it's never zero. Therefore, making no revenue for 1 day or for 10 years is not a step change, but simply a point on a curve.

- Capitalism is basically a long history of creating vehicles with increasing sophistication to bridge that gap: provide funding for ventures that have returns in the future. This is intrinsically difficult, and it's easy to waste money, but it can work immensely. This started with the Dutch inventing limited liability corporations to fund ship expeditions, and today's VC is essentially an extension of that.

- It has worked well in the past to bet on companies that don't optimize for time-to-revenue, but something else – famous examples being e.g. Amazon, Google, Meta, who all lost lots of money initially.

Hence there can be companies that make no money for quite a while. And it can even turn out that the vast majority of the companies that make no money for a while never make any money. Accepting this risk is a feature, not a bug.

replies(1): >>45130542 #
21. turnsout ◴[] No.45129843{4}[source]
Ha, that's a dark timeline! But sadly quite probable.
22. jtbayly ◴[] No.45129899{5}[source]
I mean, I guess that’s one way of looking at it. On the other hand, they did abandon the product, so you’ll have to switch anyway in time.
23. ChrisMarshallNY ◴[] No.45129903[source]
I'm told that it can take ten years for a vineyard to start generating profit.
replies(2): >>45130899 #>>45131120 #
24. specialist ◴[] No.45129941[source]
Atlassian has always baffled me. In that JBoss sort of way.

Explaining why they're successful and I'm not.

replies(1): >>45130780 #
25. edu ◴[] No.45129965{3}[source]
Well, I was one of Arc users but they abandoned it in favor of a new browser with an integrated AI agent that t can work on tabs, Dia. Now I’m using it, but to be honest I use almost none of the AI features beyond some summaries for pages and YouTube videos, but I see a lot of potential there (I.e. make it check the calendar to propose a time in a newly composed email) for the less technical users.
26. Apocryphon ◴[] No.45129972{4}[source]
There’s Orion, Zen, plenty of minor browser projects that aspire to better experiences than the majors’. Brave is likely much more widespread than Arc, though that one is monetized via the previous trend (crypto). Never even heard of a lot of these:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrxhVA5NVQ4

27. ar_lan ◴[] No.45130146[source]
They have "Dia" - which is Chrome + AI chat?

https://www.diabrowser.com/

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28. hashbig ◴[] No.45130156{5}[source]
I agree. I think Arc was the biggest innovation in browser UI since Chrome.

I think you will eventually have to switch because it will lack behind given that it's not their priority anymore. Zen browser seems like viable alternative but I haven't used it enough yet to know how well polished it is.

https://zen-browser.app

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29. zenware ◴[] No.45130180{3}[source]
Perhaps they are hoping Google will pay them ~$500m/yr to be the default search engine.
30. Apocryphon ◴[] No.45130203{6}[source]
This video seems informational, and goes over a lot of other new browser projects too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrxhVA5NVQ4

31. dbbk ◴[] No.45130245{3}[source]
Chrome + AI chat is... Chrome + Gemini though
replies(1): >>45130296 #
32. ActionHank ◴[] No.45130296{4}[source]
Shhh... don't tell Atlassian.
replies(1): >>45131441 #
33. tpm ◴[] No.45130369{4}[source]
Putting the agent into your user agent.
34. numbsafari ◴[] No.45130395{3}[source]
Pedigree of the team and a believable project plan.

Often times money will be raised at certain valuation and terms, but the cash is held in escrow (effectively) until milestones are hit.

The investors will do their due diligence on the feasibility. It’s a high stakes, high return game (if you succeed). Look around you… any physical device you see is basically funded the same way.

35. darth_avocado ◴[] No.45130420{3}[source]
That’s like the point of venture capitalism and to a certain extent all entrepreneurial endeavors. You could start a T-shirt printing company (a completely viable business) and not see any revenue come in for months.
36. hinkley ◴[] No.45130431{4}[source]
There have been a few extremely popular remastered games the last few years and the internet is full of people cranky because folks are posting replies to five year old internet threads about the game.

Well what do you expect people to do when the only non slop result on page 1 is a 5 to 8 year old thread? It’s the top link. You’re still relevant whether you want to be or not. Fuckin deal.

37. darth_avocado ◴[] No.45130449{3}[source]
I use Arc for two reasons:

Tabs on the side nav and the ability to have 3 different AWS accounts open at the same time

replies(1): >>45130678 #
38. mrkramer ◴[] No.45130542[source]
>- no company generates revenue in its first second. Even if you start a lemonade stand tomorrow, you'll have to buy some lemons first. The time-to-revenue might be very short, but it's never zero. Therefore, making no revenue for 1 day or for 10 years is not a step change, but simply a point on a curve.

Yea, it's called investment. If you want to get rich overnight play lottery or start gambling.

