Microsoft and OpenAI's close partnership shows signs of fraying

I'm betting against OpenAI. Sam Altman has proven himself and his company untrustworthy. In long running games, untrustworthy players lose out.

If you disagree, I would argue you have a very sad view of the world, where truth and cooperation are inferior to lies and manipulation.

Elon Musk alone disproves your theory. I wish I agreed with you, I'm sure I'd be happier. But there's just too many successful sociopaths. Hell there was a popular book about it.

You should really read the OP's theory as: clearly untrustworthy people lose out. Trustworthy people, and unclearly untrustworthy people, win.

OAI's problem isn't that Sam is untrustworthy; he's just too obviously untrustworthy.

Yes correct. And hopefully untrustworthy people become clearly untrustworthy people eventually.

Elon is not "untrustworthy" because of some ambitious deadlines or some stupid statements. He's plucking rockets out of the air and doing it super cheap whereas all competitors are lining their pockets with taxpayer money.

You add in everything else (free speech, speaking his mind at great personal risk, tesla), he reads as basically trustworthy to me.

When he says he's going to do something and he explains why, I basically believe him, knowing deadlines are ambitious.

There's so many demos where Elon has faked and lied its very surprising to have him read as "basically trustworthy" even if he has done other stuff - have dancing people as robots with fake robot demos, the fake solar roof, fake full self driving, really fake promises about cyber taxis and teslas paying for themselves (like 7 years ago?).

The free speech part also reads completely hollow when the guy's first actions were to ban his critics on the platform and bring back self avowed nazis - you could argue one of those things are in favor of free speech, but generally doing both just implies you are into the nazi stuff.