When did estimates turn into deadlines?

I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered.

Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?"

"Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work.

A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.

> Kirk: Mr. Scott. Have you always multiplied your repair estimates by a factor of four?

> Scotty: Certainly, sir. How else can I keep my reputation as a miracle worker?

> the first number you put out will be remembered

This is called anchoring effect, a psychological bias.

There’s a whole generation of developers who have internalized this.

There’s a whole generation of management who have caused this due to their own behavior.

I think you meant "anchoring bias": https://www.scribbr.com/research-bias/anchoring-bias/

Anchoring effect is something related but subltley different: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring_effect

Is it? If you visit

https://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases#Anch...

and follow the first link labeled

  Main article: Anchoring (cognitive bias)

you may be surprised.

Actually, you may also read the first link you sent and be equally surprised:

  Anchoring bias (also known as anchoring heuristic or anchoring effect)

https://www.scribbr.com/research-bias/anchoring-bias/#what

My rule: list all the tasks, estimate times for each task, add up all the estimates, and multiply the results by π. If you're using unknown technology, use π^2.

My method is take an educated guess multiply by 2 add 1 as extra buffer and then change it to the next unit, e.g. day->week, week->month, months->quarter. So for something that it should take 1 day I'd say 3 weeks. It seems a lot but at the end there's usually so much red tape, burocracy and and technical debt that it usually ends in the latter ballpark.

Nice algorithm!

I do something similar but I use the Indiana version of 3.2 https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/30214/new-math-time-indi...

Governments around the world must be using it too where a year turns into 3 decades.