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321 points jhunter1016 | 34 comments | | HN request time: 0.332s | source | bottom
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cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41882321[source]
I'm betting against OpenAI. Sam Altman has proven himself and his company untrustworthy. In long running games, untrustworthy players lose out.

If you disagree, I would argue you have a very sad view of the world, where truth and cooperation are inferior to lies and manipulation.

replies(17): >>41882351 #>>41882366 #>>41882502 #>>41882707 #>>41882720 #>>41882775 #>>41882946 #>>41883233 #>>41883261 #>>41883435 #>>41883475 #>>41883560 #>>41883612 #>>41883665 #>>41883825 #>>41883868 #>>41884385 #
1. greenthrow ◴[] No.41882351[source]
Elon Musk alone disproves your theory. I wish I agreed with you, I'm sure I'd be happier. But there's just too many successful sociopaths. Hell there was a popular book about it.
replies(4): >>41882364 #>>41882369 #>>41882394 #>>41882414 #
2. npinsker ◴[] No.41882364[source]
Sociopathy isn’t the same thing as duplicity.
replies(1): >>41884100 #
3. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41882369[source]
Musk kicks butt and is taking us to space. He proves my theory.
replies(4): >>41882443 #>>41883281 #>>41883297 #>>41884128 #
4. paulryanrogers ◴[] No.41882394[source]
Still depends on the definition of success. Money and companies with high stock prices? Healthy family relationships and rich circle of diverse friends?
replies(1): >>41882409 #
5. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41882409[source]
I would argue this is not subjective. "Healthy family relationships and rich circle of diverse friends" is an objectively better definition than "Money and companies with high stock prices".

I await with arms crossed all the lost souls arguing it's subjective.

replies(2): >>41882768 #>>41883700 #
6. 015a ◴[] No.41882414[source]
You should really read the OP's theory as: clearly untrustworthy people lose out. Trustworthy people, and unclearly untrustworthy people, win.

OAI's problem isn't that Sam is untrustworthy; he's just too obviously untrustworthy.

replies(1): >>41882451 #
7. ◴[] No.41882443[source]
8. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41882451[source]
Yes correct. And hopefully untrustworthy people become clearly untrustworthy people eventually.

Elon is not "untrustworthy" because of some ambitious deadlines or some stupid statements. He's plucking rockets out of the air and doing it super cheap whereas all competitors are lining their pockets with taxpayer money.

You add in everything else (free speech, speaking his mind at great personal risk, tesla), he reads as basically trustworthy to me.

When he says he's going to do something and he explains why, I basically believe him, knowing deadlines are ambitious.

replies(3): >>41882979 #>>41883156 #>>41884076 #
9. genrilz ◴[] No.41882768{3}[source]
While I personally also consider my relationships to be more important than my earnings, I am still going to argue that it's subjective. Case in point, both you and I disagree with Altman about what success means. We are all human beings, and I don't see any objective way to argue one definition is better than another.

In case you are going to make an argument about how happiness or some related factor objectively determines success, let me head that off. Altman thinks that power rather than happiness determines success, and is also a human being. Why objectively is his opinion wrong and yours right? Both of your definitions just look like people's opinions to me.

replies(1): >>41883055 #
10. hobs ◴[] No.41882979{3}[source]
There's so many demos where Elon has faked and lied its very surprising to have him read as "basically trustworthy" even if he has done other stuff - have dancing people as robots with fake robot demos, the fake solar roof, fake full self driving, really fake promises about cyber taxis and teslas paying for themselves (like 7 years ago?).

The free speech part also reads completely hollow when the guy's first actions were to ban his critics on the platform and bring back self avowed nazis - you could argue one of those things are in favor of free speech, but generally doing both just implies you are into the nazi stuff.

replies(2): >>41883102 #>>41890258 #
11. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41883055{4}[source]
Arms crossed

Was not going to argue happiness at all. In fact, happiness seems a very hedonistic and selfish way to measure it too.

My position is more mother goose-like. We simply have basic morals that we teach children but don't apply to ourselves. Be honest. Be generous. Be fair. Be strong. Don't be greedy. Be humble.

That these are objectively moral is unprovable but true.

It's religious and stoic in nature.

It's anathema to HN, I know.

replies(1): >>41884771 #
12. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41883102{4}[source]
Would you trust Elon or ULA to take you to the ISS? Even though ULA has tweeted pretty much no falsehoods (that I know of)

You're complaining about tweets and meanwhile he's saving astronauts and getting us to the moon. Wake up man.

replies(1): >>41883856 #
13. i80and ◴[] No.41883156{3}[source]
"Free speech" is kind of a weird thing to ascribe to Musk, given that it's a perfect almost archetypical example of where he says one thing and actually does the exact opposite.
replies(1): >>41883212 #
14. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41883212{4}[source]
I challenge you to post a taboo opinion on other platforms vs X and let us know the results.
15. ben_w ◴[] No.41883281[source]
Space Musk, Tesla Musk, and Everything Else Musk, act as though they're three different people.

Space Musk promises a lot, has a grand vision, and gets stuff delivered. The price may be higher than he says and delivered later, but it's orders of magnitude better than the competition.

