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388 points pseudolus | 49 comments | | HN request time: 0.002s | source | bottom
1. ferguess_k ◴[] No.43493912[source]
What I worry a lot more instead is how knowledge of manufacturing and engineering could be lost due to our greed.

Typical scenario: Industry I is not doing fine in country C (i.e. the fund managers are not happy about lack of growth of the public companies in this sector) due to reasons R1, R2, ..., Rn. Then management decided to outsource and eventually dismantle the factories to "globalize" it. Knowledge retained by the older generation of engineers, technicians and workers were completely lost when they passed away.

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2. ge96 ◴[] No.43494035[source]
Didn't that already happen with US to China from the 70s
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3. mschuster91 ◴[] No.43494068[source]
> Knowledge retained by the older generation of engineers, technicians and workers were completely lost when they passed away.

That has happened quite often in the past [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lost_inventions

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4. DAGdug ◴[] No.43494107[source]
Some about being pedantic, but what’s the value of I,C, R1-Rn here? Seems like a distraction!
5. tempodox ◴[] No.43494108[source]
Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
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6. kjkjadksj ◴[] No.43494172[source]
This is a huge deal in some industries even today. Such as film photography. No one makes 35mm cameras although it would be all too easy to rehash a good 90s point and shoot model and have it sell like hotcakes (see prices/hype on olympus mjuII). No one even makes or services lab scanners anymore; all those noritsus and fronteirs for pro lab scans are approaching 30 years old and nothing is even close on the market or could even catch up to what went on in terms of R and D building these machines for a seriously profitable industry at the time.

Film has been getting increasingly popular. Local film labs are busy and new ones are opening. It is the vinyl record of imaging. Yet despite this, kodak and fujifilm have responded as most lack of forsight businesses do and cut film stocks, raised prices, constantly trying to squeeze more blood from the stone which goes on to kill growth in the industry vs supporting it and fostering actual growth and more profits more than 1 quarter out.

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7. al_borland ◴[] No.43494174[source]
I think about this often and it bothers me a lot.

I think the same can happen for knowledge work. Country A ends up turning into a bunch of managers outsourcing to Country B, and then at some point Country B realizes they can manage themselves. Companies are quite literally training their future competition. Once it reaches a tipping point, I don’t think it’s easy to reverse.

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8. aaronax ◴[] No.43494229[source]
Only three real examples on that page.

Petrification: no real loss to society but I will concede that this appears to be an example of actual loss of "progress". Very few people are saying "oh diety, if only I could preserve this animal with perfect color and texture (but discarding all other characteristics).

Greek fire: the history of when this knowledge was lost is unclear. Also it was intentionally kept secret. Certainly we have functionally similar tech now. I'll give 50% credit.

Panjagan: We don't even know if this was a weapon or a technique? Everything about this is incredibly vague.

In summary, this has happened approximately 1.5 times in the past. Not "quite often".

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9. makeitdouble ◴[] No.43494292{3}[source]
Shareholders in the 70s made a lot of money. They'll be OK to rinse and repeat that history.
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10. pca006132 ◴[] No.43494357[source]
I feel like top management and share holders don't really care about things that may happen ~30 years later. And even if they care, there are a lot more other issues that may ruin a company, e.g. the entire industry is replaced due to technological advancement.
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11. mschuster91 ◴[] No.43494384{3}[source]
There's also the still open question on how the pyramids of Egypt were built, and AFAIK NASA lost the knowledge how to build some stuff as well. And the recipe for Roman concrete was also long lost, with researchers being able to reverse-engineer what it likely was only a few years ago [1].

[1] https://news.mit.edu/2023/roman-concrete-durability-lime-cas...

12. dudefeliciano ◴[] No.43494392[source]
german automakers are experiencing this right now
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13. whizzter ◴[] No.43494486[source]
There is always retro enhusiasts of "obsolete" tech/methods, people knit despite there being cheap cotton clothes, people tinker with 50s cars despite everything.

