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US economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than earlier estimates

(apnews.com)
355 points Aloisius | 1 comments | 26 Jun 25 19:23 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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jocaal ◴[26 Jun 25 23:27 UTC] No.44392451[source]▶
https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025?tid=175098...

Polymarket puts 30% chance on a recession.

replies(1): >>44393083 #
consumer451 ◴[27 Jun 25 01:39 UTC] No.44393083[source]▶
I have a heavy bias against that website, but it may be unfounded.

It's been around for a while now, are there any 3rd party reliable studies showing how good polymarket markets are at predicting events?

replies(4): >>44393613 #>>44394611 #>>44396662 #>>44396940 #
yesco ◴[27 Jun 25 13:29 UTC] No.44396662[source]▶
Rather than viewing it as a predictive system, I think it's more pragmatic to view it as a kind of poll. Basically it's a quick and dirty way to check general sentiment around certain topics.
replies(1): >>44396704 #
Balgair ◴[27 Jun 25 13:36 UTC] No.44396704{3}[source]▶
I don't know about that one. The people that it 'polls' aren't that representative, leading to heavy bias. Which is fine, you can correct for that. It's just that I don't know their biases!
replies(1): >>44400857 #
1. consumer451 ◴[27 Jun 25 22:29 UTC] No.44400857{4}[source]▶
It's a marketplace which is illegal to bet on in the USA, and commonly creates betting markets for US political events. What an interesting self-selection of users that creates.