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600 points antirez | 227 comments | | HN request time: 0.477s | source | bottom
1. dakiol ◴[] No.44625484[source]
> Gemini 2.5 PRO | Claude Opus 4

Whether it's vibe coding, agentic coding, or copy pasting from the web interface to your editor, it's still sad to see the normalization of private (i.e., paid) LLM models. I like the progress that LLMs introduce and I see them as a powerful tool, but I cannot understand how programmers (whether complete nobodies or popular figures) dont mind adding a strong dependency on a third party in order to keep programming. Programming used to be (and still is, to a large extent) an activity that can be done with open and free tools. I am afraid that in a few years, that will no longer be possible (as in most programmers will be so tied to a paid LLM, that not using them would be like not using an IDE or vim nowadays), since everyone is using private LLMs. The excuse "but you earn six figures, what' $200/month to you?" doesn't really capture the issue here.

replies(46): >>44625521 #>>44625545 #>>44625564 #>>44625827 #>>44625858 #>>44625864 #>>44625902 #>>44625949 #>>44626014 #>>44626067 #>>44626198 #>>44626312 #>>44626378 #>>44626479 #>>44626511 #>>44626543 #>>44626556 #>>44626981 #>>44627197 #>>44627415 #>>44627574 #>>44627684 #>>44627879 #>>44628044 #>>44628982 #>>44629019 #>>44629132 #>>44629916 #>>44630173 #>>44630178 #>>44630270 #>>44630351 #>>44630576 #>>44630808 #>>44630939 #>>44631290 #>>44632110 #>>44632489 #>>44632790 #>>44632809 #>>44633267 #>>44633559 #>>44633756 #>>44634841 #>>44635028 #>>44636374 #
2. azan_ ◴[] No.44625521[source]
Paid models are just much, much better.
replies(2): >>44625590 #>>44628741 #
3. belter ◴[] No.44625545[source]
The issue is somebody will have to debug and fix what those LLM Leeches made up. I guess then companies will have to hire some 10x Prompters?
4. muglug ◴[] No.44625564[source]
> Programming used to be (and still is, to a large extent) an activity that can be done with open and free tools.

Yet JetBrains has been a business longer than some of my colleagues have been alive, and Microsoft’s Visual Basic/C++/Studio made writing software for Windows much easier, and did not come cheap.

replies(2): >>44625619 #>>44626942 #
5. dakiol ◴[] No.44625590[source]
Of course they are. I wouldn't expect otherwise :)

But the price we're paying (and I don't mean money) is very high, imho. We all talk about how good engineers write code that depends on high-level abstractions instead of low-level details, allowing us to replace third party dependencies easily and test our apps more effectively, keeping the core of our domain "pure". Well, isn't it time we started doing the same with LLMs? I'm not talking about MCP, but rather an open source tool that can plug into either free and open source LLMs or private ones. That would at least allow us to switch to a free and opensource version if the companies behind the private LLMs go rogue. I'm afraid tho that wouldn't be enough, but it's a starting point.

To put an example: what would you think if you need to pay for every single Linux process in your machine? Or for every Git commit you make? Or for every debugging session you perform?

replies(6): >>44625622 #>>44625635 #>>44626079 #>>44626609 #>>44627257 #>>44633249 #
6. dakiol ◴[] No.44625619[source]
I see a big difference: I do use Jetbrains IDEs (they are nice), but I can switch to vim (or vscode) any time if I need to (e.g., let's say Jetbrains increase their price to a point that doesn't make sense, or perhaps they introduce a pervasive feature that cannot be disabled). The problem with paid LLMs is that one cannot easily switch to open-source ones (because they are not as good as the paid ones). So, it's a dependency that cannot be avoided, and that's imho something that shouldn't be overlooked.
replies(7): >>44625664 #>>44625692 #>>44625700 #>>44626197 #>>44627003 #>>44627639 #>>44630802 #
7. azan_ ◴[] No.44625622{3}[source]
> I'm not talking about MCP, but rather an open source tool that can plug into either free and open source LLMs or private ones. That would at least allow us to switch to a free and opensource version if the companies behind the private LLMs go rogue. I'm afraid tho that wouldn't be enough, but it's a starting point.

There are open source tools that do exactly that already.

replies(1): >>44625648 #
8. airstrike ◴[] No.44625635{3}[source]
None of that applies here since we could all easily switch to open models at a moment's notice with limited costs. In fact, we switch between proprietary models every few months.

It just so happens that closed models are better today.

9. dakiol ◴[] No.44625648{4}[source]
Ah, well that's nice. But every single post I read don't mention them? So, I assume they are not popular for some reason. Again, my main point here is: the normalization of using private LLMs. I don't see anyone talking about it; we are all just handing over a huge part of what it means to build software to a couple of enterprises whose goal is, of course, to maximize profit. So, yeah, perhaps I'm overthinking I don't know; I just don't like that now these companies are so ingrained in the act of building software (just like AWS is so ingrained in the act of running software)
replies(3): >>44625725 #>>44625808 #>>44627019 #
10. wepple ◴[] No.44625664{3}[source]
Anyone can switch from Claude to llama?
replies(1): >>44625713 #
11. eevmanu ◴[] No.44625692{3}[source]
Open-weight and open-source LLMs are improving as well. While there will likely always be a gap between closed, proprietary models and open models, at the current pace the capabilities of open models could match today’s closed models within months.
12. throwaway8879p ◴[] No.44625700{3}[source]
People who understand the importance of this choice but still opt for closed source software are the worst of the worst.

You won’t be able to switch to a meaningful vim if you channel your support to closed source software, not for long.

Best to put money where the mouth is.

replies(2): >>44625735 #>>44629273 #
13. dakiol ◴[] No.44625713{4}[source]
I don't think so. Let's do a silly experiment: antirez, could you ditch Gemini 2.5 PRO and Claude Opus 4, and instead use llama? Like never again go back to Gemini/Claude. I don't think he can (I don't think he would want to). I this is not on antirez, this is on everyone who's paying for LLMs at the moment: they are paying for them because they are so damn good compared to the open source ones... so there's no incentive to switch. But again, that's like the climate change: there's no incentive to pollute less (well, perhaps to save us, but money is more important).
14. rahimnathwani ◴[] No.44625725{5}[source]

  But every single post I read don't mention them?
Why would they?

Does every single post about a Jetbrains feature mention that you can easily switch from Jetbrains to an open source editor like VS Code or vim?

15. dakiol ◴[] No.44625735{4}[source]
I don't contribute to vim precisely, but I do contribute to other open source projects. So, I do like to keep this balance between making open source tools better over time and using paid alternatives. I don't think that's possible tho with LLMs at the moment (and I dont think it would be possible in the future, but ofc i could be wrong).
16. ◴[] No.44625808{5}[source]
17. bgwalter ◴[] No.44625827[source]
Yes, and what is worse is that the same mega-corporations who have been ostensibly promoting equity until 2025 are now pushing for a gated development environment that costs the same as a monthly rent in some countries or more than a monthly salary in others.

That problem does not even include lock-in, surveillance, IP theft and all other things that come with SaaS.

18. righthand ◴[] No.44625858[source]
It’s weird that programmers will champion paying for Llm but not ad-free web search.
replies(3): >>44626168 #>>44626411 #>>44626885 #
19. glitchc ◴[] No.44625864[source]
I'm certain these are advertorials masquerading as personal opinions. These people are being paid to promote the product, either through outright cash, credits on their platform or just swag.
replies(2): >>44625884 #>>44626741 #
20. tptacek ◴[] No.44625884[source]
So, just so I have this straight, you think antirez is being paid by Google to hype Gemini.
replies(1): >>44626055 #
21. floucky ◴[] No.44625902[source]
Why do you see this as a strong dependency? The beauty of it is that you can change the model whenever you want. You can even just code yourself! This isn't some no-code stuff.
replies(1): >>44631342 #
22. jstummbillig ◴[] No.44625949[source]
> Programming used to be (and still is, to a large extent) an activity that can be done with open and free tools.

Since when? It starts with computers, the main tool and it's architecture not being free and goes from there. Major compilers used to not be free. Major IDEs used to not be free. For most things there were decent and (sometimes) superior free alternatives. The same is true for LLMs.

> The excuse "but you earn six figures, what' $200/month to you?" doesn't really capture the issue here.

That "excuse" could exactly capture the issue. It does not, because you chose to make it a weirder issue. Just as before: You will be free to either not use LLMs, or use open-source LLMs, or use paid LLMs. Just as before in the many categories that pertain to programming. It all comes at a cost, that you might be willing to pay and somebody else is free to really does not care that much about.

replies(2): >>44626058 #>>44626652 #
23. cafp12 ◴[] No.44626014[source]
IMO It's not unlike all other "dev" tools we use at all. There are tons of free and open tools that usually lag a bit behind the paid versions. People pay for jetbrains, for mac os, and even to search the web (google ads).

You have very powerful open weight models, they are not the cutting edge. Even those you can't really run locally, so you'd have to pay a 3rd party to run it.

Also the competition is awesome to see, these companies are all trying hard to get customers and build the best model and driving prices down, and giving you options. No one company has all of the power, its great to see capitalism working.

replies(1): >>44626255 #
24. Herring ◴[] No.44626055{3}[source]
A lot of people are really bad at change. See: immigration. Short of giving everyone jazz improv lessons at school, there's nothing to be done.

To be fair, change is not always good. We still haven't fixed fitness/obesity issues caused (partly) by the invention of the car, 150 years later. I think there's a decent chance LLMs will have the same effect on the brain.

25. randallsquared ◴[] No.44626058[source]
> Major compilers used to not be free. Major IDEs used to not be free.

There were and are a lot of non-free ones, but since the 1990s, GCC and interpreted languages and Linux and Emacs and Eclipse and a bunch of kinda-IDEs were all free, and now VS Code is one of the highest marketshare IDEs, and those are all free. Also, the most used and learned programming language is JS, which doesn't need compilers in the first place.

replies(1): >>44626155 #
26. antirez ◴[] No.44626067[source]
It’s not that bad: K2 and DeepSeek R1 are at the level of frontier models of one year ago (K2 may be even better: I have enough experience only with V3/R1). We will see more coming since LLMs are incredibly costly to train but very simple in their essence (it’s like if their fundamental mechanic is built in the physical nature of the computation itself) so the barrier to entry is large but not insurmountable.
27. ghm2180 ◴[] No.44626079{3}[source]
> I'm not talking about MCP, but rather an open source tool that can plug into either free and open source LLMs or private ones.

Has someone computed/estimated what is at cost $$$ value of utilizing these models at full tilt: several messages per minute and at least 500,000 token context windows? What we need is a wikipedia like effort to support something truly open and continually improving in its quality.

28. jstummbillig ◴[] No.44626155{3}[source]
There are free options and there continue to be non-free options. The same is true for LLMs.
replies(1): >>44626202 #
29. haiku2077 ◴[] No.44626168[source]
I pay for search and have convinced several of my collaborators to do so as well
replies(1): >>44626610 #
30. rolisz ◴[] No.44626197{3}[source]
I was a hardcore vim user 10 years ago, but now I just use PyCharm to work. I'm paid to solve problems, not to futz around with vim configs.