39. jimmyshoes ◴[] No.45130594{6}[source]
Yeah, this is the unfortunate part about products kept alive in maintenance mode in a rapidly evolving space.

I guess you could argue (as TBC did) it’s actually not rapidly evolving, and that gives it staying power. But eventually someone will reach parity and eventually eclipse the original product.

Hopefully Zen does that. I’m just tired of moving the same data to the effectively the same product run by a different team for no good reason.

40. swores ◴[] No.45130637{4}[source]
Ironic that I wasn't familiar with this company or their products before today, and having read about both Arc and Dia, including reading this blog post you've linked, the product that makes me want to try it is the one they've stopped developing...
replies(2): >>45131158 #>>45131173 #
41. smallerize ◴[] No.45130678{4}[source]
Firefox does both of those things out of the box with no extensions.
replies(2): >>45131169 #>>45131326 #
42. emoII ◴[] No.45130707{6}[source]
Yeah my plan is definitely to move to zen in the long run, it's mostly migrating workspaces and so on that hold me back
43. NoGravitas ◴[] No.45130776{3}[source]
0.01 is a multiple!
44. ruszki ◴[] No.45130780[source]
Luck. It’s always just luck.

Of course, you need to have other ingredients too, but hundreds of millions, if not even billions of people have those skills too. Who win more among them is pure luck.

And in that, of course a ton of predetermined parameters, like where you born, who your parents are, what your skin color is, etc.

I have a friend who is worse in almost every skills which matter in our work. Not much worse, he is still awesome in his job. But I’m better. Every single person who saw us work in comparable environments would tell you the same thing. His career is still better than mine. And the single reason is that he born in wealth. He had the opportunity to live without income for years, and kick off a startup, and try to start some others, and simply try out, and risk things which I couldn’t do. Nothing else. Pure luck.

replies(1): >>45131057 #
45. andruby ◴[] No.45130808{3}[source]
I love Arc. I tried Dia. I wanted to like it but don't see how it's going to be valuable for me.

The browser features are _much_ worse than Arc (no sidebar, bookmarks are a dropdown, ...) and most of the time the AI can't even "see" or "read" what's on the page I'm viewing, so it's just worse than using Claude/ChatGPT/Gemini.

I'm still using Arc and will probably continue until there's another browser that copies its UI/UX improvements.

46. MarcelOlsz ◴[] No.45130830[source]
My experience with Arc was installing it, asking myself "I have to pay to change the app icon? wtf" and uninstalling it. Horrendous UI as well.
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47. Valodim ◴[] No.45130840{6}[source]
It is impressive what a single person with a vision can achieve hacking away on Firefox, especially considering Mozilla's track record in recent years.

A bus factor of 1 is still a bit red flag on something as involved as browser maintenance. Hopefully a community can emerge around the project.

ref: https://github.com/zen-browser/desktop/graphs/contributors

48. johnofthesea ◴[] No.45130899{3}[source]
It takes 5 years on average til you can harvest some grapes. 10 years for generating profit sounds about right.
49. trhway ◴[] No.45130950[source]
less than a $6M/head - it is a steal. Not even counting whatever IP they have.
replies(1): >>45131051 #
50. rafram ◴[] No.45131051[source]
How much do you think it costs to hire people?
replies(1): >>45131377 #
51. nickelcitymario ◴[] No.45131057{3}[source]
Luck was a necessary ingredient, 100%.

But how many other people had similar luck and did nothing with it?

Luck is another word for opportunity. Some people are really good at leveraging opportunity for all it's worth. Most of us (myself very much included) are not.

Case in point: I'm the same age as Mark Zuckerberg. Many people say his age is why he was able to be at the right place at the right time to create Facebook. Much like they say about Steve Jobs and Bill Gates and every other "self-made" billionaire.

But he still had to choose to do all the right things that I chose not to do in order to be able to experience that kind of luck.

At some point we gotta own up to our own role in guiding our lives.

replies(1): >>45131657 #
52. naravara ◴[] No.45131120{3}[source]
I know distilleries will often contract with one or more other distilleries to create a custom blended whisky to sell under their label to get some revenue while they wait for their first batches to mature. There are distilleries that basically specialize in doing this. I assume the wine market probably has similar strategies. I know 3 buck chuck basically started like this, buying overstock from other vineyards and blending them into a generic white or red wine.
replies(1): >>45131468 #
53. deinonychus ◴[] No.45131158{5}[source]
It's still worth trying and using. The developers consider it a "finished product" and I don't disagree. It does lots of small things well* that many browsers (even the self-confessed clones like Zen) don't do out of the box, if at all. Maybe in two years the browser will no longer be distributed or receive Chromium updates, but it exists and works fine now.

