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360 points danielmorozoff | 35 comments | | HN request time: 0.002s | source | bottom
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ckemere ◴[] No.45035120[source]
I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly.

If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a huge win for them for a cost that no one else was willing to pay.

To be clear, at that order of magnitude they might make back their investment, but it won’t be 10x or 100x, and the potential healthy-brain-connected-to-the-AI play is much less rooted in reality than Teslas all becoming taxis.

Worst case scenario is that Elon loses interest and pulls the plug and Mr Arbaugh loses continued tech support a la a google product. I think that’s the one question I wish the author had asked…

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1. rc5150 ◴[] No.45035214[source]
The unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle, which I think is the common perspective; optics and money.

Then there's the pessimists, like me, wondering how long it'll take to Neuralink to turn their army of computer connected paraplegics into some Mechanical Turk-esque Grok clean up.

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2. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.45035519[source]
Things have costs so we should be ok with a society where the wealthy exploit poor and desperate people?
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3. lmm ◴[] No.45035595{3}[source]
Far too often I see someone stepping in to stop some "exploitation" and thereby making the poor/desperate people they were supposedly helping worse off.
4. TheDong ◴[] No.45035629{3}[source]
This is the forum for a VC-funded startup accelerator, so yes, the implicit belief you hold if you're posting here is supposed to be "VCs deserve money, i.e. the wealthy deserve more wealth, and I will help them get there".

It's not exactly the same as "so we should exploit the poor and desperate", but that is one of the pitches VCs like the most.

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5. orbital-decay ◴[] No.45035659{3}[source]
The supposedly cynical comment above talks about giving quadriplegic people a reliable way to control computers for <$100k, something that was science fiction before. Is this what you call exploitation of the poor and desperate by the wealthy? You have to finance things somehow, or they won't be done at all.
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6. orbital-decay ◴[] No.45035770{5}[source]
As much as I dislike (current) Musk, the comment I'm responding to clearly wasn't about that. Do you see this work being done by anyone else? I don't. And yes, it has the potential to turn dystopian, sure. Don't let it. I don't know how some people manage to see everything as strictly black and white.

Being called a bot was unexpected, to put it mildly.

7. distortionfield ◴[] No.45035885{3}[source]
Exploiting? I’m lefty, but this dude volunteered for the procedure and was fully reimbursed. I’m having a really hard time seeing “exploited” on this one.
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8. thinkingemote ◴[] No.45035931{4}[source]
According to the left exploitation can occur when people choose and are paid for it.

For example demeaning work. Also much of slavery, indentured servitude in the past was chosen and fully reimbursed. Most classic lefties would say all work is exploitation under capitalism.

It's the idea of individualism mostly seen on the right wing and the modern/American democratic left that says that people make free and rational choices in an amoral economic model. When money sets the rules there is no exploitation. I think the reality isn't so black and white and people can make good and bad decisions.

So while I agree he probably wasn't exploited it doesn't mean that others in the same place doing the same things will not be.

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9. distortionfield ◴[] No.45036039{5}[source]
I’m familiar with those applications of exploitation, too, but they also wouldn’t apply here. This wasn’t demeaning work and wasn’t predicated on necessity, past their disability.

And of course, all work is exploitation under capitalism (from a true lefty point of view) but I didn’t perceive the original comment as referring to that level of exploitation. Just saying that this isn’t the hill to die on if one wants a case for capitalist exploitation.

I do understand the dangers of others being exploited down the line but again, that wasn’t what OP was saying either.

Really, if this is exploitative it’s only an indictment of profit incentives in healthcare, which are abhorrent.

10. wordofx ◴[] No.45036180[source]
Things are only created or expanded if there is a return. Its that simple.
11. p_v_doom ◴[] No.45036269{4}[source]
There are many ways to finance this without strapping a parasite to leech off of it on top
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12. CalRobert ◴[] No.45036391{3}[source]
Pretending scarcities don't exist is one of the biggest problems with current policy.
13. notarobot123 ◴[] No.45036455[source]
It does kinda feel like there's an accidental attempt to LARP the plot of Kurt Vonnegut's The Sirens of Titan (if you squint hard enough) - richest man in the world, brain control, Mars colony, attempted coup on Earth... all the plot points are there!
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14. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.45036527[source]
> unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle

It’s just a pragmatic take on sustainability of innovation. If nobody—no person or government or non-profit—would find value in the future of the work, it merits questioning why do it versus something else.