Can you make vim work roughly the same way? Probably you can get pretty close. But how many hours do I have to sink into the config? A lot. And suddenly the PyCharm license is cheap.

And it's exactly the same thing with LLMs. You want hand crafted beautiful code, untainted by AI? You can still do that. But I'm paid to solve problems. I can solve them faster/solve more of them? I get more money.

replies(1): >>44627028 #
31. positron26 ◴[] No.44626198[source]
If the models are getting cheaper, better, and freer even when we use paid ones, then right now is the time to develop techniques, user interfaces, and workflows that become the inspirations and foundations of a future world of small, local, and phenomenally powerful models that have online learning, that can formalize their reason, that can bake deduction into their own weights and code.
32. vorador ◴[] No.44626202{4}[source]
When's the last time you paid for a compiler?
replies(1): >>44626392 #
33. mirekrusin ◴[] No.44626255[source]
You don't pay for macOS, you pay for apple device, operating system is free.
replies(2): >>44626315 #>>44626412 #
34. kelvinjps10 ◴[] No.44626312[source]
Doesn't already happen with some people being unable to code without Google or similar?
35. cafp12 ◴[] No.44626315{3}[source]
Thanks captain missing the point
replies(1): >>44639810 #
36. ozgung ◴[] No.44626378[source]
> The excuse "but you earn six figures, what' $200/month to you?" doesn't really capture the issue here.

Just like every other subscription model, including the one in the Black Mirror episode, Common People. The value is too good to be true for the price at the beginning. But you become their prisoner in the long run, with increasing prices and degrading quality.

replies(3): >>44626418 #>>44630789 #>>44633302 #
37. jstummbillig ◴[] No.44626392{5}[source]
The original point was that there is some inherent tradition in programming being free, with a direct critique wrt LLMs, which apparently breaks that tradition.

And my point is that's simply not the case. Different products have always been not free, and continue to be not free. Recent example would be something like Unity, that is not entirely free, but has competitors, which are entirely free and open source. JetBrain is something someone else brought up.

Again: You have local LLMs and I have every expectation they will improve. What exactly are we complaining about? That people continue to build products that are not free and, gasp, other people will pay for them, as they always have?

38. positron26 ◴[] No.44626411[source]
Ad-free search doesn't by itself produce a unique product. It's just a product that doesn't have noise, noise that people with attention spans and focus don't experience at all.

Local models are not quite there yet. For now, use the evil bad tools to prepare for the good free tools when they do get there. It's a self-correcting form of technical debt that we will never have to pay down.

replies(1): >>44626593 #
39. kgwgk ◴[] No.44626412{3}[source]
You do pay for the operating system. And for future upgrades to the operating system. Revenue recognition is a complex and evolving issue.
40. lencastre ◴[] No.44626418[source]
Can you expand on your argument?
replies(6): >>44626510 #>>44626777 #>>44626945 #>>44626948 #>>44627096 #>>44627412 #
41. webappguy ◴[] No.44626479[source]
I personally can’t wait for programming to ‘die’. It has stolen a decade of my life minimum. Like veterinarians being trained to help pets ultimately finding out a huge portion of the job is killing them. I was not sufficiently informed that I’d spend a decade arguing languages, dealing with thousands of other developers with diverging opinions, legacy code, poorly if at all maintained libraries, tools, frameworks, etc if you have been in the game at least a decade please don’t @. Adios to programming as it was (happily welcoming a new DIFFERENT reality whatever that means). Nostalgia is for life, not staring at a screen 8hrs a day
replies(6): >>44626645 #>>44626674 #>>44626910 #>>44626980 #>>44627405 #>>44629305 #
42. jordanbeiber ◴[] No.44626510{3}[source]
The argument is perhaps ”enshittification”, and that becoming reliant on a specific provider or even set of providers for ”important thing” will become problematic over time.
43. jacooper ◴[] No.44626511[source]
Kimi k2 exists now.
44. kelvinjps10 ◴[] No.44626543[source]
LLMS are basically free? Yes you're rate limited but I have just started paying for them now, before I'd bounce around between the providers but still free
replies(1): >>44627681 #
45. simonw ◴[] No.44626556[source]
The models I can run locally aren't as good yet, and are way more expensive to operate.

Once it becomes economical to run a Claude 4 class model locally you'll see a lot more people doing that.

The closest you can get right now might be Kimi K2 on a pair of 512GB Mac Studios, at a cost of about $20,000.

replies(12): >>44627184 #>>44627617 #>>44627695 #>>44627852 #>>44628143 #>>44631034 #>>44631098 #>>44631352 #>>44631995 #>>44632684 #>>44633226 #>>44644288 #
46. righthand ◴[] No.44626593{3}[source]
“To prepare for the good free tools”

Why do I have to prepare? Once the good free tools are available, it should just work no?

replies(1): >>44630856 #
47. simonw ◴[] No.44626609{3}[source]
> I'm not talking about MCP, but rather an open source tool that can plug into either free and open source LLMs or private ones.

I have been building that for a couple of years now: https://llm.datasette.io

48. righthand ◴[] No.44626610{3}[source]
I think the dev population mostly uses free search, just based on the fact no one has told me to “Kagi it” yet.
replies(1): >>44626699 #
49. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44626645[source]
Feel free to change careers and get lost, no one is forcing you to be a programmer.

If you feel it is stealing your life, then please feel free to reclaim your life at any time.

Leave the programming to those of us who actually want to do it. We don't want you to be a part of it either

replies(1): >>44628200 #
50. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44626652[source]
> Major compilers used to not be free

There's never been anything stopping you from building your own

Soon there will be. The knowledge of how to do so will be locked behind LLMs, and other sources of knowledge will be rarer and harder to find as a result of everything switching to LLM use

replies(1): >>44626874 #
51. lbrito ◴[] No.44626674[source]
Maybe it's just not for you.

I've been programming professionally since 2012 and still love it. To me the sweet spot must've been the early mid 2000s, with good enough search engines and ample documentation online.

52. haiku2077 ◴[] No.44626699{4}[source]
When I need a facial tissue I ask for a Kleenex even if the box says Puffs. Because who says "pass me the Puffs"?
replies(2): >>44627578 #>>44628839 #
53. simonw ◴[] No.44626741[source]
I recommend readjusting your advertorial-detecting radar. antirez isn't taking kickbacks from anyone.

I added a "disclosures" section to my own site recently, in case you're interested: https://simonwillison.net/about/#disclosures

replies(1): >>44627450 #
54. x______________ ◴[] No.44626777{3}[source]
Not op but a something from a few days ago that might be interesting for you:

  259. Anthropic tightens usage limits for Claude Code without telling users (techcrunch.com)
 395 points by mfiguiere 2 days ago | hide | 249 comments
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44598254
55. jstummbillig ◴[] No.44626874{3}[source]
For the past decades knowledge was "locked" behind search engines. Could you have rolled your own search engine indexing the web, to unlock that knowledge? Yes, in the same theoretical way that you can roll your own LLM.
replies(1): >>44626906 #
56. conradkay ◴[] No.44626885[source]
They have adblock
57. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44626906{4}[source]
There was never anything stopping you from finding other avenues than Search Engines to get people to find your website. You could find a url on a board at a cafe and still find a website without a search engine. More local sure, but knowledge had ways to spread in the real world when it needed to

How are LLMs equivalent? People posting their prompts on bulletin boards at cafes?

replies(1): >>44627121 #
58. llbbdd ◴[] No.44626910[source]
You got some arguably rude replies to this but you're right. I've been doing this a long time and the stuff you listed is never the fun part despite some insistence on HN that it somehow is. I love programming as a platonic ideal but those moments are fleeting between the crap you described and I can't wait for it to go.
replies(1): >>44627071 #
59. ta12653421 ◴[] No.44626942[source]
Ah, there are community editions of the most imiportant tools (since 10+ years), and i doubt e.g. MS will close VS.NET Community Version in the future.
60. nico ◴[] No.44626945{3}[source]
Currently in the front page of HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44622953

It isn’t specific to software/subscriptions but there are plenty of examples of quality degradation in the comments

61. signa11 ◴[] No.44626948{3}[source]
enshittification/vendor-lockin/stickiness/… take your pick
62. hsuduebc2 ◴[] No.44626980[source]
Did you expect computer programming not to involve this much time at a computer screen? Most modern jobs especially in tech do. If it’s no longer fulfilling, it might be worth exploring a different role or field instead of waiting for the entire profession to change.

I understand your frustration but the problem is mostly people. Not the particular skill itself.

63. Fervicus ◴[] No.44626981[source]
> I cannot understand how programmers don't mind adding a strong dependency on a third party in order to keep programming

And how they don't mind freely opening up their codebase to these bigtech companies.

replies(2): >>44627737 #>>44627744 #
64. layer8 ◴[] No.44627003{3}[source]
> because they are not as good as the paid ones

The alternative is to restrict yourself to “not as good” ones already now.

65. Arainach ◴[] No.44627019{5}[source]
>every single post I read don't mention them

Because the models are so much worse that people aren't using them.

Philosophical battles don't pay the bills and for most of us they aren't fun.

There have been periods of my life where I stubbornly persisted using something inferior for various reasons - maybe I was passionate about it, maybe I wanted it to exist and was willing to spend my time debugging and offer feedback - but there a finite number of hours in my life and often I'd much rather pay for something that works well than throw my heart, soul, time, and blood pressure at something that will only give me pain.

66. skydhash ◴[] No.44627028{4}[source]
> I was a hardcore vim user 10 years ago, but now I just use PyCharm to work. I'm paid to solve problems, not to futz around with vim configs.

The reason I don't like those arguments is that they merge two orthogonal stuff: Solving problems and optimizing your tooling. You can optimize PyCharm just as much you can fiddle with Vim's config. And people are solving with problems with Vim just as you do with an IDE. It's just a matter of preference.

In my day job, I have two IDEs, VSCode, and Emacs open. I prefer Emacs to edit and git usage, but there's a few things that only the IDEs can do (as in I don't bother setting emacs to do the same), and VSCode is there because people get dizzy with the way I switch buffers in Emacs.

replies(3): >>44627640 #>>44628154 #>>44631962 #
67. ◴[] No.44627071{3}[source]
68. nicce ◴[] No.44627096{3}[source]
There is a reason why companies throw billions into AI and still are not profitable. They must be the first ones to hook the users in the long run and make service necessary part of user’s life. And then increase the price.
replies(1): >>44628048 #
69. retsibsi ◴[] No.44627121{5}[source]
But what is (or will be) stopping you from finding avenues other than LLMs? You say other sources of knowledge will be rarer. But they will still exist, and I don't see why they will become less accessible than non-search-engine-indexed content is now.
70. ◴[] No.44627184[source]
71. fragmede ◴[] No.44627197[source]
> Programming used to be (and still is, to a large extent) an activity that can be done with open and free tools.

Not without a lot of hard thankless work by people like RMS to write said tools. Programming for a long while was the purview of Microsoft Visual Studio family, which cost hundreds, if not thousands of dollars. There existed other options, some of which was free, but, as is the case today with LLMs you can run at home, they were often worse.