* For example, I get a lot of value from renaming my tabs and even replacing their favicons with emojis of my choice. Zen appears to have limited support for this.

replies(1): >>45131210 #
54. BikiniPrince ◴[] No.45131169{5}[source]
Vimperator plugin used to do the rest, but maybe that is no longer needed or working.
55. nofriend ◴[] No.45131173{5}[source]
It was popular but had no real route to profitability. Hence the acquisition.
56. swores ◴[] No.45131210{6}[source]
Thanks, I will do
57. pqtyw ◴[] No.45131261[source]
And there are business which will never be highly profitable unless the competition implodes for no particular reason (like making your own browser).
58. jrflowers ◴[] No.45131286{3}[source]
When I saw that domain my first thought was it looks like they came up with the name by combining “diabetes” with “browser”
59. pqtyw ◴[] No.45131291{3}[source]
> how many designers I interviewed who told me they used the Arc browser

Looking at their frontpage the design is outright horrible if you have a > 7-8 inch screen. I guess in a way its good to have an example of what not to do.

> I'm sure they'd be killing it

Why, though? I mean the niche is pretty small, most people don't care much about open source or even what browser they are using at all.

Considering the overwhelming majority of Mozilla's funding is coming from Google and in no way could it survive without it being run by Google's plants is not that surprising.

60. zaruvi ◴[] No.45131326{5}[source]
Yep, but admittedly the vertical tab UX is not the greatest. You either have them always be visible with an option to toggle by clicking the sidebar icon (no keyboard shortcut option afaik), or minimised as icons that expand on hover with an awfully annoying animation.

Looking at Zen, I really don't understand how Mozilla fail to capitalise on their browser, and build up a similar experimental project based on Firefox like it. It seems that many of these small QoL improvements could make a big difference. They have such a huge budget, and they waste it on inane things. Their fancy search deal with Google has made them complacent, and neglect one of the few things that ever had any real worth. Curious to see how it develops with the recent Google ruling. And to be fair, it does seem like Firefox development has picked up a bit lately—maybe even due to Zen's competition, who knows.

61. trhway ◴[] No.45131377{3}[source]
you think Mark didn't know it when he hired that guy for $250 millions? Anyway, you probably mean an individual hiring cost. Which is a totally different case from hiring and building a multifunctional team of 100. Look around at aqui-hires to understand the price, especially when we're talking about people who has been working with AI products.
replies(1): >>45132569 #
62. loloquwowndueo ◴[] No.45131441{5}[source]
Lest they attempt to buy Google instead.
replies(1): >>45138376 #
63. Nextgrid ◴[] No.45131468{4}[source]
Out of curiosity, why would a company help out their future competitor?
replies(3): >>45131551 #>>45131701 #>>45138727 #
64. chachra ◴[] No.45131492{3}[source]
same
65. mschuster91 ◴[] No.45131551{5}[source]
because they may sell the same product, yes, but not compete. there will always be someone starting a new vineyard, distillery or whatever.

it's sort of like banks vs vc funds. both lend money to companies, but still they are not competing against each other.

66. mikodin ◴[] No.45131560[source]
My hunch is a loyal user base.

Anecdotally, everyone I put onto Arc and the person who put me on still uses it.

I’ve been using Arc for the last two years and was genuinely sad on its discontinuation. I now don’t really know what I’ll do when it goes away.

replies(1): >>45131691 #
67. ◴[] No.45131657{4}[source]
68. odo1242 ◴[] No.45131680{3}[source]
Personally I liked the UI (and now use Zen browser, the UI is very much a matter of taste though), but left as the browser itself kept getting worse
replies(1): >>45131931 #
69. odo1242 ◴[] No.45131691{3}[source]
Zen browser now has all the features of Arc (including folders, which they just added) if you’re willing to use a Firefox fork
70. pavon ◴[] No.45131701{5}[source]
My impression is that a large portion of the industry is already structured as distilleries that actually make the liquor, like MGP, and a bunch of labels that put their names on it (each different). Like how many name-brand items across grocery stores are all actually made by the same company.
71. MarcelOlsz ◴[] No.45131931{4}[source]
That's very interesting. I downloaded arc because I saw it in some twitter screenshot and I thought the UI was neat, when I could have actually been looking for Zed instead of Arc.
72. rafram ◴[] No.45132569{4}[source]
$250 million was for a top researcher with more experience than almost anyone else in designing and training massive models.

As far as I know, Dia just calls OpenAI’s API. I’m sure their employees know a lot about using AI at this point, but so does everyone else who’s built an OpenAI wrapper.

73. blackqueeriroh ◴[] No.45135807[source]
This is nothing new.
74. konart ◴[] No.45136274{5}[source]
Because for better and for worse - it is Firefox.
75. ActionHank ◴[] No.45138376{6}[source]
I think I would be ok with that, they can both be a mid, bureaucratic, mess together.
76. naravara ◴[] No.45138727{5}[source]
You might be good at making whisky but not that great at marketing. Either way the market has a desire for generic, unlabeled product and people go in to fill the need.