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318 points alexzeitler | 3 comments | 19 Nov 24 20:03 UTC | HN request time: 0.782s | source

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baxtr ◴[19 Nov 24 21:53 UTC] No.42188500[source]▶

I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered.

Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?"

"Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work.

A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.

1. darekkay ◴[19 Nov 24 22:00 UTC] No.42188563[source]▶

> the first number you put out will be remembered

This is called anchoring effect, a psychological bias.

replies(1): >>42189303 #

2. robocat ◴[19 Nov 24 23:45 UTC] No.42189303[source]▶

Anchoring effect is something related but subltley different: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring_effect

replies(1): >>42189860 #

3. kgwgk ◴[20 Nov 24 01:13 UTC] No.42189860[source]▶

Is it? If you visit

and follow the first link labeled

  Main article: Anchoring (cognitive bias)

you may be surprised.

Actually, you may also read the first link you sent and be equally surprised:

  Anchoring bias (also known as anchoring heuristic or anchoring effect)

When did estimates turn into deadlines?