US economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than earlier estimates

1. jocaal ◴[26 Jun 25 23:27 UTC] No.44392451[source]▶

https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025?tid=175098...

Polymarket puts 30% chance on a recession.

2. consumer451 ◴[27 Jun 25 01:39 UTC] No.44393083[source]▶

I have a heavy bias against that website, but it may be unfounded.

It's been around for a while now, are there any 3rd party reliable studies showing how good polymarket markets are at predicting events?

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3. NewJazz ◴[27 Jun 25 04:06 UTC] No.44393613[source]▶

>>44393083 #

They work well! Almost as well as Tarot.

4. ◴[27 Jun 25 07:41 UTC] No.44394611[source]▶

>>44393083 #

5. yesco ◴[27 Jun 25 13:29 UTC] No.44396662[source]▶

>>44393083 #

Rather than viewing it as a predictive system, I think it's more pragmatic to view it as a kind of poll. Basically it's a quick and dirty way to check general sentiment around certain topics.

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6. Balgair ◴[27 Jun 25 13:36 UTC] No.44396704{3}[source]▶

>>44396662 #

I don't know about that one. The people that it 'polls' aren't that representative, leading to heavy bias. Which is fine, you can correct for that. It's just that I don't know their biases!

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7. spprashant ◴[27 Jun 25 14:10 UTC] No.44396940[source]▶

>>44393083 #

Anecdotally, when the US presidential elections were in the final few weeks, and the polls were leaning Harris, prediction markets suddenly slipped towards favoring Trump against conventional wisdom.

There was one investor from France I believe who bet heavily on Trump winning almost $28M. After election it was revealed he had some private polling done, which informed his decision.

It doesn't answer the question you posed, but I believe these markets could highlight some inefficiencies that conventional mainstream information cannot capture.

8. consumer451 ◴[27 Jun 25 22:29 UTC] No.44400857{4}[source]▶

>>44396704 #

It's a marketplace which is illegal to bet on in the USA, and commonly creates betting markets for US political events. What an interesting self-selection of users that creates.