Tesla Musk makes and sells cars. They're ok. Not bad, not amazing, glad they precipitated the EV market, but way too pricey now that it's getting mature. Still, the showmanship is still useful for the brand.

Everything Else Musk could genuinely be improved by replacing him with an LLM: it would be just as overconfident and wrong, but cost less to get there.

replies(1): >>41883400 #
16. sgdfhijfgsdfgds ◴[] No.41883297[source]
Ehhh though he does seem to think that taking the USA to fascism is a prerequisite.

(This is, I think, an apolitical observation: whatever you think about Trump, he is arguing for a pretty major restructuring of political power in a manner that is identifiable in fascism. And Musk is, pretty unarguably, bankrolling this.)

replies(1): >>41883738 #
17. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41883400{3}[source]
I don't think what you're saying is true, but even if it's true, it means Elon is doing a great service solely via Space Musk.
replies(1): >>41883502 #
18. ben_w ◴[] No.41883502{4}[source]
Unfortunately for those of us who like space (the idea of being an early Martian seller is appealing to me), Everything Else Musk is hurting the reputation of the other two. Not enough to totally prevent success, but enough to be concerned about investments.
19. chasd00 ◴[] No.41883700{3}[source]
Success is defined only in the eye of the beholder. Maybe money is the what someone else defines as success and therefore that’s what they strive for. “We don’t all match to the beat of just one drum, what might be right for you may not be right for some” - I think that was in the theme song to the old sitcom The Facts of Life.
replies(1): >>41885265 #
20. chasd00 ◴[] No.41883738{3}[source]
Both political parties in the US have adopted a “you’re either with us or you’re the enemy” position.
replies(1): >>41883786 #
21. sgdfhijfgsdfgds ◴[] No.41883786{4}[source]
1) not really, only one of them talks about opponents as enemies

2) the leader of only one of them is threatening to lock up journalists, shut down broadcasters, and use the military against his enemies.

3) only one of them led an attempted autogolpe that was condemned at the time by all sides

4) Musk is only backing the one described in 1, 2 and 3 above.

It's not really arguable, all this stuff.

The guy who thinks the USA should go to Mars clearly thinks he's better throwing in his lot with the whiny strongman dude who is on record -- via his own social media platform -- as saying that the giant imaginary fraud he projected to explain his humiliating loss was a reason to terminate the Constitution.

And he's putting a lot of money into it, and co-running the ground game. But sure, he wants to go to Mars. So it's all good.

22. hobs ◴[] No.41883856{5}[source]
No, I am complaining about in person appearances in front of audiences where he knowingly lied, moving the goalposts doesn't make him honest, just more trustworthy to complete something than {insert incompetent people here}.

Having the general ability to accomplish something doesn't magically infer integrity, you doing what you say does. Misleading and dissembling about doing what you say you will do is where you get the untrustworthy label, regardless of your personal animus or positive view of Musk.

23. greenthrow ◴[] No.41884076{3}[source]
That's an interesting way to characterize Elon's history. "Ambitious deadlines" implies you are believe he will one day deliver on the many, many claims he's made that have never happened.

SpaceX and Tesla have both accomplished great things. There's a lot of talented people that work there. Elon doesn'r deserve all the credit for all their hard work.

24. greenthrow ◴[] No.41884100[source]
Of course. I never said they were. But sociopaths do tend to be very comfortable lying and backstabbing.
25. greenthrow ◴[] No.41884128[source]
Your crediting the work of thousands of talented people to him while similtaneously dismissing the lies that are solely his is very weird to me. Especially for someone saying trustworthiness in CEOs is so important. (I am not a Sam Altman fan either, so don't read me as defending him.)
26. genrilz ◴[] No.41884771{5}[source]
Sorry about the delay. I got sidetracked.

That... is actually a pretty interesting argument. I have to admit that if an objective morality existed floating in the Aether, there would be no way to logically prove or disprove that one's beliefs matched it.

Since I can't argue it logically, let me make an emotional appeal by explaining how my beliefs are tied to my life:

I chose to be a utilitarian when I was 12 or so, though I didn't know it had that name yet. The reason I chose this is that I wanted my beliefs to be consistent and kind. Utilitarianism has only one basic rule, so it can't really conflict with itself. Kindness wise, you can technically weigh others however you like, but I think most utilitarians just assume that all people have equal worth.

This choice means that I doubted that my emotions captured any truth about morality. Over the years, my emotions did further effect my beliefs. For instance, I tweaked the rules to avoid "Tyranny of the Majority" type things. However, my beliefs also changed my emotions. One fruit of this is that I started to mediate conflicts more often instead of choosing a side. Sometimes it does make more sense to choose a side, but often people will all behave well if you just hear them out. Another fruit of these beliefs is that rather than thinking of things in terms of "good" or "bad", I now tend to compare states of the world as being better or worse than each other. This means that no matter how little capacity I have, I can still get myself to make things a little better for others.

All this to say, I feel like deciding to doubt my own feelings very much did what young me wanted it to do. I wouldn't be able to grow as a person if I thought I was right in the beginning.