This is why making software developer tools is such a tough market and why debugging remains basically in the dark ages (though there are the occasional bright lights like rr). Good quality tools are expensive, for doctors and mechanics, why do we as software developers expect ours to be free, libre and gratis?

replies(1): >>44631234 #
72. vunderba ◴[] No.44627257{3}[source]
> an open source tool that can plug into either free and open source LLMs or private ones

Fortunately there are many of these that can integrate with offline LLMs through systems like LiteLLM/Ollama/etc. Off the top of my head, I'd look into Continue, Cline and Aider.

https://github.com/continuedev/continue

https://github.com/cline/cline

https://github.com/Aider-AI/aider

73. vunderba ◴[] No.44627405[source]
> It has stolen a decade of my life minimum.

Feels like this is a byproduct of a poor work-life balance more than an intrinsic issue with programming itself. I also can't really relate since I've always enjoyed discussing challenging problems with colleagues.

I'm assuming by "die" you mean some future where autonomous agentic models handle all the work. In this world, where you can delete your entire programming staff and have a single PM who tells the models what features to implement next, where do you imagine you fit in?

I just hope for your sake that you have a fallback set of viable skills to survive in this theoretical future.

74. majormajor ◴[] No.44627412{3}[source]
I don't think it's subscriptions so much as consumer startup pricing strategies:

Netflix/Hulu were "losing money on streaming"-level cheap.

Uber was "losing money on rides"-level cheap.

WeWork was "losing money on real-estate" level cheap.

Until someone releases wildly profitable LLM company financials it's reasonable to expect prices to go up in the future.

Course, advances in compute are much more reasonable to expect than advances in cheap media production, taxi driver availability, or office space. So there's a possibility it could be different. But that might require capabilities to hit a hard plateau so that the compute can keep up. And that might make it hard to justify the valuations some of these companies have... which could also lead to price hikes.

But I'm not as worried as others. None of these have lock-in. If the prices go up, I'm happy to cancel or stop using it.

For a current student or new grad who has only ever used the LLM tools, this could be a rougher transition...

Another thing that would change the calculation is if it becomes impossible to maintain large production-level systems competitively without these tools. That's presumably one of the things the companies are betting on. We'll see if they get there. At that point many of us probably have far bigger things to worry about.

replies(2): >>44628124 #>>44628540 #
75. TacticalCoder ◴[] No.44627415[source]
I rely on these but there's zero loyalty. The moment something better is there, like when Gemini 2.5 Pro showed up, I immediately switch.

That's why I drink the whole tools kool-aid. From TFA:

> In this historical moment, LLMs are good amplifiers and bad one-man-band workers.

That's how I use them: write a function here, explain an error message there. I'm still in control.

I don't depend on LLMs: they just amplify.

I can pull the plug immediately and I'm still able to code, as I was two years ago.

Shall DeepSeek release a free SOTA model? I'll then use that model locally.

It's not because I use LLMs that I have a strong dependency on them.

Just like I was already using JetBrains' IntelliJ IDEA back when many here were still kids (and, yup, it was lightyears better than NetBeans and Eclipse) didn't make me have a strong dependency on JetBrains tools.

I'm back to Emacs and life is good: JetBrains IDEs didn't make me forget how to code, just as LLMs won't.

They're just throwaway tools and are to be regarded as such.

76. amirhirsch ◴[] No.44627450{3}[source]
It started out as an innocent kv cache before the redis industrial complex became 5% of the GDP
77. throw-number9 ◴[] No.44627574[source]
> Programming used to be (and still is, to a large extent) an activity that can be done with open and free tools. I am afraid that in a few years, that will no longer be possible .. The excuse "but you earn six figures, what' $200/month to you?" doesn't really capture the issue here.

Yeah, coding (and to a lesser extent IT in general) at one point was a real meritocracy, where skill mattered more than expensive/unnecessary academic pedigree. Not perfect of course, but real nevertheless. And coders were the first engineers who really said "I won't be renting a suit for an interview, I think an old t-shirt is fine" and we normalized that. Part of this was just uncompromisingly practical.. like you can either do the work or not, and fuck the rest of that noise. But there was also a pretty punk aspect to this for many people in the industry.. some recognition that needing to have money to make money was a bullshit relic of closeted classism.

But we're fast approaching a time where both the old metrics (how much quality code are you writing how fast and what's your personal open source portfolio like?) and the new metrics (are you writing a blog post every week about your experience with the new models, is your personal computer fast enough to even try to run crappy local models?) are both going to favor those with plenty of money to experiment.

It's not hard to see how this will make inequality worse and disadvantage junior devs, or just talented people that didn't plan other life-events around purchasing API credits/GPUs. A pay-to-play kind of world was ugly enough in politics and business so it sucks a lot to see it creeping into engineering disciplines but it seems inevitable. If paying for tokens/GPU ever allows you to purchase work or promotion by proxy, we're right back to this type of thing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchase_of_commissions_in_the...

78. martsa1 ◴[] No.44627578{5}[source]
I've been curious of that phenomenon, why not juat ask "pass me a tissue?"
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79. QRY ◴[] No.44627617[source]
Have you considered the Framework Desktop setup they mentioned in their announcement blog post[0]? Just marketing fluff, or is there any merit to it?

> The top-end Ryzen AI Max+ 395 configuration with 128GB of memory starts at just $1999 USD. This is excellent for gaming, but it is a truly wild value proposition for AI workloads. Local AI inference has been heavily restricted to date by the limited memory capacity and high prices of consumer and workstation graphics cards. With Framework Desktop, you can run giant, capable models like Llama 3.3 70B Q6 at real-time conversational speed right on your desk. With USB4 and 5Gbit Ethernet networking, you can connect multiple systems or Mainboards to run even larger models like the full DeepSeek R1 671B.

I'm futsing around with setups, but adding up the specs would give 384GB of VRAM and 512GB total memory, at a cost of about $10,000-$12,000. This is all highly dubious napkin math, and I hope to see more experimentation in this space.

There's of course the moving target of cloud costs and performance, so analysing break-even time is even more precarious. So if this sort of setup would work, its cost-effectiveness is a mystery to me.

[0] https://frame.work/be/en/blog/introducing-the-framework-desk...

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80. jacobr1 ◴[] No.44627639{3}[source]
Seems the same to me. If you are using the llm as a tool to build your product (rather than a dependency within it for functionality) you can easily switch to a different model, or IDE/Agentic-coder in the same way you can switch between vim and emacs. It might be a `worse` experience for you or have fewer feature, but you aren't locked in, other than in the sense of your preference for productivity. In fact in seems likely to mee that the tools I'll be using a year from now are going to be different than today - and almost certainly a different model will be leading. For example google surprised everyone with the quality of 2.5.
81. LeafItAlone ◴[] No.44627640{5}[source]
>The reason I don't like those arguments is that they merge two orthogonal stuff: Solving problems and optimizing your tooling. You can optimize PyCharm just as much you can fiddle with Vim's config.

But you’re ignoring that the “optimizing tooling” is for the goal of making it easier for you. Its spending time now to decrease time spent in the long term.

I spent over a decade with Emacs as my sole editor and have since spent over a decade with PyCharm. Day 1 of PyCharm already had practically everything that it took a decade to get working for Emacs, and more. It was pre-optimized for me, so I was able to spend more time working on my code. Did I need to spend time optimizing Emacs? No. But doing so added intellisense and the ability to jump around the codebase very quickly. You _can_ spend just as much time optimizing Emacs, but I didn’t _have_ to in order to get the same result. Or have I spent that much time optimizing it since, for even more functionality.

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82. jacobr1 ◴[] No.44627681[source]
The most cutting edge-models aren't usually free, at least at first.
replies(1): >>44629030 #
83. LeafItAlone ◴[] No.44627684[source]
>I am afraid that in a few years, that will no longer be possible (as in most programmers will be so tied to a paid LLM

As of now, I’m seeing no lock-in for any LLM. With tools like Aider, Cursor, etc., you can swim on a whim. And with Aider, I do.

That’s what I currently don’t get in terms of investment. Companies (in many instances, VCs) are spending billions of dollars and tomorrow someone else eats their lunch. They are going to need to determine that method of lock-in at some point, but I don’t see it happening with the way I use the tools.

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84. zer00eyz ◴[] No.44627695[source]
> Once it becomes economical to run a Claude 4 class model locally you'll see a lot more people doing that.

Historically these sorts of things happened because of Moores law. Moores law is dead. For a while we have scaled on the back of "more cores", and process shrink. It looks like we hit the wall again.

We seem to be near the limit of scaling (physics) we're not seeing a lot in clock (some but not enough), and IPC is flat. We are also having power (density) and cooling (air wont cut it any more) issues.

The requirements to run something like claud 4 local aren't going to make it to house hold consumers any time soon. Simply put the very top end of consumer PC's looks like 10 year old server hardware, and very few people are running that because there isn't a need.

The only way we're going to see better models locally is if there is work (research, engineering) put into it. To be blunt that isnt really happening, because Fb/MS/Google are scaling in the only way they know how. Throw money at it to capture and dominate the market, lock out the innovators from your API and then milk the consumer however you can. Smaller, and local is antithetical to this business model.

Hoping for the innovation that gives you a moat, that makes you the next IBM isnt the best way to run a business.

Based on how often Google cancels projects, based on how often the things Zuck swear are "next" face plant (metaverse) one should not have a lot of hope about AI>

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85. LeafItAlone ◴[] No.44627737[source]
You mean the same companies they are hosting their VCS in and providing the infrastructure they deploy their codebases to? All in support of their CRUD application that is in a space with 15 identical competitors? My codebase is not my secret sauce.
replies(1): >>44627990 #
86. geoka9 ◴[] No.44627744[source]
> > I cannot understand how programmers don't mind adding a strong dependency on a third party in order to keep programming > > And how they don't mind freely opening up their codebase to these bigtech companies.

And how they don't mind opening up their development machines to agents driven by a black-box program that is run in the cloud by a vendor that itself doesn't completely understand how it works.

87. jerrygenser ◴[] No.44627759[source]
They can lock in by subsidizing the price of you use their tool, while making the default price larger for wrappers. This can draw people from the wrapper that can support multiple models to the specific CLI that supports the proprietary model.
replies(2): >>44630416 #>>44633925 #
88. skydhash ◴[] No.44627773{6}[source]
Emacs is not a python oriented IDE. So the comparison is moot from the beginning. Some people likes what Emacs offers and mesh it with external tools. Some prefers a more complete package. Nothing wrong with either, especially if you have the time and the knowledge to iterate quicly on the first.

What you may need is something others can do without. So what’s best is always subjective.

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89. cheeze ◴[] No.44627826{3}[source]
I love Framework but it's still not enough IMO. My time is the most valuable thing, and a subscription to $paid_llm_of_choice is _cheap_ relative to my time spent working.

In my experience, something Llama 3.3 works really well for smaller tasks. For "I'm lazy and want to provide minimal prompting for you to build a tool similar to what is in this software package already", paid LLMs are king.

If anything, I think the best approach for free LLMs would be to run using rented GPU capacity. I feel bad knowing that I have a 4070ti super that sits idle for 95% of the time. I'd rather share an a1000 with bunch of folks and have that run at close to max utilization.

