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When did estimates turn into deadlines?

(domainanalysis.io)
324 points alexzeitler | 6 comments | 19 Nov 24 20:03 UTC | HN request time: 0.826s | source | bottom
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baxtr ◴[19 Nov 24 21:53 UTC] No.42188500[source]▶
I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered.

Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?"

"Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work.

A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.

replies(3): >>42188541 #>>42188563 #>>42191326 #
1. floren ◴[19 Nov 24 21:57 UTC] No.42188541[source]▶
> Kirk: Mr. Scott. Have you always multiplied your repair estimates by a factor of four?

> Scotty: Certainly, sir. How else can I keep my reputation as a miracle worker?

replies(2): >>42188890 #>>42190657 #
2. dhosek ◴[19 Nov 24 22:45 UTC] No.42188890[source]▶
There’s a whole generation of developers who have internalized this.
replies(1): >>42188985 #
3. ikiris ◴[19 Nov 24 22:59 UTC] No.42188985[source]▶
There’s a whole generation of management who have caused this due to their own behavior.
replies(1): >>42189300 #
4. ◴[19 Nov 24 23:45 UTC] No.42189300{3}[source]▶
5. dtgriscom ◴[20 Nov 24 03:45 UTC] No.42190657[source]▶
My rule: list all the tasks, estimate times for each task, add up all the estimates, and multiply the results by π. If you're using unknown technology, use π^2.
replies(1): >>42197147 #
6. EasyMark ◴[20 Nov 24 19:14 UTC] No.42197147[source]▶
I do something similar but I use the Indiana version of 3.2 https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/30214/new-math-time-indi...