While there is tons of money to be made for niche-enthusiasts, these niche's aren't always large enough to properly re-industrialize (chemical regulations, expensive machinery,etc).

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14. __turbobrew__ ◴[] No.43494511{3}[source]
Fogbank was a famous case where we forgot how to make it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fogbank

Similarly expertise in plutonium manufacturing has been lost, and now that countries have run out they are re-learning how they did it 40 years ago.

15. tempodox ◴[] No.43494554{4}[source]
True. And the people selling shovels for the “AI” gold rush are making boatloads of money now. But it's still up to us whether we buy their customers' products.
16. aleph_minus_one ◴[] No.43494558{3}[source]
The problem with the German automotive industry is in my opinion different: they developed cars which are not different from the kind of cars that many people in their market want.
17. cultofmetatron ◴[] No.43494591[source]
> Country A ends up turning into a bunch of managers outsourcing to Country B,

why the need to be hypothetical? this is more or less how it played out between china and america. America outsourced all manufacturing to China while doing all the R&D and "innovation." one look at companies like DJI, BYD and Bambulab and its clear that china can innovate just fine on their own now. Their products are becoming objectively better than the US designed ones.

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18. jayd16 ◴[] No.43494671[source]
What is the scenario exactly? The knowledge is proprietary and thrown away? And also the worker never wrote or used the innovation elsewhere despite it not living in a patent?
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19. treis ◴[] No.43494750[source]
I don't think that's ever really happened. If you look at GDP per worker the closest anyone has gotten to the West is Japan & South Korea at roughly 3/4 the production of France.

They can take over existing industries like autos because they do it for cheaper. They can compete in niches for innovation. But they are all capped by structural issues that will prevent them from matching the economic innovation of the west.

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20. __MatrixMan__ ◴[] No.43494847{4}[source]
That'll only work if somebody is willing to do the job for a lower price. The US may be in a different position the next time around.
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21. raducu ◴[] No.43494850[source]
> Country B realizes they can manage themselves.

That's a thing we were taught in "Civic Culture" in grade 5 -- that slaves can become masters through hard work and making the master dependent on them.

But now I see it more in a figurative way, because it rarely happens with actual slaves, but in a more metaphorical way, it certainly can happen.

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22. ferguess_k ◴[] No.43494859{3}[source]
I think GDP is a biased indicator when states are competing with each others. Industrial output makes more sense IMHO.
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23. ferguess_k ◴[] No.43494868{3}[source]
They definitely not, and there is no safe valve for it.

Can't blame them though, this is what Capitalism teaches all of us. I'm short sighted too, but the thing is I won't be able to go wherever I want when SHTF while fund managers can probably do so.

24. raducu ◴[] No.43494874{3}[source]
> china can innovate just fine on their own now.

If China could turn democratic and open, the World would have such a bright future.

Alas, I think we're headed into some distopian future because China is not going that way but indeed, they're very likely to surpass the USA in every other way.

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25. auggierose ◴[] No.43494976{3}[source]
Denzel also delivers this lesson in Gladiator 2.
26. losvedir ◴[] No.43495020{3}[source]
And Japan before that. My mom told me that many years ago "Made in Japan" had the stigma that "Made in China" has (or used to have). But growing up with Nintendo and Sega and with Hondas and Toyotas being the best, I always thought of Japan has a high tech manufacturing hub.
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27. dghlsakjg ◴[] No.43495074{3}[source]
That list doesn't seem exhaustive in the least. A modern example is Fogbank, a classified nuclear weapons material that we recently had to reverse engineer to successfully rebuild certain warheads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fogbank

Edit: I see someone beat me to the punch with Fogbank. For another example, look to the F1 rocket engine that took us to the moon. Despite having the actual engineering documents, we just don't have the manufacturing skill to rebuild one: https://apollo11space.com/why-cant-we-remake-the-rocketdyne-...