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15. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.45036544{4}[source]
> this dude volunteered for the procedure and was fully reimbursed

And it worked! The animal subjects were exploited. This man was not.

The only way I can square this circle is with the hypothesis that everything a billionaire does must be exploitative of the poor. (Which holds about as much water as its balancing hypothesis on the far right about leftists being good for nothing more than whining.)

16. itake ◴[] No.45036561{3}[source]
The problem here is what is the best use of our resources? Neurolink has raised a total of $1.29B USD.

Is funding a high risk project the right allocation of $1.29B that supports a tiny fraction of humanity or would $1.29B be better spent on cancer research, addressing childhood food insecurities (free school lunches), etc?

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17. h0h0h0h0111 ◴[] No.45036672[source]
I don't think it's unfortunate - in principle, return on investment today can achieve greater humanitarian impact tomorrow vs humanitarian impact today.

Of course, this creates a perverse situation where choosing humanitarian impact today over investment is always irrational, but this is the fundamental tension in charity vs investment, and aside from relying on governments and guilt, I'm not sure we have discovered a great model to solve it

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18. moomin ◴[] No.45036984[source]
Problem is, when people start to analyse things like this, even apart from falling into utilitarian traps, they don’t apply regular business reasoning.

There’s a bunch of effects to consider 1) improving lives right now may well improve subsequent generations lives directly 2) your future project may have a higher failure rate than your current one 3) the problems you are trying to solve may no longer be relevant in the future 4) you could be very wrong about future population growth.

All of this boils down to: you should be risk-discounting future benefits just the same way as you do future cash flows.

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19. regularfry ◴[] No.45037004[source]
There's a spectrum here, though. There's a difference between "nobody would find value in the work" and "nobody can figure out how to get VC-level returns from the work on VC timescales."
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20. andriesm ◴[] No.45037150{4}[source]
Do we know? Is this answerable in advance? Probably not.
21. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.45037201{3}[source]
> a difference between "nobody would find value in the work" and "nobody can figure out how to get VC-level returns from the work on VC timescales”

In theory, yes. But other than maybe rare-disease research, I’m struggling to think of an example in medical research.

22. autoexec ◴[] No.45037641{3}[source]
It's the people thinking about the bottom line who will push for the gradual enshittification of the product until it's beaming ads into people's brain, preventing them from saying anything bad about elon, forcing them to sing his praises against their will, or charging them a monthly fee for "continued autonomous breathing as a service".

Taking a good thing and fucking people over with it in every way possible is "regular business reasoning"

At a certain point it's smart to say "We have the technology to do something good, let's be extremely cautious about concerns over what's profitable and focus on doing what's right with it"

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23. herculity275 ◴[] No.45037663[source]
Once Elon gets a robotic arm, steel teeth and prosthetic eyes that's when we know we're in real trouble.
24. herculity275 ◴[] No.45037703[source]
> how long it'll take to Neuralink to turn their army of computer connected paraplegics into some Mechanical Turk-esque Grok clean up

It's really hard for me to imagine that making more logistic sense than the current state of affairs - which is hiring armies of poor able-bodied people in developing countries.

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25. probably_wrong ◴[] No.45037750[source]
It's not that difficult, really.

"By using this implant I agree to the collection and sharing of analysis data with Neuralink and its trusted third parties".

[ ] Agree

[ ] Ask me later

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26. jodrellblank ◴[] No.45038029{5}[source]
> "much of slavery was chosen"

Have you ever thought of "choosing slavery" for yourself and your children? No, because given a choice, nobody would choose to be a slave. The fact that people "choose" to be slaves is evidence that they had Hobson's choice. Probably because the wealthy and powerful arranged the system and laws to give people no choice because they wanted slaves.