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90. esafak ◴[] No.44627840{3}[source]
Model efficiency is outpacing Moore's law. That's what DeepSeek V3 was about. It's just we're simultaneously finding ways to use increase model capacity, and that's growing even faster...
replies(1): >>44628211 #
91. smallerize ◴[] No.44627852[source]
I don't have to actually run it locally to remove lock-in. Several cloud providers offer full DeepSeek R1 or Kimi K2 for $2-3/million output tokens.
replies(1): >>44629572 #
92. rapind ◴[] No.44627879[source]
Not an issue and I'll tell you why.

If the gains plateau, then there's really no need to make productivity sacrifices here for the societal good, because there's so much competition, and various levels of open models that aren't far behind, that there will be no reason to stick with a hostile and expensive service unless it's tooling stays leaps ahead of the competition.

If the gains don't plateau, well then we're obsolete anyways, and will need to pivot to... something?

So I sympathize, but pragmatically I don't think there's much point in stressing it. I also suspect the plateau is coming and that the stock of these big players is massively overvalued.

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93. Fervicus ◴[] No.44627990{3}[source]
Sure, the codebase itself isn't special. But it's the principle and ethics of it all. These companies trained their models unethically without consequence, and now people are eating up their artificially inflated hype and are lining up to give them money and their data on a silver platter.
replies(1): >>44633886 #
94. mleo ◴[] No.44628024{3}[source]
Why wouldn’t 3rd party hardware vendors continue to work on reducing costs of running models locally? If there is a market opportunity for someone to make money, it will be filled. Just because the cloud vendors don’t develop hardware someone will. Apple has vested interest in making hardware to run better models locally, for example.
replies(1): >>44629088 #
95. 20k ◴[] No.44628044[source]
+1, I use exclusively free tools for this exact reason. I've been using the same tools for 15 years now (GCC + IDE), and they work great

There is a 0% chance that I'm going to subscribe to being able to program, because its actively a terrible idea. You have to be very naïve to think that any of these companies are still going to be around and supporting your tools in 10-20 years time, so if you get proficient with them you're absolutely screwed

I've seen people say that AI agents are great because instead of using git directly, they can ask their AI agent to do it. Which would be fine if it was a free tool, but you're subscribing to the ability to even start and maintain projects

A lot of people are about to learn an extremely blunt lesson about capitalism

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96. mleo ◴[] No.44628048{4}[source]
Or expect price to deliver the service becomes cheaper. Or both.
97. bee_rider ◴[] No.44628124{4}[source]
It isn’t even that unreasonable for the AI companies to not be profitable at the moment (they are probably betting they can decrease costs before they run out of money, and want to offer people something like what the final experience will be). But it’s totally bizarre that people are comparing the cost of running locally to the current investor-subsidized remote costs.

Eventually, these things should get closer. Eventually the hosted solutions have to make money. Then we’ll see if the costs of securing everything and paying some tech company CEO’s wage are higher than the benefits of centrally locating the inference machines. I expect local running will win, but the future is a mystery.

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98. oblio ◴[] No.44628143[source]
The thing is, code is quite compact. Why do LLMs need to train on content bigger than the size of the textual internet to be effective?

Total newb here.

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99. freedomben ◴[] No.44628154{5}[source]
Indeed. I've been a vim user for almost two decades, and it's been a long, long time since I"ve had to spend time solving problems/optimizing my tooling. Yes it was a big up front investment, but it's paid off immensely. I don't think I'm anything special so please don't misunderstand this as a brag, but I routinely have people enjoy "watching" me use vim because I can fly around the codebase with lightning speed, often times I can have already followed code paths through several files before VS code is even loaded and ready to work on my coworkers machine. The only problem is for whatever reason if I know somebody is watching, I sometimes get stage fright and forget how to use vim for a few seconds at at time :-D
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100. generic92034 ◴[] No.44628162{4}[source]
> and a subscription to $paid_llm_of_choice is _cheap_ relative to my time spent working.

In the mid to long term the question is, is the subscription covering the costs of the LLM provider. Current costs might not be stable for long.

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101. oblio ◴[] No.44628200{3}[source]
Don't be rude.
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102. zer00eyz ◴[] No.44628211{4}[source]
> Model efficiency is outpacing Moore's law.

Moores law is dead, has been for along time. There is nothing to outpace.

> That's what DeepSeek V3 was about.

This would be a foundational shift! What problem in complexity theory was solved that the rest of computing missed out on?

Don't get me wrong MOE is very interesting but breaking up one large model into independent chunks isn't a foundational breakthrough its basic architecture. It's 1960's time sharing on unix basics. It's decomposition of your application basics.

All that having been said, there is a ton of room for these sorts of basic, blood and guts engineering ideas to make systems more "portable" and "usable". But a shift in thinking to small, targeted and focused will have to happen. Thats antithetical to everything in one basket throw more compute at it and magically we will get to AGI. That clearly isnt the direction the industry is going... it wont give any one a moat, or market dominance.

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103. haiku2077 ◴[] No.44628257{6}[source]
Cuz all the adults around me called it a Kleenex when I was growing up and I've internalized the word for that kind of tissue is Kleenex
104. airspresso ◴[] No.44628343{3}[source]
Many reasons, one being that LLMs are essentially compressing the training data to unbelievably small data volumes (the weights). When doing so, they can only afford to keep the general principles and semantic meaning of the training data. Bigger models can memorize more than smaller ones of course, but are still heavily storage limited. Through this process they become really good at semantic understanding of code and language in general. It takes a certain scale of training data to achieve that.
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105. lhl ◴[] No.44628517{3}[source]
Strix Halo does not run a 70B Q6 dense model at real-time conversational speed - it has a real-world MBW of about 210 GB/s. A 40GB Q4 will clock just over 5 tok/s. A Q6 would be slower.

It will run some big MoEs at a decent speed (eg, Llama 4 Scout 109B-A17B Q4 at almost 20 tok/s). The other issue is its prefill - only about 200 tok/s due to having only very under-optimized RDNA3 GEMMs. From my testing, you usually have to trade off pp for tg.

If you are willing to spend $10K for hardware, I'd say you are much better off w/ EPYC and 12-24 channels of DDR5, and a couple fast GPUS for shared experts and TFLOPS. But, unless you are doing all-night batch processing, that $10K is probably better spent on paying per token or even renting GPUs (especially when you take into account power).

Of course, there may be other reasons you'd want to inference locally (privacy, etc).

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106. klabb3 ◴[] No.44628540{4}[source]
> But I'm not as worried as others. None of these have lock-in.

They will. And when they do it will hit hard, especially if you’re not just a consumer but relying on it for work.

One vector is personalization. Your LLM gets to know you and your history. They will not release that to a different company.

Another is integrations. Perhaps you’re using LLMs for assistance, but only Gemini has access to your calendar.

Cloud used to be ”rent a server”. You could do it anywhere, but AWS was good & cheap. Now how is is it to migrate? Can you even afford the egress? How easy is it to combine offerings from different cloud providers?

107. moffkalast ◴[] No.44628610{4}[source]
Yeah it's only really viable for chat use cases, coding is the most demanding in terms of generation speed, to keep the workflow usable it needs to spit out corrections in seconds, not minutes.

I use local LLMs as much as possible myself, but coding is the only use case where I still entirely defer to Claude, GPT, etc. because you need both max speed and bleeding edge model intelligence for anything close to acceptable results. When Qwen-3-Coder lands + having it on runpod might be a low end viable alternative, but likely still a major waste of time when you actually need to get something done properly.

108. moron4hire ◴[] No.44628648{5}[source]
I agree with you that Moore's Law being dead means we can't expect much more from current, silicon-based GPU compute. Any improvement from hardware alone is going to have to come from completely new compute technology, of which I don't think there is anything mature enough to expect any results in the next 10 years.

Right now, hardware wise, we need more RAM in GPUs than we really need compute. But it's a breakpoint issue: you need enough RAM to hold the model. More RAM that is less than the model is not going to improve things much. More RAM that is more than the model is largely dead weight.

I don't think larger models are going to show any major inference improvements. They hit the long tail of diminishing returns re: model training vs quality of output at least 2 years ago.

I think the best anyone can hope for in optimizing current LLM technology is improve the performance of inference engines, and there at most I can imagine only about a 5x improvement. That would be a really long tail of performance optimizations that would take at least a decade to achieve. In the 1 to 2 year timeline, I think the best that could be hoped for is a 2x improvement. But I think we may have already seen much of the low hanging optimization fruit already picked, and are starting to turn the curve into that long tail of incremental improvements.

I think everyone betting on LLMs improving the performance of junior to mid level devs and that leading to a Renaissance of software development speed is wildly over optimistic as to the total contribution to productivity those developers already represent. Most of the most important features are banged out by harried, highly skilled senior developers. Most everyone else is cleaning up around the edges of that. Even a 2 or 3x improvement of the bottom 10% of contributions is only going to grow the pie just so much. And I think these tools are basically useless to skilled senior devs. All this "boilerplate" code folks keep cheering the AI is writing for them is just not that big of a deal. 15 minutes of savings once a month.

But I see how this technology works and what people are asking it to do (which in my company is basically "all the hard work that you already weren't doing, so how are you going to even instruct an LLM to do it if you don't really know how to do it?") and there is such a huge gap between the two that I think it's going to take at least a 100x improvement to get there.

I can't see AI being all that much of an improvement on productivity. It still gives wrong results too many times. The work needed to make it give good results is the same sort of work we should have been doing already to be able to leverage classical ML systems with more predictable performance and output. We're going to spend trillions as an industry trying to chase AI that will only end up being an exercise in making sure documents are stored in a coherent, searchable way. At which point, why not do just that and avoid having to pressure the energy industry to firing up a bunch of old coal plants to meet demand?

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109. moron4hire ◴[] No.44628741[source]
They are a little better. Sometimes that little bit is an activation-energy level of difference. But overall, I don't see a huge amount of difference in quality between the open and closed models. Most of the time, it just takes a little more effort to get as good of results out of the open models as the closed ones.
110. righthand ◴[] No.44628773{6}[source]
Good old American brand loyalty.
111. moron4hire ◴[] No.44628786[source]
A lot of people's problems with Git would go away if they just took a weekend and "read the docs." It's shocking how resistant most people are to the idea of studying to improve their craft.

I've been spending time with my team, just a few hours a week, on training them on foundational things, vs every other team in the company just plodding along, trying to do things the same way they always have, which already wasn't working. It's gotten to where my small team of 4 is getting called in to clean up after these much larger teams fail to deliver. I'm pretty proud of my little junior devs.

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112. __loam ◴[] No.44628816{4}[source]
He's being honest, not rude
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113. righthand ◴[] No.44628839{5}[source]
I say “tissue” and “web search” so you’re talking to the wrong guy with that. Even though growing up everyone around me has said Kleenex and Google.
114. jonas21 ◴[] No.44628982[source]
How is it a strong dependency? If Claude were to disappear tomorrow, you could just switch to Gemini. If all proprietary LLMs were to disappear tomorrow (I don't know how that would happen, but let's suppose for the sake of argument), then you switch to free LLMs, or even just go back to doing everything by hand. There's very little barrier to switching models if you have to.
115. overgard ◴[] No.44629019[source]
I think it's an unlikely future.

