I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.
For example, in this article it says it can't do coding exercises outside the training set. That would definitely be on the "AGI checklist". Basically doing anything that is outside of the training set would be on that list.
Depends on how you define “self awareness” but knowing that it doesn't know something instead of hallucinating a plausible-but-wrong is already self awareness of some kind. And it's both highly valuable and beyond current tech's capability.
https://openai.com/index/introducing-simpleqa/
especially this section Using SimpleQA to measure the calibration of large language models
A crucial element of AGI would be the ability to self-train on self-generated data, online. So it's not really AGI if there is a hard distinction between training and inference (though it may still be very capable), and it's not really AGI if it can't work its way through novel problems on its own.
The ability to immediately solve a problem it's never seen before is too high a bar, I think.
And yes, my definition still excludes a lot of humans in a lot of fields. That's a bullet I'm willing to bite.
I will get excited for/scared of LLMs when they can tackle this kind of problem. But I don't believe they can because of the fundamental nature of their design, which is both backward looking (thus not better than the human state of the art) and lacks human intuition and self awareness. Or perhaps rather I believe that the prompt that would be required to get an LLM to produce such a program is a problem of at least equivalent complexity to implementing the program without an LLM.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/chinese-room/
Yet, one common assumption of many people running these companies or investing in them, or of some developers investing their time in these technologies, is precisely that some sort of explosion of superintelligence is likely, or even inevitable.
It surely is possible, but stretching that to likely seems a bit much if you really think how imperfectly we understand things like consciousness and the mind.
Of course there are people who have essentially religious reactions to the notion that there may be limits to certain domains of knowledge. Nonetheless, I think that's the reality we're faced with here.
(That’s not to say that humans don’t tend to lose some of their flexibility over their individual lifetimes as well.)
That’s possible for a highly intelligent, extensively trained, very small subset of humans.
I think Searle's view was that:
- while it cannot be dis-_proven_, the Chinese Room argument was meant to provide reasons against believing it
- the "it can't be proven until it happens" part is misunderstanding: you won't know if it happens because the objective, externally available attributes don't indicate whether self-awareness (or indeed awareness at all) is present
That's not true. Humans can learn.
An LLM is just a tool. If it can't do what you want then too bad.
That also ignores the fact that the small set of humans capable of building programming languages and compilers is a consequence of specialization and lack of interest. There are plenty of humans that are capable of learning how to do it. LLMs, on the other hand, are both specialized for the task and aren't lazy or uninterested.
> while it cannot be dis-_proven_, the Chinese Room argument was meant to provide reasons against believing it
Yes, like Russell's teapot. I also think that's what Searle means.
> the "it can't be proven until it happens" part is misunderstanding: you won't know if it happens because the objective, externally available attributes don't indicate whether self-awareness (or indeed awareness at all) is present
Yes, agreed, I believe that's what Searle is saying too. I think I was maybe being ambiguous here - I wanted to say that even if you forgave the AI maximalists for ignoring all relevant philosophical work, the notion that "appearing human-like" inevitably tends to what would actually be "consciousness" or "intelligence" is more than a big claim.
Searle goes further, and I'm not sure if I follow him all the way, personally, but it's a side point.
Things like drive a car, fold laundry, run an errand, do some basic math.
You'll notice that two of those require some form of robot or mobility. I think that is key -- you can't have AGI without the ability to interact with the world in a way similar to most humans.
I've personally had some mild success getting these UTM variants to output their own children in a meta programming arrangement. The base program only has access to the valid instruction set of ~12 instructions per byte, while the task program has access to the full range of instructions and data per byte (256). By only training the base program, we reduce the search space by a very substantial factor. I think this would be similar to the idea of a self-hosted compiler, etc. I don't think there would be too much of a stretch to give it access to x86 instructions and a full VM once a certain amount of bootstrapping has been achieved.
[0]: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.19108
I'm wondering wether it would count, if one would extend it with an external program, that gives it feedback during inference (by another prompt) about the correctness of it's output.
I guess it wouldn't, because these RAG tools kind of do that and i heard no one calling those self aware.
The lifetime is the context window, the model/training is the DNA. A human in the moment isn't general intelligent, but a human over his lifetime is, the first is so much easier to try to replicate though but that is a bad target since humans aren't born like that.
If you have an external program, then by defining it's not self-awareness ;). Also, it's not about correctness per se, but about the model's ability to assess its own knowledge (making a mistake because the model was exposed to mistakes in the training data is fine, hallucinating isn't).
There, you don't need to invoke Turing or compiler bootstrapping. You just need one example of a use case where the accuracy of responses is mission critical
https://chatgpt.com/share/67373737-04a8-800d-bc57-de74a415e2...
I think the parent comment's challenge is more appropriate.
Oh, you just asked it to make a trivia app that feeds on JSON. Cute, but that's not what I meant. The web is full of tutorials for basic stuff like that.
To be clear I meant that LLMs can't write trivia questions and answers, thus proving that they can't produce trustworthy outputs.
And a trivia app is a toy (one might even say... a trivial example), but it's a useful demonstration of why you wouldn't put an LLM into a system on which lives depend on, let alone invest billions on it.
If you don't trust my words just go back to fiddling with your models and ask them to write a trivia quiz about a topic that you know very well. Like a TV show.