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410 points jjulius | 15 comments | | HN request time: 1.984s | source | bottom
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UltraSane ◴[] No.41885410[source]
I'm astonished at how long Musk has been able to keep his autonomous driving con going. He has been lying about it to inflate Tesla shares for 10 years now.
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1. UltraSane ◴[] No.41885483[source]
It "works" if you mean often does incredibly stupid and dangerous things and requires a person to be ready to take over for it at any moment to prevent a crash. So far no Tesla car has ever legally driven even a single mile without a person in the driver's seat.
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2. two_handfuls ◴[] No.41885608[source]
I tried it. It drives worse than a teenager.

There is absolutely no way this can safely drive a car without supervision.

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3. peutetre ◴[] No.41885611[source]
Musk believes Tesla without FSD is "worth basically zero": https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-worth-basica...

Musk is now moving the FSD work to xAI, taking what supposedly makes the public company Tesla valuable and placing it into his private ownership: https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-xai-partnership-elon-musk-30e...

Seems like a good way to privatize shareholder capital.

4. valval ◴[] No.41886215[source]
It’s been safer than a human driver for years. It’s also not meant to be unsupervised.
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5. gitaarik ◴[] No.41888839{3}[source]
Something about these two statements seem to be in conflict with each other, but maybe that is just kinda Tesla PR talk.
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6. lawn ◴[] No.41889379{3}[source]
Safer than a human driver...

According to Tesla.

7. valval ◴[] No.41889902{4}[source]
It’s quite easy to be safer than a human driver, since humans are just human. Supervision is required because the system can face edge cases.
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8. gitaarik ◴[] No.41889941{5}[source]
Ah ok so if humans would be supervised for their edge cases then humans would actually be safer!
9. jjmarr ◴[] No.41890122[source]
And? How does that make Elon Musk a con artist?

It's possible to physically get in a Tesla and have it drive you from point A to point B. That's a self-driving car. You're saying it's unreliable, makes mistakes, and can be used illegally. That doesn't mean the car can't drive itself, just that it doesn't do a very good job at "self-driving"

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10. UltraSane ◴[] No.41891382{3}[source]
"How does that make Elon Musk a con artist?"

Because since 2014 he has made wildly unrealistic claims that he is smart enough to know were BS.

December 2015: “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.”

January 2016 In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY

June 2016: “I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans.”

October 2016 By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, a home in L.A., to Times Square ... without the need for a single touch, including the charging.

"A 2016 video that Tesla used to promote its self-driving technology was staged to show capabilities like stopping at a red light and accelerating at a green light that the system did not have, according to testimony by a senior engineer."

January 2017 The sensor hardware and compute power required for at least level 4 to level 5 autonomy has been in every Tesla produced since October of last year.

March 2017: “I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a Tesla] in about two years.”

May 2017 Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo? - Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this.

March 2018 I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200% safer than a person.

February 2019 We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year

April 2019 We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window sometime probably around the second quarter of next year.

May 2019 We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able to do it too

December 2020 I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five next year, extremely confident, 100%

January 2021 FSD will be capable of Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021

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11. UltraSane ◴[] No.41891387{4}[source]
It is cultish doublespeak.
12. UltraSane ◴[] No.41891391{5}[source]
Edge cases like intersections?
13. two_handfuls ◴[] No.41891531{3}[source]
"safer than a human driver for years" can be misleading, since the system is supervised - it assists the human driver. So what we're comparing is human+FSD vs avg car (with whatever driver assist it has).

The claim that FSD+human is safer than an average car is old and has since been debunked: if instead of comparing vs all cars (old and new, with and without driver assistance) you compare like for like: other cars of similar price also with cruise control and lanekeeping assistance, then the Tesla cars are as safe as the others.

And to be clear, none of those are autonomous. There is a certification process for autonomous cars, followed by Waymo Mercedes and others. Tesla has not even started this process.

14. jjmarr ◴[] No.41892800{4}[source]
Do you have any citations? I would like to read them.
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15. UltraSane ◴[] No.41893033{5}[source]
https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/