What I think is more likely is people will realize that every line of code written is, to an extent, a liability, and generating massive amounts of sloppy insecure poorly performing code is a massive liability.

That's not to say that AI's will go away, obviously, but I think when the hype dies down and people get more accustomed to what these things can and can't do well we'll have a more nuanced view of where these things should be applied.

I suppose what's still not obvious to me is what happens if the investment money dries up. OpenAI and Anthropic, as far as I know, aren't anywhere near profitable and they require record breaking amounts of capital to come in just to sustain what they have. If what we currently see is the limit of what LLM's and other generative techniques can do, then I can't see that capital seeing a good return on its investment. If that's the case, I wonder if when the bubble bursts these things become massively more expensive to use, or get taken out of products entirely. (I won't be sad to see all the invasive Copilot buttons disappear..)

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116. ipaddr ◴[] No.44629030{3}[source]
They are good enough for 90% of people and 90% of cases that I would trust an llm for.

What advantages are people getting on these new models?

117. oblio ◴[] No.44629047{4}[source]
Yeah, I just asked Gemini and apparently some older estimates put a relatively filtered dataset of Github source code at around 21TB in 2018, and some more recent estimates could put it in the low hundreds of TB.

Considering as you said, that LLMs are doing a form of compression, and assuming generously that you add extra compression on top, yeah, now I understand a bit more. Even if you focus on non-similar code to get the most coverage, I wouldn't be shocked if a modern, representative source code training data from Github weighed 1TB, which obviously is a lot more than consumer grade hardware can bear.

I guess we need to ramp up RAM production a bunch more :-(

Speaking of which, what's the next bottle neck except for storing the damned things? Training needs a ton of resources but that part can be pooled, even for OSS models, it "just" need to be done "once", and then the entire community can use the data set. So I guess inference is the scaling cost, what's the most used resource there? Data bandwidth for RAM?

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118. oblio ◴[] No.44629086{5}[source]
Honesty doesn't look like this:

> [...] get lost [...]

> [..] We don't want you to be a part of it either. [...]

He's being rude.

Honesty would be, something like:

> I (and probably many others) like programming a lot. Even if you're frustrated with it, I think a great deal of people will be sad if somehow programming disappeared completely. It might be best for you if you just found a job that you love more, instead.

Also the original comment makes a point that's SUPER valid and anyone working as a professional programmer for 10+ years can't really deny:

> poorly if at all maintained libraries, tools, frameworks

Most commercial code just sucks due to misaligned incentives. Open Source is better, but not always, as a lot of Open Source code is just commercial code opened up after the fact.

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119. zer00eyz ◴[] No.44629088{4}[source]
> Why wouldn’t 3rd party hardware vendors continue to work on reducing costs of running models locally?

Every one wants this to happen they are all trying but...

EUV, what has gotten us down to 3nm and less is HARD. Reduction in chip size has lead to increases in density and lower costs. But now yields are DOWN and the design concessions to make the processes work are hurting costs and performance. There are a lot of hopes and prayers in the 1.8 nodes but things look grim.

Power is a massive problem for everyone. It is a MASSIVE a problem IN the data center and it is a problem for GPU's at home. Considering that locally is a PHONE for most people it's an even bigger problem. With all this power comes cooling issues. The industry is starting to look at all sorts of interesting ways to move heat away from cores... ones that don't involve air.

Design has hit a wall as well. If you look at NVIDIA's latest offering its IPC, (thats Instructions Per Clock cycle) you will find they are flat. The only gains between the latest generation and previous have come from small frequency upticks. These gains came from using "more power!!!", and thats a problem because...

Memory is a problem. There is a reason that the chips for GPU's are soldered on to the boards next to the processors. There is a reason that laptops have them soldered on too. CAMM try's to fix some of this but the results are, to say the least, disappointing thus far.

All of this has been hitting cpu's slowly, but we have also had the luxury of "more cores" to throw at things. If you go back 10-15 years a top end server is about the same as a top end desktop today (core count, single core perf). Because of all of the above issues I don't think you are going to get 700+ core consumer desktops in a decade (current high end for server CPU)... because of power, costs etc.

Unless we see some foundational breakthrough in hardware (it could happen), you wont see the normal generational lift in performance that you have in the past (and I would argue that we already haven't been seeing that). Someone is going to have to make MAJOR investments in the software side, and there is NO MOAT by doing so. Simply put it's a bad investment... and if we can't lower the cost of compute (and it looks like we can't) its going to be hard for small players to get in and innovate.

It's likely you're seeing a very real wall.

120. paulddraper ◴[] No.44629132[source]
And you thought Visual Studio was free?

Or Windows?

Or an Apple Developer License?

There are free/free-ish, options, but there have always been paid tools.

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121. ◴[] No.44629213{6}[source]
122. muglug ◴[] No.44629273{4}[source]
Until you’ve run a big open-source project you won’t quite understand how much time and energy it can eat up. All that effort won’t feed your family.
123. midasz ◴[] No.44629305[source]
Damn dude. I'm just having fun most of the time. The field is so insanely broad that if you've got an ounce of affinity there's a corner that would fit you snugly AND you'd make a decent living. Take a look around.
124. kossae ◴[] No.44629416[source]
The point on investment is apt. Even if they achieve twice as much as they’re able to today (some doubts amongst experts here), when the VC funding dries up we’ve seen what happens. It’s time to pay the piper. The prices rise to Enterprise-plan amounts, and companies start making much more real ROI decisions on these tools past the hype bubble. Will be interesting to see how that angle plays out. I’m no denier nor booster, but in the capitalist society these things inevitably balance out.
replies(1): >>44633490 #
125. ketzo ◴[] No.44629572{3}[source]
In what ways is that better for you than using eg Claude? Aren’t you then just “locked in” to having a cloud provider which offers those models cheaply?
replies(1): >>44629709 #
126. zackify ◴[] No.44629688{3}[source]
The memory bandwidth is crap and you’ll never run anything close to Claude on that unfortunately. They should have shipped something 8x faster at least 2 tb/s bandwidth
127. smcleod ◴[] No.44629702{3}[source]
The framework desktop isn't really that compelling for work with LLMs, it's memory bandwidth is very low compared to GPUs and Apple Silicon Max/Ultra chips - you'd really notice how slow LLMs are on it to the point of frustration. Even a 2023 Macbook Pro with a M2 Max chip has twice the usable bandwidth.
128. viraptor ◴[] No.44629709{4}[source]
Any provider can run Kimi (including yourself if you would get enough use out of it), but only one can run Claude.
replies(1): >>44633739 #
129. viraptor ◴[] No.44629754{5}[source]
> What problem in complexity theory was solved

None. We're still in the "if you spend enough effort you can make things less bad" era of LLMs. It will be a while before we even find out what are the theoretical limits in that area. Everyone's still running on roughly the same architecture after all - big corps haven't even touched recursive LLMs yet!

130. theshackleford ◴[] No.44629884{6}[source]
> Honesty doesn't look like this

Sure it does. Reads incredibly honestly to me.

replies(1): >>44630763 #
131. sneak ◴[] No.44629916[source]
Strong dependency? I can still code without LLMs, just an order of magnitude slower.

There is no dependency at all.

replies(2): >>44632108 #>>44633271 #
132. ls-a ◴[] No.44630173[source]
Programming on/for Apple has never been free. So it's not a surprise to some engineers. You're right that programming might become the way of Apple in the future. However, I think engineers should rejoice because AI is the best thing that happened to them.
replies(1): >>44631337 #
133. vitaflo ◴[] No.44630178[source]
Most people who develop software expect other people to pay for it. That's why devs make six figures. Yet devs want everything for free to create the software they charge money for? That's a bit hypocritical.
134. dcre ◴[] No.44630270[source]
To be pedantic, I think it’s too late for a product with close to a billion monthly active users to be “normalized.”
135. firecall ◴[] No.44630351[source]
A big issue will be if we see a further decline in SDK and API documentation.

Anecdotally, I recently find myself building a simple enough Android app for a client based on an iOS app I have already built.

I don’t really know Android dev, but know enough to get started having patched an App somewhat recently.

So started from scratch and having heard that the Android SDK had something similar to SwiftUI that’s what I went for.

In building the App I have found that Gemini is far more useful than Googles own documentation and tutorials.

The tutorials for basic things like NavBars is just wrong in places, maybe due to being outdated.

I’ve reported issues using the feedback tool. But still….

136. aseipp ◴[] No.44630416{3}[source]
Anthropic or Google offering a product and having margins they leverage is not "lock in" when there are dozens of alternatives at many various price points, including ones that can be run entirely locally (at high capex cost). It's like market fact #0 that, today, there is very little moat here other than capital, which is why OpenAI has now got multiple viable competitors despite their head start. Their APIs get copied, their tools get copied, the only way they remain competitive is with huge investments back into the core product to retain their leads. This is just what a competitive market looks like right now, and these offerings exist exactly because of downward pressure from other forces. The goal is of course to squeeze other players as much as possible, but these products have not yet proven to be sticky enough for their mere existence to do that. And there are many other players who have a lot of incentive to keep that downward pressure applied.

What you're describing is really just called "Offering a product for sale" and yes typically the people doing it will do, say, and offer things that encourage using their product over the competitors. That isn't "lock in" in any sense of the word. What are they supposed to do? Say "Our shit sucks and isn't price effective compared to others and we bring nothing to the table?" while giving you stuff for free?

137. andyferris ◴[] No.44630507{5}[source]
I think it’s the time slice problem.

Locally I need to pay for my GPU hardware 24x7. Some electricity but mostly going to be hardware cost at my scale (plus I have excess free energy to burn).

Remotely I probably use less than an hour of compute a day. And only workdays.

Combined with batching being computationally more efficient it’s hard to see anything other than local inference ALWAYS being 10x more expensive than data centre inference.

(Would hope and love to be proven wrong about this as it plays out - but that’s the way I see it now).

138. worldsayshi ◴[] No.44630569[source]
> If the gains don't plateau, well then we're obsolete anyways

I think there's room for more nuance here. It could also be a situation of diminishing returns but not a sharp plateau. That could favour the big players. I think I find that scenario most likely, at least in between major breakthroughs.

replies(1): >>44631576 #
139. Aurornis ◴[] No.44630576[source]
> but I cannot understand how programmers (whether complete nobodies or popular figures) dont mind adding a strong dependency on a third party in order to keep programming.

I don’t understand how people consider this a strong dependency.

Changing LLMs is trivial. Some times I’ll switch between LLMs on a whim to experiment. I can close one coding agent app and open another in seconds.

These claims about vendor lock-in and strong dependencies seem to mostly be coming from people watching from a distance, not the people on the ground using these tools.

140. punkspider ◴[] No.44630763{7}[source]
Seems both honest and rude, when it could've been honest and understanding.

Responding to the original comment with 'get lost' and 'we don't want you either' is not constructive in my opinion.

replies(1): >>44630868 #
141. Aurornis ◴[] No.44630780{3}[source]
> We seem to be near the limit of scaling (physics) we're not seeing a lot in clock (some but not enough), and IPC is flat. We are also having power (density) and cooling (air wont cut it any more) issues.

