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    Has the decline of knowledge work begun?

    (www.nytimes.com)
    388 points pseudolus | 11 comments | 25 Mar 25 17:02 UTC | HN request time: 0.701s | source | bottom
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    ferguess_k ◴[27 Mar 25 14:16 UTC] No.43493912[source]▶
    What I worry a lot more instead is how knowledge of manufacturing and engineering could be lost due to our greed.

    Typical scenario: Industry I is not doing fine in country C (i.e. the fund managers are not happy about lack of growth of the public companies in this sector) due to reasons R1, R2, ..., Rn. Then management decided to outsource and eventually dismantle the factories to "globalize" it. Knowledge retained by the older generation of engineers, technicians and workers were completely lost when they passed away.

    replies(6): >>43494035 #>>43494068 #>>43494107 #>>43494172 #>>43494174 #>>43494671 #
    1. ge96 ◴[27 Mar 25 14:28 UTC] No.43494035[source]▶
    Didn't that already happen with US to China from the 70s
    replies(2): >>43494108 #>>43494392 #
    2. tempodox ◴[27 Mar 25 14:35 UTC] No.43494108[source]▶
    Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
    replies(1): >>43494292 #
    3. makeitdouble ◴[27 Mar 25 14:52 UTC] No.43494292[source]▶
    Shareholders in the 70s made a lot of money. They'll be OK to rinse and repeat that history.
    replies(2): >>43494554 #>>43494847 #
    4. dudefeliciano ◴[27 Mar 25 15:03 UTC] No.43494392[source]▶
    german automakers are experiencing this right now
    replies(1): >>43494558 #
    5. tempodox ◴[27 Mar 25 15:18 UTC] No.43494554{3}[source]▶
    True. And the people selling shovels for the “AI” gold rush are making boatloads of money now. But it's still up to us whether we buy their customers' products.
    6. aleph_minus_one ◴[27 Mar 25 15:19 UTC] No.43494558[source]▶
    The problem with the German automotive industry is in my opinion different: they developed cars which are not different from the kind of cars that many people in their market want.
    7. __MatrixMan__ ◴[27 Mar 25 15:45 UTC] No.43494847{3}[source]▶
    That'll only work if somebody is willing to do the job for a lower price. The US may be in a different position the next time around.
    replies(1): >>43495113 #
    8. trashtester ◴[27 Mar 25 16:14 UTC] No.43495113{4}[source]▶
    Somebody, or SOMETHING.

    There will not be much work that cannot be done by Figure, Optimus, Atlas, Claude, Grok or GPT by 2035.

    replies(1): >>43495355 #
    9. ozfive ◴[27 Mar 25 16:37 UTC] No.43495355{5}[source]▶
    We've heard this for many decades. I'm sure we will be hearing it for decades more...
    replies(2): >>43495436 #>>43495469 #
    10. __MatrixMan__ ◴[27 Mar 25 16:47 UTC] No.43495436{6}[source]▶
    I think we'll reach "most work done by unattended robots" around 2070. But we'd be better off if started working on post-labor-scarcity economics ASAP--might as well start learning to swim before the ship sinks. It might even be fun.
    11. gaze ◴[27 Mar 25 16:50 UTC] No.43495469{6}[source]▶
    It doesn't really matter if they can or can't do the work. If enough execs are convinced AI can replace the workers, they will replace the workers, and management will have moved onto other things before they suffer consequences.