US economy shrank 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than earlier estimates

(apnews.com)

355 points Aloisius | 1 comments | 26 Jun 25 19:23 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source

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jocaal ◴[26 Jun 25 23:27 UTC] No.44392451[source]▶

>>44390454 (OP) #

https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025?tid=175098...

Polymarket puts 30% chance on a recession.

replies(1): >>44393083 #

consumer451 ◴[27 Jun 25 01:39 UTC] No.44393083[source]▶

>>44392451 #

I have a heavy bias against that website, but it may be unfounded.

It's been around for a while now, are there any 3rd party reliable studies showing how good polymarket markets are at predicting events?

replies(4): >>44393613 #>>44394611 #>>44396662 #>>44396940 #

1. spprashant ◴[27 Jun 25 14:10 UTC] No.44396940[source]▶

>>44393083 #

Anecdotally, when the US presidential elections were in the final few weeks, and the polls were leaning Harris, prediction markets suddenly slipped towards favoring Trump against conventional wisdom.

There was one investor from France I believe who bet heavily on Trump winning almost $28M. After election it was revealed he had some private polling done, which informed his decision.

It doesn't answer the question you posed, but I believe these markets could highlight some inefficiencies that conventional mainstream information cannot capture.

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