This is exaggeration. CPUs are still getting faster. IPC is increasing, not flat. Cooling on air is fine unless you’re going for high density or low noise.

This is just cynicism. Even an M4 MacBook Pro is substantially faster than an M1 from a few years ago, which is substantially faster than the previous versions.

Server chips are scaling core counts and bandwidth. GPUs are getting faster and faster.

The only way you could conclude scaling is dead is if you ignored all recent progress or you’re expecting improvements at an unrealistically fast rate.

replies(1): >>44640912 #
142. Aurornis ◴[] No.44630789[source]
I don’t get it. There are multiple providers. I cancel one provider and sign up for someone new in a few minutes when I feel like changing. I’ve been doing this every few months.

I think the only people worried about lock-in or Black Mirror themes are the people who are thinking about these subscriptions in an abstract sense.

It’s really easy to change providers. They’re all improving. Competition is intense.

replies(2): >>44631113 #>>44634717 #
143. Aurornis ◴[] No.44630802{3}[source]
> The problem with paid LLMs is that one cannot easily switch to open-source ones (because they are not as good as the paid ones). So, it's a dependency that cannot be avoided

How is that any different than JetBrains versus vim?

Calling LLMs a strong dependency or a lock-in also doesn’t make sense. It’s so easy to switch LLMs or even toggle between them within something like Copilot.

You can also just not use them and write the code manually, which is something you still do in any non-trivial app.

I don’t understand all of these people talking about strong dependencies or vendor lock in, unless those comments are coming from people who haven’t actually used the tools?

144. zaptheimpaler ◴[] No.44630808[source]
Where is the strong dependency? I can point Cursor at Openrouter and use any LLM I want, from multiple providers. Every LLM provider supports the same OpenAI completions API.

I wish the stuff on top - deep research modes, multimodal, voice etc. had a more unified API as well but there's very little lock-in right now.

145. positron26 ◴[] No.44630856{4}[source]
It should not be shocking that we do things better the more we do them. The designs take time to emerge. Experience makes better ideas develop.

As an Emacs user, I anticipate further programming to refine how the glove fits the hand. The solutions we will want as individuals have a lot of dispersion, so I cannot rely on others for everything.

There are plenty of times where I download what others have written and use it as it is, within the bounds of some switches and knobs. Do you want to have such a hands off approach with your primary interface to a computer?

146. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44630868{8}[source]
I'm not sure why anyone expects this conversation to be constructive at this point

People who are cheering for LLM coding because they hate actually coding themselves are cheering for programmers to lose their livelihoods

I am not going to be polite and constructive to people who don't care if my livelihood is destroyed by their new tools. Why should I? They are cheering for my ruin

replies(1): >>44632427 #
147. atleastoptimal ◴[] No.44630939[source]
The advantage of having smarter models is greater than the risk/harm of them being closed source, especially so when speed of execution is a major factor.
148. NiloCK ◴[] No.44631034[source]
> Once it becomes economical to run a Claude 4 class model locally you'll see a lot more people doing that.

By that time Claude 5 (or whatever) will be available over API.

I am grateful for upward pressure from models with published binaries - I do believe this is fundamental floor-raising technology.

Choosing frontier-1 for the sake of privacy, autonomy, etc will always be a hard sell and only ever to a pretty niche market. Even me - I'm ideologically part of this market, but I'm already priced out hardware wise.

149. mythz ◴[] No.44631098[source]
Whilst it's not economically feasible to self-host, using premier OSS models like Kimi K2 / DeepSeek via OpenRouter gets you a great price with a fallback safety net of being able to self-host should the proprietary model Co's collude and try and squeeze more ROI out of us. Hopefully by then the hardware to run the OSS models will be a lot cheaper to run.
150. dbingham ◴[] No.44631113{3}[source]
The same, in theory, applies to social media. But they've all enshittified in very similar ways now that they've captured their audiences. In theory there is intense competition between Meta, Twitter, TikTok, etc, but in actuality the same market forces drive the same enshittification across all of those platforms. They have convergent interests. If they all force more ads and suggested posts on you, they all make more money and you have no where to go.

People are reasonably worried that the same will happen to AI.

replies(1): >>44632421 #
151. komali2 ◴[] No.44631163{3}[source]
They demo'd it live at computex and it was slooooow. Like two characters a second slow. Iirc he had 4 machines clustered.
152. bizzletk ◴[] No.44631234[source]
Programmers have the ability to write tools that make their jobs/lives easier. This is the perfect alignment of incentives where the person who benefits from the production of a high-quality tool has the ability to deliver one into their hands.

And once the tool has been made, many people just give it away for others to benefit from too.

153. hahahal ◴[] No.44631290[source]
> Gemini 2.5 PRO | Claude Opus 4

What I thought you were going to say is “Gemini- wha?”.

I’ve used Gemini 2.5 PRO and would definitely not use it for most of my coding tasks. Yes, it’s better at hard things, but it’s not great at normal things.

I’ve not used Claude 4 Opus yet- I know it’s great at large context- but Claude 4 Sonnet Thinking is mostly good unless the task is too complex, and Claude 4 Sonnet is good for basic operations in 1-2 files- beyond that it’s challenged and makes awful mistakes.

154. asadotzler ◴[] No.44631337[source]
I paid ~$600 for my first Windows compiler, over a grand in today's money. But I didn't have to keep paying every month forever to be able to code at all. Take Claude or whatever away from a vibe coder and they're completely dead in the water.

Apple's fee is like that Visual Studio purchase I made, a fee that lets me compile for their platforms. It's not a subscription without which I can't code anything at all.

Creating a new dependency on monthly subscriptions to unsustainable companies or products is a huge step away from accessible programming of the last 50 years and one that should not so casually be dismissed.

155. asadotzler ◴[] No.44631342[source]
Change the model, learn how to talk to a new and poorly documented model, and get entirely different results. Yep, easy as pie.
156. jmb99 ◴[] No.44631352[source]
What’s your budget and speed requirement? A quad-CPU Xeon E7 v4 server (Supermicro X10QBI, for example) with 1TB of RAM gives you ~340GB/s memory bandwidth and enough actual memory to host a full DeepSeek instance, but it will be relatively slow (a few tokens/s max in my experience). Up front cost a bit under $1k, less if you can source cheap 32GB DDR3 RAM. Power consumption is relatively high, ~1kW under load. But I don’t think you can self host a large model cheaper than that.

(If you need even more memory you could equip one of those servers with 6TB of DDR3 but you’ll lose a bit of bandwidth if you go over 2TB. DDR4 is also a slightly faster option but you’re spending 4x as much for the same capacity.)

replies(2): >>44631449 #>>44644474 #
157. asadotzler ◴[] No.44631358[source]
Paid tools were rarely monthly subscriptions without which you could not produce code or executables.

Further, I can write and compile an application for Mac, Windows, or Linux with entirely free tools including tools provided directly by Apple and Microsoft.

This discussion is about is a monthly subscription, without which, most up and coming coders, certainly "vibe coders," are completely dead in the water.

These two dependencies are not the same. If that's not obvious to you, I don't know what else to say to that.

replies(1): >>44635181 #
158. pmarreck ◴[] No.44631449{3}[source]
This would require massively more power than the Mac Studios.
replies(1): >>44637427 #
159. rapind ◴[] No.44631576{3}[source]
Well diminishing returns will have the same effect as a plateau. If you're on a log with your (much cheaper, Chinese) competition, then your advantage is very quickly microscopic.
replies(1): >>44635374 #
160. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44631767{6}[source]
> And I think these tools are basically useless to skilled senior devs. All this "boilerplate" code folks keep cheering the AI is writing for them is just not that big of a deal. 15 minutes of savings once a month

Yep... Copy and paste with find and replace already had the boilerplate code covered

161. rolisz ◴[] No.44631962{5}[source]
Yes, PyCharm has settings, but I've barely touched them. In 99% of the cases, the out of the box experience just works. Can't exactly say that about vim (or emacs).
162. rolisz ◴[] No.44631964{6}[source]
What kind of crappy machines do your coworkers have? VS code takes 2-3 seconds at most for me to load.
replies(1): >>44637721 #
163. otabdeveloper4 ◴[] No.44631995[source]
a) Rent a GPU server. b) Learn to finetune your models. You're a programmer, right? Whatever happened to knowing your tools?

OP is right, these people are posers and fakers, not programmers.

replies(1): >>44633717 #
164. dinkumthinkum ◴[] No.44632110[source]
If you are so tied to an LLM that you cannot program without one then you are not a programmer. It is not the same as with an IDE or whatever, those are essentially ergonomic and do not speak to your actual competence. This will probably be an unpopular take but its just reality.
165. oblio ◴[] No.44632389{3}[source]
One second, don't LLMs generally run in VRAM? If you put them in regular RAM, don't they have to go through the CPU which kills performance?
replies(1): >>44632409 #
166. pxeger1 ◴[] No.44632409{4}[source]
The mentioned CPU uses unified memory for its built in GPU / NPU. I.e. some portion of what could ordinarily be system RAM is given to the GPU instead of the CPU
replies(1): >>44640365 #
167. senko ◴[] No.44632421{4}[source]
> The same, in theory, applies to social media.

It absolutely does not.

Your use of social network derives value from your network. If you switch, you have to convince everyone else to switch as well.

It's a tremendous barrier to switching.

LLMs are for the most part interchangeable commodity.

replies(2): >>44634795 #>>44654964 #
168. oblio ◴[] No.44632427{9}[source]
Or, you know, you could just... say nothing? Downvote and move on.

It's not like OP is Sam Altman and one of the actual AI bros. This thing will happen or not happen regardless of what OP wants.

Amusingly, you've committed the same basic mistake as LLMs, which just don't know when to shut up :-p

169. nominallyfree ◴[] No.44632489[source]
Us FORTH and LISP hackers will be doing free range code forever.

We can use cheap hardware that can be fixed with soldering irons and oscilloscopes.

People said for decades our projects just become weird DSLs. And now whatever little thing I want to do in any mainstream language involves learning some weird library DSL.

And now people be needing 24h GPU farm access to handle code.

In 50 years my grandkids that wish to will be able to build, repair and program computers with a garage workbench and old wrinkled books. I know most of the software economy will end up in the hands of major corporations capable of paying through the nose for black box low code solutions.

Doesn't matter. Knowledge will set you free if you know where to look.

170. Der_Einzige ◴[] No.44632606{6}[source]
Rudeness is a good rhetorical choice to make a point. Only stupid idiots would think differently.
replies(1): >>44640360 #
171. Abishek_Muthian ◴[] No.44632684[source]
What type of code you write for which the opensource models aren't good enough?

I use Qwen2.5 coder for auto complete and occasional chat. I don't want AI to edit my code and so this works well for me.

I agree that the hardware investment for local AI is steep but IMO the local models are good enough for most experienced coders who just want a better autocomplete than the one provided by the IDE by default.

replies(2): >>44632755 #>>44632804 #
172. arvinsim ◴[] No.44632755{3}[source]
The people who are subscribing to private LLM models are not doing it for better autocomplete. These are the people who want more features like agents.
173. edanm ◴[] No.44632790[source]
> The excuse "but you earn six figures, what' $200/month to you?" doesn't really capture the issue here.

