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When did estimates turn into deadlines?

(domainanalysis.io)
318 points alexzeitler | 2 comments | 19 Nov 24 20:03 UTC | HN request time: 0.635s | source
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baxtr ◴[19 Nov 24 21:53 UTC] No.42188500[source]▶
I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered.

Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?"

"Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work.

A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.

replies(3): >>42188541 #>>42188563 #>>42191326 #
floren ◴[19 Nov 24 21:57 UTC] No.42188541[source]▶
> Kirk: Mr. Scott. Have you always multiplied your repair estimates by a factor of four?

> Scotty: Certainly, sir. How else can I keep my reputation as a miracle worker?

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1. dtgriscom ◴[20 Nov 24 03:45 UTC] No.42190657[source]▶
My rule: list all the tasks, estimate times for each task, add up all the estimates, and multiply the results by π. If you're using unknown technology, use π^2.
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2. EasyMark ◴[20 Nov 24 19:14 UTC] No.42197147[source]▶
I do something similar but I use the Indiana version of 3.2 https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/30214/new-math-time-indi...