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360 points danielmorozoff | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source
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ckemere ◴[] No.45035120[source]
I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly.

If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a huge win for them for a cost that no one else was willing to pay.

To be clear, at that order of magnitude they might make back their investment, but it won’t be 10x or 100x, and the potential healthy-brain-connected-to-the-AI play is much less rooted in reality than Teslas all becoming taxis.

Worst case scenario is that Elon loses interest and pulls the plug and Mr Arbaugh loses continued tech support a la a google product. I think that’s the one question I wish the author had asked…

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rc5150 ◴[] No.45035214[source]
The unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle, which I think is the common perspective; optics and money.

Then there's the pessimists, like me, wondering how long it'll take to Neuralink to turn their army of computer connected paraplegics into some Mechanical Turk-esque Grok clean up.

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JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.45036527[source]
> unfortunate part is that your first thought went to return on investment rather than the humanitarian angle

It’s just a pragmatic take on sustainability of innovation. If nobody—no person or government or non-profit—would find value in the future of the work, it merits questioning why do it versus something else.

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1. regularfry ◴[] No.45037004{3}[source]
There's a spectrum here, though. There's a difference between "nobody would find value in the work" and "nobody can figure out how to get VC-level returns from the work on VC timescales."
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2. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.45037201[source]
> a difference between "nobody would find value in the work" and "nobody can figure out how to get VC-level returns from the work on VC timescales”

In theory, yes. But other than maybe rare-disease research, I’m struggling to think of an example in medical research.