Why?

If I want to pick up many hobbies, not to mention lines of professional work, I have to pay for tools. Why is programming any different? Why should it be?

Complaining that tools that improve your life cost money is... weird, IMO. What's the alternative? A world in which people gift you life-and-work-improving tools for free? For no reason? That doesn't exist.

> Programming used to be (and still is, to a large extent) an activity that can be done with open and free tools.

Btw, I think this was actually less true in the past. Compilers used to cost money in the 70s/80s. I think it's actually cyclical - most likely tools will cost money today, but then down the line, things will start getting cheaper again until they're free.

replies(1): >>44636179 #
174. InterviewFrog ◴[] No.44632804{3}[source]
Using AI for autocomplete is like using a racecar to pick up groceries. This is exactly what the author says about avoiding LLMs for some ideological or psychological refusal.
replies(1): >>44646215 #
175. blackoil ◴[] No.44632809[source]
That's a code time dependency which is of least concern. That's like saying how can a company hire a developer, they are now having a dependency.

Code written will continue to run, you can use alternate LLM to further write code. Unless you are a pure vibe coder, you can still type the code. IF programmer stop learning how to write code, that's on them and not Claude's or antirez responsibility.

We are using best tool available to us, right now it is Claude Code, tomorrow it may be something from OpenAI, Meta or Deepseek.

176. poulpy123 ◴[] No.44633226[source]
Yeah. I cannot even run significantly worse models on any machine I have at home.
177. IanCal ◴[] No.44633249{3}[source]
> Well, isn't it time we started doing the same with LLMs? I'm not talking about MCP, but rather an open source tool that can plug into either free and open source LLMs or private ones.

Almost all providers and models can be used with the OpenAI api and swapping between them is trivial.

178. PeterStuer ◴[] No.44633267[source]
I share uour concerns absolutely, and would run an open model local (or self hosted), but for now the reality is that what is available as such is not satisfactory compared to the closed frontier models only available through SaaS.

I hope this will change before (captured) regulation strangles open models.

179. wahnfrieden ◴[] No.44633271[source]
The dependency arises from rising productivity expectations from employers and the market.

A cabbie is still dependent on the car if they can still drive a horse buggy and order of magnitude slower.

You are only not dependent if you are not doing this professionally and can enjoy the leisure of tending to your horses.

180. PeterStuer ◴[] No.44633302[source]
There is that chance. In other instances commoditization occurs before market consolidation.

As of now, specifically for coding assistance LLM, workflows remain generic enough to have relatively low switching costs between the different models.

181. shivasaxena ◴[] No.44633404{6}[source]
If I may ask, why didn't you just use any available emacs config with python support? There are plenty on github, and ofc there's doom emacs, spacemacs, and probably others.

I can tell you in my case it was because I did want to play with emacs and get my hands dirty. But that does shift the blame to me since it's hardly fair to blame emacs for being so extensible and fun.

replies(1): >>44633947 #
182. MoreQARespect ◴[] No.44633490{3}[source]
The same thing happened with the first internet bubble. It didnt prevent the rise of the internet it just meant some players who, for instance, overinvested in infrastructure ended up taking an L while other players bought up their overbuilt assets for a song and capitalized upon it later.
183. dirkc ◴[] No.44633559[source]
I've personally felt this way about many proprietary tech ecosystems in the past. Still do. I don't want to invest my energy to learn something if the carpet can be pulled from under my feet. And it does happen.

But that is my personal value judgement. And it doesn't mean other people will think the same. Luckily tech is a big space.

184. simonw ◴[] No.44633717{3}[source]
Have you had any success finetuning models? What did you do?
replies(1): >>44646290 #
185. hhh ◴[] No.44633739{5}[source]
Two can run Claude, AWS and Anthropic. Claude rollout on AWS is pretty good, but they do some weird stuff in estimating your quota usage thru your max_tokens parameter.

I trust AWS, but we also pay big bucks to them and have a reason to trust them.

replies(1): >>44641572 #
186. KronisLV ◴[] No.44633756[source]
The software is largely there: you can run Ollama, vLLM or whatever else you please today.

The models are somewhat getting there: even the smaller ones like Qwen3-30B-A3B and Devstral-23B are okay for some use cases and can run decently fast. They’re not amazing, but better than much larger models a year or two ago.

The hardware is absolutely not there: most development laptops will be too weak to run a bunch of tools, IDEs and local services alongside a LLM and will struggle to do everything at the pace of those cloud services.

Even if you seek compromise and get a pair of Nvidia L4 cards or something similar and put them on a server somewhere, the aforementioned Qwen3-30B-A3B will run at around 60 tokens/second for a single query but slow down as you throw a bunch of developers at it that all need chat and autocomplete. The smaller Devstral model will more than halve the performance at the starting point because it’s dense.

Tools like GitHub Copilot allow an Ollama connection pretty easily, Continue.dev also does but can be a bit buggy (their VS Code implementation is better than their JetBrains one), whereas the likes of RooCode only seem viable with cloud models cause they generate large system prompts and need more performance than you can squeeze out of somewhat modest hardware.

That said, with more MoE models and better training, things seem hopeful. Just look at the recent ERNIE-4.5 release, their model is a bit smaller than Qwen3 but has largely comparable benchmark results.

Those Intel Arc Pro B60 cards can’t come soon enough. Someone needs to at least provide a passable alternative to Nvidia, nothing more.

replies(3): >>44633802 #>>44634098 #>>44635589 #
187. stingraycharles ◴[] No.44633802[source]
And models like Qwen3 really don’t match the quality of Opus 4 and Gemini-Pro 2.5. And even if you manage to get your hands on 512GB of GPU RAM, it will be slow.

There’s simply so much going on under the hood at these LLM providers that are very hard to replicate locally.

replies(1): >>44634366 #
188. LeafItAlone ◴[] No.44633886{4}[source]
My opinion is that the value to be that I’ve been getting out of these tools in both my personal and professional projects is greater than value that they (and others using the downstream effects of them) get out of having my particular codebases.

Also, many of my personal projects are open sourced with pretty permissive licensing, so I’m not all that mad someone else has the code.

189. LeafItAlone ◴[] No.44633925{3}[source]
At present, the tools are effectively the same. Claude Code, OpenAI Codex, Google Gemini, etc. are basically the same CLI tools. Every so often one will introduce a new feature (e.g. MCP support), but it’s not long before the others also include it. It is easy to swap between them (and Aider) and on tasks where I want a “second opinion”, I do.

Even if they make their tooling cheaper, that’s not going to lock me in. It has to be the best model or have some killer feature. Which, again, could be usurped the next day with the rate these tools are advancing.

190. LeafItAlone ◴[] No.44633947{7}[source]
I did. I’ve done that and tried them all (granted this was a decade+ ago where the landscape was probably different). But there were all lacking full IDE features like what PyCharm gave me.
191. LeafItAlone ◴[] No.44633986{7}[source]
Sure.

I think it’s odd for you to criticize someone’s reasons when you apparently just reject their underlying premise to begin with (which is, effectively, my experience with a particular open source tool isn’t the best for me and the one I found that does isn’t open source).

Frankly, the idea of having 4 different ways of editing code, as you’ve described above, just seems like a nightmare to me. I like to have one tool that does it all and learn to use that tool well. The Jetbrains tooling allows me to do this with little of my time spent configuring it.

If what you are using works well for you, then I think we should all be happy here.

replies(1): >>44637936 #
192. amelius ◴[] No.44634098[source]
Didn't Karpathy, in his latest talk, say something along the lines of: don't bother with less capable models, they are just a waste of time.
replies(1): >>44635102 #
193. justatdotin ◴[] No.44634366{3}[source]
its impossible to catch up; but there is still much fertile and prospective territory within reach
194. darkoob12 ◴[] No.44634717{3}[source]
In the early days of the Web, competition was intens in Search Engine market but eventually one of them won the competition and became the only viable option. I expect this will happen to AI as well. In future only one AI company will dominate the market and people will have no choice but to use it.
replies(1): >>44635260 #
195. smokel ◴[] No.44634795{5}[source]
Note that the comment you are replying to is speculating about the (not so distant) future. Be assured that companies will try their best to lock customers in.

One option is to add adverts to the generated output, and making the product cheaper than the competition. Another is to have all your cloud data preprocessed with LLMs in a non-portable way, so that changing will incur a huge cost.

196. smokel ◴[] No.44634841[source]
> Programming used to be (and still is, to a large extent) an activity that can be done with open and free tools.

This was largely not the case before 2000, and may not be the case after, say 2030. It may well be that we are living in extraordinary times.

Before 2000 one had to buy expensive compilers and hardware to do serious programming. The rise of the commercial internet has made desktop computers cheaper, and the free software movement (again mostly by means of commercial companies enjoying the benefits) has made a lot of free software available.

However, we now have mostly smartphones, and serious security risks to deal with.

197. michaelbuckbee ◴[] No.44635028[source]
Genuine question as I don't understand the deeper aspects of this, but is it possible that we will see AI specific hardware in the future that will make local AI's more possible?

My general thinking is that we're using graphics processors which _work_ but aren't really designed for AI (lack of memory, etc.).

198. loudmax ◴[] No.44635102{3}[source]
It probably depends what your objective is. One of the benefits you get from running less capable models is that it's easier to understand what their limitations are. The shortcomings of more powerful models are harder to see and understand, because the models themselves are so much more capable.

If you have no interest in the inner workings of LLMs and you just want the machine to spit out some end result while putting in minimal time and effort, then yes, absolutely don't waste your time with smaller, less capable models.

replies(1): >>44637800 #
199. paulddraper ◴[] No.44635181{3}[source]
You can write code with free tools.
200. rwallace ◴[] No.44635260{4}[source]
I'm seeing quite a few people on this site recently talking about their Kagi subscriptions, claiming it is sufficiently better than Google to be worth the money.
replies(1): >>44654954 #
201. cutemonster ◴[] No.44635374{4}[source]
Can't AIs plateau at a prohibitively hight cost, so only the biggest companies can build the really good ones.

Search engine tech isn't that much of a secret nowadays? Still it's prohibitively expensive for almost everyone to build a competitive search engine. What if really good AI turns out to be more like that (both training and inference)

replies(1): >>44636764 #
202. wizee ◴[] No.44635589[source]
On my M4 Max MacBook Pro, with MLX, I get around 70-100 tokens/sec for Qwen 3 30B-A3B (depending on context size), and around 40-50 tokens/sec for Qwen 3 14B. Of course they’re not as good as the latest big models (open or closed), but they’re still pretty decent for STEM tasks, and reasonably fast for me.

I have 128 GB RAM on my laptop, and regularly run multiple multiple VMs and several heavy applications and many browser tabs alongside LLMs like Qwen 3 30B-A3B.

Of course there’s room for hardware to get better, but the Apple M4 Max is a pretty good platform running local LLMs performantly on a laptop.

203. HarHarVeryFunny ◴[] No.44636179[source]
> Btw, I think this was actually less true in the past. Compilers used to cost money in the 70s/80s. I think it's actually cyclical - most likely tools will cost money today, but then down the line, things will start getting cheaper again until they're free.

