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355 points Aloisius | 1 comments | 26 Jun 25 19:23 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source

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jocaal ◴[26 Jun 25 23:27 UTC] No.44392451[source]▶

Polymarket puts 30% chance on a recession.

replies(1): >>44393083 #

I have a heavy bias against that website, but it may be unfounded.

It's been around for a while now, are there any 3rd party reliable studies showing how good polymarket markets are at predicting events?

1. NewJazz ◴[27 Jun 25 04:06 UTC] No.44393613[source]▶

They work well! Almost as well as Tarot.

US economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than earlier estimates