I'd be interested to hear how you came to your beliefs. Given how firmly you've argued in this thread, it sounds like you probably have a story behind your beliefs too.

replies(1): >>41886733 #
27. paulryanrogers ◴[] No.41885265{4}[source]
So then Elon isn't much of a counterpoint, except in the eyes of folks who define winning as having lots of money and being CEO of rich/powerful companies.
28. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41886733{6}[source]
First on the utilitarian front: it's obvious how most utilitarians would act if it were their mom on one side of the track, utils be damned.

I dunno if you have kids, but for me, main thing is having kids. It does a lot of things to your psyche, both suddenly and over a long period of time.

It's the first time you would truly take a bullet for someone, no questions asked. It tells you how much you know on an instinctual level. It forces you to define what behavior you will punish vs what you will reward. It expands your time horizons- suddenly I care very much how the world will be after I'm gone. It makes you read more mother goose books too. They all say the same things, even in different languages. It's actually crazy we debate morals at all.

replies(1): >>41887555 #
29. genrilz ◴[] No.41887555{7}[source]
On the utilitarian front, I would prioritize my mother, but it would be because I care about her, not because I would be acting morally. I accept that I can't ever be a perfect utilitarian. Perfect is the enemy of good though.

I don't have kids, it does make a lot of sense that that would affect a person's psyche. The bit about having to define what behavior is good or bad seems to me like you are working out your beliefs through others, which seems like a reasonable way to do things since you get to have an outside perspective on the effects of what you are internalizing.

About debating morality though. That's exactly where principles become needed. It's great to say that we should be kind, but who are we kind to? It can't always be everyone at the same time. To bring things back to the trolley problem, I may save my mom, but it really is super unfair to the 20 people on the other track. This sort of thing is exactly why people consider nepotism to be wrong

replies(1): >>41888084 #
30. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41888084{8}[source]
I would say it's crazy to debate the broad strokes of morality. The mother goose like stuff. Remember we started this discussion by saying:

""Healthy family relationships and rich circle of diverse friends" is an objectively better definition than "Money and companies with high stock prices""

Pretty broad principles we're comparing there.

When you get into specific cases, that's where you really need the debate and often there's no right answer, depending on the case. This is why we want judges who have a strong moral compass.

These values are bundled up in a person and they should even counterbalance each other. "Be Kind" should be balanced with "Be Strong". "Be Generous" should be balanced with "Be thrifty" and so on. The combination of these things is what we mean when we say someone has a moral compass.

I would argue it's immoral in some sense to sacrifice your mother for 5 other strangers. But these are fantasy cases that almost never happen.

A more realistic scenario is self defense or war.

replies(1): >>41888159 #
31. genrilz ◴[] No.41888159{9}[source]
Aren't the broad principles how we make the finer grained judgements in a fair and consistent manner though? Judges are at least supposed to use the outcomes of previous cases and the letter of the law to do this. The rest of us need something concrete too if we want to be consistent. I think that's worth arguing over.
replies(1): >>41899455 #
32. lenkite ◴[] No.41890258{4}[source]
When did Elon ban any of his critics permanently from Twitter ? The most famous I remember was Kathy Griffin for impersonation, but she was brought back after the "parody" label was added. And that was done to multiple parody accounts not just hers.
33. cynicalpeace ◴[] No.41899455{10}[source]
If something is arguable, it's not concrete. We have concrete moral systems. That's why we teach it to our kids. Don't lie. Be fair. Be strong. Avoid violence. Defend the weak. Try your hardest. Don't be lazy. Etc.

None of these things are arguable in the abstract. When you're confronted with a case where you sacrifice one, it's always for the sake of another.

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34. genrilz ◴[] No.41904663{11}[source]
I think we are speaking past each other here. I'm talking in consequentialist terms and you are (I think, feel free to correct me if I am wrong) talking in virtue ethics terms.

I'm assuming you aren't familiar with these terms and so am defining them. Forgive me if you already were familiar.

Consequentialists think that the purpose of morality is to prevent "bad" consequences from happening. From a consequentialist perspective, one can very much argue about what makes a consequence "bad", and it makes a lot of sense to do so if we are trying to improve the human condition. Furthermore, I think consequentialists tend to care more about making their systems consistent, mainly so they are fair. As a side effect though, no principles have to be sacrificed when making a concrete decision, since none of them conflict. (That's what it means for a system to be consistent)

Virtue ethicists think that the purpose of morality is to be a "good" person. I think you are correct that it's pretty hard to define what a "good" person is. There are also many different types of "good" people. Even if you had such a person with consistent principles, if you try and stuff everyones "good" principles into them, they would become inconsistent. It's hard for me to tell exactly what the point of being "good" is supposed to be if it is not connected to the consequences of one's actions, in which case one would just be a consequentialist, However, if the point was to improve the human condition, then I think it would take a lot of different types of "good" people, so it doesn't try and make sense to argue our way into choosing one of them.

This isn't really an argument for a position as much as me trying to figure out where we disagree. Does that all sound correct to you?