I don't see it as an inevitable cycle. Free tools (gcc, emacs) and OS (Linux) came about as idealistic efforts driven by hobbyists, with no profit goal/expectation, then improved as large companies moved to support them out self-interest. Companies like RedHat have then managed to make a business model out of selling support for free software.

Free LLMs or other AI-based tools are only going to happen where there are similar altruistic and/or commercial interests at play, and of course the dynamics are very different given the massive development costs of LLMs. It's not a given that SOTA free tools will emerge unless it is the interest of some deep-pocketed entity to make that happen. Perhaps Meta will develop and release SOTA models, but then someone would have to host them which is also expensive. What would the incentive be for someone to host them for free or at-cost?

204. irthomasthomas ◴[] No.44636374[source]
Kimi K2 competes with these. Even beats them in some evals.
205. rapind ◴[] No.44636764{5}[source]
The issue with launching a search engine company is probably mind share more than anything else. Once Google was a verb, it was pretty locked in. Even so, there are alternatives that some people use and find superior, like Kagi and DDG. Now you're seeing a lot of people who just use ChatGPT instead of google for their searches.

For AI, I think that ship has sailed already. OpenAI is the closest to dominance, but not currently the best at all tasks (claude and gemini for some tasks), and everyone else is nipping at their heels, followed by open / cheap models anywhere from 6 months to 1 year behind. Maybe I'm wrong, but as far as I can tell, all evidence points to it becoming a commodity (or utility), similar to cloud computing.

For example AWS is pretty dominant in the cloud computing space, but the differences aren't really that big of a deal for most people and there are services that will extract the cloud for you as a generic services layer. Like OpenRouter does for AI models. Is AWS really better than other cloud providers? Maybe, in some situations, with some requirements, but it's definitely not the general rule. Their focus since the beginning has been layering value on top of this base cloud offering (I'd argue to the point where there are so many services it's confusing AF), and I think it's the same with AI providers. It's even the same players for a lot of it (Google Cloud, AWS, Azure all offer AI services).

replies(1): >>44666197 #
206. jmb99 ◴[] No.44637427{4}[source]
Yep, ~1kW as mentioned. Depending on your electrical rate, break even might be years down the line. And obviously the Mac Studios would perform substantially better.

Edit: And also, to get even half as much memory, you need to spend $10k. If you want to host actually-large LLMs (not quantized/distilled versions), you'll need to spend close to that much. Maybe you can get away with 256GB for now, but that won't even host full Deepseek now (and I don't know if 512GB either, with OS/etc overhead, and a large context window).

207. freedomben ◴[] No.44637721{7}[source]
They mostly have macbooks (I think either M1 or M2?). I don't know if they are loaded with extensions or something that adds time to it, but it definitely takes longer than 2-3 seconds
208. amelius ◴[] No.44637800{4}[source]
Is it really possible to learn from the mistakes of an LLM? It sounds like psychology or even alchemy 2.0, to be honest.
replies(1): >>44644491 #
209. skydhash ◴[] No.44637936{8}[source]
The point I was making was against conflating optimizing tooling and wasting time not solving problems. Not about going with an IDE or not.

Everyone works differently. For most tasks, I prefer Emacs. But for pairing, VS code may be more familiar to others. And it’s hard to get rid of Android Studio and XCode if you’re doing mobile development.

No one can judge workflow and tooling choices as long as the results are in.

210. RugnirViking ◴[] No.44638566{5}[source]
That is, in every sense of the term, their problem.

I will switch to whatever is best for me at a good price, and if thats not sustainable then I'll be fine too; I was a developer before these existed at all, and local models only help from there.

211. mirekrusin ◴[] No.44639810{4}[source]
You're welcome.
212. oblio ◴[] No.44640360{7}[source]
Almost any form of speech/writing is a rhetorical choice.

Rudeness being considered a <<good>> rhetorical choice reflects poorly on its source's rhetorical prowess.

213. oblio ◴[] No.44640365{5}[source]
Ah, now I see, didn't know that was feasible in the PC world. Glad that it's becoming an option.
214. zer00eyz ◴[] No.44640912{4}[source]
> IPC is increasing, not flat.

Benchmarks going up is not IPC increasing. These are separate things.

Please look IPC for the latest GPU's from Nvidia, the latest CPU's from AMD. The IPC is flat. See intel loosing credibility with failing processors due to power problems from clocking because IPC is flat.

> Even an M4 MacBook Pro is substantially faster than an M1

Again, clocking. m4 (non pro) vs m1 are so close in IPC on common tasks that its negligible. The performance gains between the two are from memory bandwidth not core performance.

> Server chips are scaling core counts

Parallelism is not the same as performance. Intel dropping the "core duo" 20 year ago was that RUNNING at 2ghz was an admission that single threading was ending. 20 years on were 20 cores deep (consumer), and only at 4ghz with "boost clocks" (back to that pesky power and cooling problem).

And this product still exists today: the N150 (close enough). Its has lower power consumption and more cores. And what was the single core performance gain? 35% Improvement in 20 years.

None of these things are running any of the LLM's that power the tools were talking about. Those are in the datacenter. 700 core CPU's, 400-800gbps top of rack switching are the bleeding edge. This is where "power" and cooling have hit the wall. The spacing requirements of a bleeding edge NVIDIA install are impacting the costs of interconnect between systems. Lots of fiber and needing to be spaced out because of power/heat adds up to a boat load of extra networking costs. Having half empty racks because of density is now a reality.

And you see these same issues at home: power demands of GPU's for consumers and workstations are thought he roof. Were past what the PCI spec can provide, all that power is heat and has to go somewhere. Sometimes it burns up poorly designed connectors. The latest gen is consumes even more power, to push clocks higher, for very little gain (see flat IPC nvida).

215. viraptor ◴[] No.44641572{6}[source]
In a way... But it's still just because Anthropic lets them. Things can change at any point.
216. theshrike79 ◴[] No.44644288[source]
This is the thing. I'm waiting for the equivalent of Google Coral[0], but powerful enough for AI workloads.

You can plug in the $60 Coral to a Raspberry Pi and get real-time image recognition running in Frigate.

When I can have:

1) Something similar inside my computer/laptop

2) Something I can plug in to my computer via USB-C

3) Something I can buy and install to my LAN so all devices in my home can connect to it

I'll buy it instantly.

What I don't want is a massive generic GPU that just happens to be good at AI workloads, I want custom hardware that's more efficient and cheaper.

(Off topic, but my guess is that Apple is aiming for #3 with an Apple TV variant so you can have more power than your phone, but still keep it 100% local)

[0] https://coral.ai/products/accelerator/

217. theshrike79 ◴[] No.44644474{3}[source]
I think we're at early 2000's bitcoin markets here.

People were buying stores empty of GPUs to mine for BTC.

Then people built custom ASICs that couldn't do anything but mine BTC, but did it a lot cheaper and with a lot less electricity required -> nobody GPU mines anymore pretty much.

I'm waiting for a similar thing to happen to local AI.

218. theshrike79 ◴[] No.44644491{5}[source]
You can kinda get a feel for what they're good at, if you get what I mean?

Even the big online models have very specific styles and preferences for similar tasks. You can easily test this by giving them all some generic task without too many limits, each of them will gravitate towards a different solution to the same problem.

219. manmal ◴[] No.44646215{4}[source]
Nothing's wrong with using autocomplete in addition to agents.
220. otabdeveloper4 ◴[] No.44646290{4}[source]
Not yet. That day will come though.
221. airspresso ◴[] No.44652673{5}[source]
Yes, for inference the main bottleneck is GPU VRAM and the bandwidth between the GPU cores and VRAM. Ideally you want enough GPU VRAM to be able to load the entire model into VRAM + have room for caching the already-produced output in VRAM when you're generating output tokens. And fast enough VRAM bandwidth that you can copy the weights from VRAM to GPU compute cores as fast as possible to do the calculations for each token. This determines the tokens/sec speed you get for the output. So yes, more and faster VRAM is essential.
222. abid786 ◴[] No.44654954{5}[source]
This site is not all representative of the average internet user though
223. abid786 ◴[] No.44654964{5}[source]
More and more of the social networks are just the algorithm though - tiktok, X, Facebook, etc. How much of your feed does the average use personally know now?
224. cutemonster ◴[] No.44666197{6}[source]
Good points, that makes sense. Comparing to AWS etc seems better.

At the same time, an AI that stays up to date with world events and everything new that happens, would in a way have to be both a compute platform + a search engine combined? (To find and train on "everything new".)

But most wouldn't need such an AI (RAG is usually good enough, right), for example not needed software development.

Maybe for a limited time a hardware company could get a monopoly? Eg Nvidia. But they sell to everyone, don't they, fortunately (except for export restrictions)

replies(1): >>44684474 #
225. rapind ◴[] No.44684474{7}[source]
NVidia is the exception in this space. They legitimately found the free money printer. Everyone has to buy from them for now. Meanwhile most of the AI software players aren't turning a profit yet.

It's all been priced in though.

226. haskellshill ◴[] No.44730490{3}[source]
This is a reply to an old comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44452679 (since I cannot reply in the original thread)

> Even assuming python's foreach loop in these cases get optimized down to a very bare for loop, the operations being performed are dominated by the looping logic itself, because the loop body is so simple.

> Each iteration of a for loop performs one index update and one termination comparison. For a simple body that is just an XOR, that's the difference between performing 5 operations (update, exit check, read array, XOR with value, XOR with index) per N elements in the one loop case versus 7 operations (update, exit, read array, XOR with value, then update, exit, XOR with index) in the two loop case. So we're looking at a 29% savings in operations.

> It gets worse if the looping structure does not optimize to a raw, most basic for loop and instead constructs some kind of lazy collection iterator generalized for all kinds of collections it could iterate over.

> The smaller the loop body, the higher the gains from optimizing the looping construct itself.

Let's test your claims

  import random
  import time
  n = int(1e7)
  A = list(range(1,n+1))
  random.shuffle(A)
  print("Removed:", A.pop())

  t = time.time()
  result = 0
  for idx,val in enumerate(A):
    result ^= idx+1
    result ^= val
  result ^= n
  print("1-loop:", time.time() - t)
  print("Missing:", result)

  t = time.time()
  result = 0
  for value in range(1, n + 1):
    result ^= value
  for value in A:
    result ^= value
  print("2-loop:", time.time() - t)
  print("Missing:", result)
A sample run gives:

  Removed: 2878763
  1-loop: 1.4764018058776855
  Missing: 2878763
  2-loop: 1.1730067729949951
  Missing: 2878763
And after swapping the order of the code blocks just to ensure there's nothing strange going on:

  Removed: 3217501
  2-loop: 1.200080156326294
  Missing: 3217501
  1-loop: 1.5053350925445557
  Missing: 3217501
So indeed we have about a 20% speedup, only in the complete opposite direction that you claimed we'd have. Perhaps it's best not to assume when talking about performance.
replies(1): >>44781988 #
227. moron4hire ◴[] No.44781988{4}[source]
I think all you have managed to prove is A) Python is absurd, and B) you need to learn about appropriate boundaries and when to drop something.

This conversation was a lifetime ago. You couldn't reply to the original thread for a reason.