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28. trashtester ◴[] No.43495113{5}[source]
Somebody, or SOMETHING.

There will not be much work that cannot be done by Figure, Optimus, Atlas, Claude, Grok or GPT by 2035.

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29. dukeyukey ◴[] No.43495210[source]
> No one makes 35mm cameras although it would be all too easy to rehash a good 90s point and shoot model and have it sell like hotcakes

Quite a few new 35mm cameras are being developed and sold. From the budget Long Weekend, the uber-pricy Leica M6, and the mid-range Pentax 17. Even some half-frames are coming out, including from Kodak.

30. badc0ffee ◴[] No.43495245{4}[source]
This was a joke in Back to the Future - the people in 1955 associated Japan with junk, and 1985 Marty says all the best stuff comes from there.
31. generic92034 ◴[] No.43495255{4}[source]
First let's see if the USA even can keep a democratic system running.
32. thwarted ◴[] No.43495256{4}[source]
There was a reference to that in Back to the Future 3, the difference between the way Japan was viewed in the 50s compared to the 80s.

Doc: No wonder it failed, "Made in Japan"

Marty: What do you mean, doc? All the best stuff is made in Japan.

33. Aloha ◴[] No.43495291{4}[source]
There is another one where they had to recall retirees to restart Stinger Missile production.

The F1 is particularly interesting, because if we'd undergone a program in 1985, we probably could have restarted production, maybe even 1995 - but every decade another n% of the engineering knowhow sluffed off into the permanent dirt nap until there wasnt enough left.

Another recent example was when Jay Leno had a new heat exchanger made for his Chrysler Turbine car, and they were able to call some retirees in to help make a new one.

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34. ◴[] No.43495315{3}[source]
35. ozfive ◴[] No.43495355{6}[source]
We've heard this for many decades. I'm sure we will be hearing it for decades more...
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36. Apes ◴[] No.43495432{4}[source]
It feels like "Democratic and open" in the US has become "shadowy oligarchy and kleptocracy run for the benefit of whoever can control the media propaganda machine controlling the masses"
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37. __MatrixMan__ ◴[] No.43495436{7}[source]
I think we'll reach "most work done by unattended robots" around 2070. But we'd be better off if started working on post-labor-scarcity economics ASAP--might as well start learning to swim before the ship sinks. It might even be fun.
38. gaze ◴[] No.43495469{7}[source]
It doesn't really matter if they can or can't do the work. If enough execs are convinced AI can replace the workers, they will replace the workers, and management will have moved onto other things before they suffer consequences.
39. kevinsync ◴[] No.43495472[source]
I had never heard the story of Sloot Digital Coding System [0] linked from that Wikipedia entry. Truly not trying to be judgmental or negative but I was exhausted just reading the article, let alone the idea of chasing that particular albatross as my life's pursuit lol.

Really fascinating bit of trivia though!

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sloot_Digital_Coding_System

40. bayindirh ◴[] No.43495504{4}[source]
The thing is, Americans brought the idea of constant, small improvements to Japan. Japanese took the idea of kaizen and ran amok with it. Turns out kaizen is very fitting to their craftsman mindset.
41. mschuster91 ◴[] No.43495516{5}[source]
And that's why the US is constantly at war in one theatre or the other. It's incredibly expensive to keep production lines going - but it's vital because if you don't, you can't scale production up at a moment's notice.

Us Europeans learned that lesson the hard way three years ago and we haven't made much progress ever since the first Russian boot set foot on Ukrainian soil. 100k artillery shells don't sound like much of a thing... but apparently it is.

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42. kjkjadksj ◴[] No.43495579{3}[source]
Retro enthusiast solution in this case is a 3d printed can you attach to your lens and its on you to revert and grade the color in lightroom. Better hope the camera is perfectly aligned to the negative that is perfectly flat and you have a lens that can focus a flat field free of distortions. It is a far cry to the engineering that went into these pro lab scanners. Just the color science alone people struggle to replicate, resolution and sharpness throughout the frame as well, speed of handling for lab setting is second to none. People still pay a premium for these scans on these particular machines.