> "When money sets the rules there is no exploitation

People didn't freely choose to migrate from their ancestral homeland, farming and hunting and grazing animals on common ground, to go and "find their fortune" in the slums and workhouses of the growing urban areas; the land was taken by force, the laws were set by the wealthy to kick the commoners off, to make wild grazing and hunting illegal, to shift the taxes away from land and onto trade, and the commoners were forced into it or "choose" starvation. William the 'Conqueror' in 1066 in Britain started it and set the model for the British colonies and British Empire which pushed it out around the world. From[1]:

"the Anglo-Saxon period as the system of law know as ‘folkland’, whereby land was held in allodial title by the group or regional community .. 1066-7 Norman invasion displaces Anglo-Saxon commons/land ownership model. William the Bastard declares that all land, animals and people in the country belong to him personally. .. We go from a country in which >90% of people owned land, to a country of landless serfs, themselves owned by foreign lords. .. The intended effect was precisely the result: the dispossession of the ‘common folk’ (i.e. anyone who wasn’t a Latin speaking Norman aristocrat) of their ancestral lands and rights."

"Commons Act 1236 allowed Lords to enclose common land .. Statutes of Westminster 1275/85/90 restrict subtenure/sale of parcels of land other than to the direct heirs of the landlord. These restrictions gave rise to .. the retention and control by the nobility of land, money, soldiers and servants via salaries, land sales and rent. In-effect, this was the start of modern wage-slavery"

"1536 to 1541 Dissolution of the Monasteries by Henry VIII, who privatises church lands (then 1/5th of the country). As these lands were often used by commoners, for grazing – this dispossesses people further from essential access to the land and generates yet more landless people who are wholly dependent upon the emerging model of selling their labour to survive i.e. wage-slavery. 1671 Game Act made it illegal to hunt wild animals, considered a common right since time immemorial. 1700-1850 Parliamentary Enclosures, now no longer held back by the sections of the Church, nor by the power of the (heavily indebted) nobility and Monarchy, land enclosures increase exponentially in both speed and size, and the new urban slums grew correspondingly"

"By 1700 half all arable lands are enclosed, and by 1815 nearly all farm land was enclosed; hunting, grazing, pannage, foraging, wood collection and gleaning rights, are all but lost. From 1750 to 1820 desperate poachers were ‘hanged en-mass’. 1800-1850 the Highland Clearances led to the displacement of up to 500,000 Highlanders and crofters, tens of thousands of which died in the early-mid 19th century, their settlements and economies replaced by Sheep. An esteemed member of the ‘British’ aristocracy noted: ‘It is time to make way for the grand-improvement of mutton over man.’. 1790-1830 a third of the rural population migrates to urban slums. Where they are put to work in early forms of factories, workhouses"

[1] https://tlio.org.uk/a-short-angry-history-of-land-in-britain...

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27. Almondsetat ◴[] No.45038903[source]
If something cannot stand on its own two legs, then it can be the most awesome stuff in the world but it will die nonetheless. Being self-sustainable (i.e. profitable) greatly helps with keeping the show going. The alternative is either becoming publicly owned (i.e. paid with your taxes whether you want it or not) or to fail miserably and have all your technology and talent scattered.
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28. butterandguns ◴[] No.45039881[source]
Unfortunate phrasing about inability to stand on its own two legs or it dies here.
29. notnullorvoid ◴[] No.45041762{3}[source]
The point is the scale of poor people vastly outweighs the scale of Neuralink users. It's not worth both the setup cost, nor the backlash to convert the relatively small number of Neuralink users into forced labour. Especially since they would still need the poor workforce as well.

Agreeing to data collection and sharing of your brain activity while concerning for it's own reasons, is not the same as forcing them to complete Mechanical Turk like tasks.

30. DoesntMatter22 ◴[] No.45042396[source]
To me that's the greatest part. Probably everyone working on this is interested in the humanitarian angle, and they know this can benefit potentially millions. But ROI is partly what's required to make it sustainable long term. And that's a great thing to me. It motivates business people to put money into it.
31. salawat ◴[] No.45042598{4}[source]
I want to say the answer to this is "not all lurkers/posters", because at this point I'm more treating this place as an early warning system for how the hellhole dystopia will come about.

The amount of self-censoring I've ramped up to to keep anything useful from amoral VC's though does appear to prove your point though.

32. est31 ◴[] No.45043227{4}[source]
I really loved the "Common People" episode from Black Mirror. IMO it's the best episode of the whole series. It shows the enshittification cycle of technology really well applied to technology connected to your brain.
33. lmm ◴[] No.45048518{5}[source]
Are those many ways to finance it in the room with us right now?
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34. ◴[] No.45050110{6}[source]
35. SV_BubbleTime ◴[] No.45052690{6}[source]
See “all the right things to do haven’t been tried yet!”.