←back to thread

When did estimates turn into deadlines?

(domainanalysis.io)
318 points alexzeitler | 3 comments | 19 Nov 24 20:03 UTC | HN request time: 0.626s | source
Show context
baxtr ◴[19 Nov 24 21:53 UTC] No.42188500[source]▶
I learned something important early in my career: the first number you put out will be remembered.

Unfortunately it’s often true. People keep saying: "but didn’t you initially say X?"

"Sure I did, but I have new knowledge" won't always work.

A nasty side-effect is that people who are aware of this shy away from giving you numbers.

replies(3): >>42188541 #>>42188563 #>>42191326 #
1. vander_elst ◴[20 Nov 24 06:40 UTC] No.42191326[source]▶
My method is take an educated guess multiply by 2 add 1 as extra buffer and then change it to the next unit, e.g. day->week, week->month, months->quarter. So for something that it should take 1 day I'd say 3 weeks. It seems a lot but at the end there's usually so much red tape, burocracy and and technical debt that it usually ends in the latter ballpark.
replies(1): >>42191882 #
2. baxtr ◴[20 Nov 24 08:38 UTC] No.42191882[source]▶
Nice algorithm!
replies(1): >>42202148 #
3. dizhn ◴[21 Nov 24 08:09 UTC] No.42202148[source]▶
Governments around the world must be using it too where a year turns into 3 decades.