Kodachrome homebrew efforts don’t get close either. The process is too bespoke and reliant on instruments that no longer exist. Even proper c41 chemistry is down to just when the full kodak kit is in stock and not backordered by desperate developers: those instagram brands kit contains blix and are inferior as a result to a separate bleach and fix kit. Fuji press kit the old alternative is hard or impossible to find.

And no one is making new cameras. Only fixing old ones and only popular models able to be fixed and worth the time creating a secondary market of parts for (so basically Leica and pay for that or be relatively SOL to varying degrees for most else).

The biggest issue is this stuff was created when film was a global industry. tens of thousands of engineers were working on every step of the process for decades. That is gone now. All that old knowledge and learnings mostly gone because these companies kept poor records and destroyed old obsolete notes and material. Not just how the camera works but how to manufacture it and everything else at scale or at least in a way that it is actually profitable. And perhaps it could never become profitable without efficiencies brought on by scale and massive investment in manufacturing. And it would actually be forever be lost once all this equipment we still have falls apart.

43. swsieber ◴[] No.43495631{4}[source]
Reminds me of something I read in a sermon published oh (checks date) 24 years ago:

"More than thirty years ago I stood beside the desk of Professor Richard Rosenbloom, who taught courses in manufacturing management. In those days they called the field 'production.' I was a research assistant, and Professor Rosenbloom had just stood up to welcome one of his students into his office. The student, of medium height, was dressed in a dark suit and tie. He stood before the desk, bowed deeply, and handed to his professor a beautifully wrapped gift. He had completed his studies and was returning to his home in Japan.

"The professor murmured thanks and then, to demonstrate his appreciation, he unwrapped the gift. It was a black fountain pen with gold trim. He sat down at his desk, took out a piece of paper, filled the pen from an ink bottle, took the pen in his hand, and began to write. The student beamed. But then he looked stunned, as we all did—the pen was not writing. Professor Rosenbloom pressed harder. The student frowned more deeply. Nothing. Professor Rosenbloom tried swirling the pen. Still, no ink flowed. Finally, in exasperation, the student reached across the desk, grabbed the pen, shook it forcefully, and said with great feeling, 'Cheap Japanese pen!'"

44. sawaali ◴[] No.43495946{3}[source]
It did happen in the Muslim world. There are "slave" dynasties in many parts of that world (Egypt, India) which were robust dynasties borne out of freed slaves.
45. amiga-workbench ◴[] No.43495972[source]
There is such a thing as institutional knowledge, you build it up by retaining staff properly, training replacements and handing this knowledge down, you need continuity. Another important part of this is doing a thing often. For example, if you halt manufacturing of a widget and then want to restart manufacturing it two decades later, you are going to run into every single snag and problem found during the first iteration of the process, you're starting from scratch and you might not even be able to actually replicate the original process properly.

The effect even applies on a larger national scale, where if a country stops investing in infrastructure projects for a long period, they will find themselves incapable of executing these projects properly in the future.

46. ferguess_k ◴[] No.43497407{5}[source]
Reminds me of this one: https://americanliterature.com/author/mark-twain/short-story...
47. treis ◴[] No.43498051{4}[source]
Not really because actually making stuff isn't as valuable as engineering stuff (or other service-like activities).
48. al_borland ◴[] No.43500080{3}[source]
It's not necessarily the fault of the company. The government created the environment to make it the only way to stay competitive for a lot of companies. Some bucked the trend, and I respect them for it. There is a push to bring things back now, but it's going to be ugly. It's much better to avoid the issue in the first place like most countries, but it's too late for that.
49. Aloha ◴[] No.43517201{6}[source]
No, but it is why we keep making tanks, even though the odds of a land war needing large number of tanks is tiny.