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577 points mooreds | 29 comments | | HN request time: 0.002s | source | bottom
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euroderf ◴[] No.42176649[source]
So what's the solution ? Assign a surveillance UAV to every Russian ship parked "without a good reason" over a cable ? It would be expensive, but doable, and create a reserve of vehicles for wartime use.
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regnull ◴[] No.42176841[source]
The solution is to project strength and hit them where they don't expect. You are dealing with a thug, not a cost/benefit accountant, as Obama seemed to mistakenly believe. As long as they do things and we respond, nothing good will happen. They have already calculated the response and found it acceptable. Instead of this, go to the mattresses. Oh, your bridge has suddenly exploded? Shame.
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petre ◴[] No.42176982[source]
"We" already screwed their pipeline, what's left? Provide Ukraine with the means to blow up the Kerch bridge maybe? They're the ones that could legitimately do that sort of escalation.
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1. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.42177070[source]
> what's left?

The other pipelines. Their shadow oil fleet. There are lots of options. But to my knowledge, only the British, French and Americans are capable of the long-range clandestine operations.

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2. petre ◴[] No.42177105[source]
Their shadow oil fleet is operated by third parties and shell companies. We are dealing with a mafia state here.

https://windward.ai/knowledge-base/illuminating-russias-shad...

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3. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.42177161[source]
> Their shadow oil fleet is operated by third parties and shell companies

Would be a shame if they started having engine troubles in the middle of the ocean.

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4. baq ◴[] No.42177182[source]
yeah just count the cases of unprovoked attacks on gazprom-related people by open windows.
5. libertine ◴[] No.42178243{3}[source]
The "problem" of Western countries is that the political sphere operates under different moral compasses: like taking down a shadow fleet tanker would be a natural disaster... taking down many would mean many disasters.

The real question is, should security and defense concerns be placed on hold? If our basic freedoms and rights are being attacked, how big of a deal would be a shadow fleet tanker catastrophe?

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6. consumer451 ◴[] No.42178626[source]
They are planning on this:

> Parliament calls for an EU crackdown on Russia’s ’shadow fleet’

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20241111IP...

7. favorited ◴[] No.42178832{4}[source]
That might carry more weight if Russia hadn't started an expansionist war to reclaim former imperial territory.
8. toomuchtodo ◴[] No.42178967{4}[source]
Those ships are going to be transiting somewhere unloaded. That is when you engage them.
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9. DiggyJohnson ◴[] No.42179408{5}[source]
That would be in the busiest shipping ports, channels, and anchorages in the entire world. Aka the most bananas place to interdict.
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10. jojobas ◴[] No.42179430{4}[source]
Western countries have intelligence services with sabotage departments and in general are not above blowing up things their leaders don't like.

If the CIA or US Navy don't have the technical means to blow up the Crimea bridge with plausible deniability they haven't been paying attention.

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11. mlyle ◴[] No.42179491{6}[source]
If something bad happened to a mostly empty Russian shadow tanker in the Gulf of Finland, that impact is going to be mostly confined to Russia. i.e. past the major Finnish and Estonian ports.

As long as we're all playing silly only-kinda-deniable games, that's an option on the table.

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12. geniusplanmate ◴[] No.42179866{3}[source]
1. They already do, because those are old, garbage ships

2. It's not exactly in the interests of NATO to have those ships start spilling tons of oil in the North Atlantic

The problem of that "shadow fleet" is precisely that those are old, uninsured vessels that cause environmental risks.

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13. geniusplanmate ◴[] No.42179918{7}[source]
That's not where that shadow fleet is operating.

The gas sold by Russia to France, Germany, etc. is transported using normal vessels, AFAIK.

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14. JumpCrisscross ◴[] No.42180097{4}[source]
> not exactly in the interests of NATO to have those ships start spilling tons of oil in the North Atlantic

Since when did engine troubles cause an oil spill?

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15. petre ◴[] No.42180123{7}[source]
Except it isn't in the Gulf of Finland but the East Sea or Soth China Sea. Most of these ships are transporting oil to China, India, Singapore, The Middle East. The only allies able to interdict most of these ships are Japan and South Korea. Japan doesn't engage in such activities after WW2 and South Korea is reluctant to because of retaliatory actions from Russia and China. Maybe they'll change course after the DPRK has sent triops into Ukraine, but don't hold your breath.
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16. petre ◴[] No.42180148{5}[source]
Thry do but it only benefits Ukraine. So they're the ones who should blow it up, preferably with with weapons of their own in order to avoid NATO escalation. Just lke the Moskva sinking.
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17. aziaziazi ◴[] No.42180339{5}[source]
In case of an engine failure, it’s way more easier to tug the boat empty than full.
18. onionisafruit ◴[] No.42180371{5}[source]
Ever blown a head gasket?
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19. gnabgib ◴[] No.42180394{6}[source]
Bit of a personal question
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20. mlyle ◴[] No.42180531{8}[source]
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/30/7477500/

Plenty of targets in the Gulf of Finland.

21. mlyle ◴[] No.42180532{8}[source]
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/09/30/7477500/

Plenty of targets in the Gulf of Finland.

22. lottin ◴[] No.42180585{6}[source]
How does destroying the Crimea bridge not benefit the West? They destroy our infrastructure, we destroy theirs. That's the whole idea.
23. wbl ◴[] No.42180589[source]
They sink just the same.
24. wbl ◴[] No.42180602{8}[source]
What exactly do you think we spend all that money on fast attack subs and frigates and destroyers for? Of course the US Navy (and the French and British) can interdict those ships anywhere on the high seas.
25. jojobas ◴[] No.42182391{6}[source]
If Russian leadership doesn't change there's just no chance it will stop at Ukraine. Next those sharing your sentiment will say "it only benefits Poland".
26. instig007 ◴[] No.42182773{5}[source]
since the times ocean waves decided to wreck ships that can't turn and navigate in storms without their prime mover.
27. dgfitz ◴[] No.42184919{7}[source]
Oh, its not. Why do you think that?
28. mrguyorama ◴[] No.42188001{5}[source]
The problem is we (The US) used to swing our """nation building"""/Imperialism dick all around, coup'ing and invading whoever we want, but after Vietnam and wasting trillions bombing sand for 20 years, a lot of us have softened on the idea of forcing our desires through explosions.

Add to that a natural conservative tendency in the US to jump at isolationism whenever there's an easy excuse (the guy you like is doing the "bad thing" so you don't actually want to stop him, the war is literally somewhere else and doesn't exactly involve us)

So it's hard for people like me, who used to be pretty pacifist, to decide that yeah maybe violence is the right option sometimes?

Also, the entire time we are trying to shake off bullshit "Democrats are warhawks" nonsense from the party that did the desert bombing just because Bush wanted to defend his daddy's memory. The same people who call the Dems warhawks spent the 2000s screaming that "you're either with us or against us" and calling anti-war people pussies so I guess they don't have very good memories.

So for various reasons, some good, the US is extremely gunshy right now. Even those of us wholeheartedly in support of Ukraine, wishing we gave them a thousand Bradleys and tanks, feel uncomfortable with the idea of boots on the ground. Meanwhile Europe has forgotten what intervention is, and seems utterly unwilling to do anything, lest they have to get off their holier than thou pedestal.

Appeasement definitely doesn't work, but the middle east is full of examples of "just bomb them all" also not working very well. Everyone is very nervous. It sure seems like Russia won't stop their horseshit until someone makes them stop, but that's going to require a million dead.

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29. ◴[] No.42191837{6}[source]