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258 points polyrand | 20 comments | | HN request time: 0.629s | source | bottom
1. aabhay ◴[] No.34490445[source]
In enterprise, it’s often the case that your biggest customer effectively owns you. They get to dictate roadmaps, you’re forced to spin up a special team just for them, and it becomes harder to justify your investment into long tail customers because this big golden monkey is on your back.
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2. ketzo ◴[] No.34491293[source]
I worked briefly at FedEx corporate, and they made a big deal about their policy that a customer could never account for more than 30% of total volume.

Leadership often made it clear that Amazon was right at that limit, and wanted to send a lot more volume, but FedEx wouldn't let them, in order to maintain "independence."

To your point: it didn’t stop them from working to cater to Amazon’s every whim, and it did provide Amazon the incentive to build a (better and more cost-effective) fulfillment and shipping network themselves.

I don’t know what the “right” play was, and obviously the story is far from over. But FedEx always seemed to me like they chose the worst of both worlds.

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3. throwawaysleep ◴[] No.34491532[source]
The long tail also requires support and that doesn't scale well. At one of my jobs, the rule is basically that any company under around 5K-10K ARR (it is arbitrary) doesn't get any real support and just gets strung along until they quit, as giving any developer time to their issues makes them unprofitable.
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4. mritchie712 ◴[] No.34491541[source]
What % of FedEx revenue was from Amazon? Would have guessed it'd be much less than 30%.
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5. bilbo0s ◴[] No.34491671[source]
There's just a lot of harsh facts about business out here in the real world. One of those facts is that some customers are just more trouble than they're worth. And "trouble" can be cost, or PR blowback, or your largest investor just doesn't trust the guy. Whatever it is, it's a reality you probably have to accept and deal with.
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6. ketzo ◴[] No.34491717{3}[source]
I wasn't high-up enough to have that kind of number, sadly :D

It's an interesting question, though -- I'm sure Amazon had a very favorable contract, so to your point, probably less than 30%.

7. snird ◴[] No.34491913[source]
If managed well, you can ride this "golden monkey" to heaven. So is the case of TSMC with Apple.
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8. ◴[] No.34492046{3}[source]
9. ◴[] No.34492072[source]
10. ketzo ◴[] No.34492087[source]
To expand on this great example a little: TSMC is a really smart case, because the chip business is all about extraordinarily high up-front development costs and near-zero marginal costs.

TSMC uses Apple as their first-and-best customer for their bleeding edge chips, using fat stacks of iPhone cash to push the limits of semiconductor technology.

Then they can keep selling chips built on that process for a decade or more (to a very long tail of other customers).

Nobody would say that TSMC isn't dependent on Apple! They're certainly tied very tightly. But they've turned that dependency into just the top of a very profitable funnel.

11. ajb ◴[] No.34492131[source]
TSMC has many customers. If they lost Apple (and I don't see how) they could have to make some hard decisions but they would still be the world's top fab.
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12. ketzo ◴[] No.34492168{3}[source]
Yeah, but that's looking at them today, as the definitive #1 fab in the world.

The path they took to get here was all about doubling down on Apple.

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13. Laremere ◴[] No.34492253[source]
Amazon was likely to build out their own shipping network anyways. Their MO in all other spaces is to observe others doing it, then undercut by vertically integrating.

Over expanding to fullfil a single large customer who isn't actually reliant on you is a good way to end up bankrupt. Seems like FedEx made the right move here.

14. scottyah ◴[] No.34492426{3}[source]
In 2018 (latest I could find with a quick search), it was 1.3%. FedEx said that no customer is more than 3% of their revenues.
replies(2): >>34492899 #>>34498260 #
15. ketzo ◴[] No.34492899{4}[source]
Wow, that's a lot lower than I would have thought. I wonder if my memory is wrong? The "30% of volume" stat stands out in my head, though.
16. JCharante ◴[] No.34493079[source]
I can see how this makes sense, but at my job with thousands of devs each team has the independence to choose their own tech stack/tooling and what ends up happening is if 1 team finds a product they really like then it slowly starts to spread across the organization. Seems bad to ignore a team when they're trying out a new product.
17. michaelt ◴[] No.34494194[source]
> it’s often the case that your biggest customer effectively owns you

I read an article back in ~2006 that made a similar point [1]

If you're a lawnmower manufacturer and Wal-Mart comes to you and says they want to make you their main supplier of lawnmowers and they need X units per year (which will double your sales) that sounds like a great deal which will really grow your business - right?

But once you've built a second factory to deal with all this extra sales volume and hired a bunch of extra workers, if Wal-Mart decide that $250-retail-price lawnmower is going to cost them $20 less next year you can't walk away, because you've got to pay the loans you took out to build this new factory.

[1] https://www.fastcompany.com/54763/man-who-said-no-wal-mart

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18. acdha ◴[] No.34494241[source]
Here's an even older one about the Wal-Mart effect:

https://www.fastcompany.com/47593/wal-mart-you-dont-know

> The gallon jar reshaped Vlasic’s pickle business: It chewed up the profit margin of the business with Wal-Mart, and of pickles generally. Procurement had to scramble to find enough pickles to fill the gallons, but the volume gave Vlasic strong sales numbers, strong growth numbers, and a powerful place in the world of pickles at Wal-Mart. Which accounted for 30% of Vlasic’s business. But the company’s profits from pickles had shriveled 25% or more, Young says–millions of dollars.

> The gallon was hoisting Vlasic and hurting it at the same time.

> Young remembers begging Wal-Mart for relief. “They said, ‘No way,’ ” says Young. “We said we’ll increase the price”–even $3.49 would have helped tremendously–“and they said, ‘If you do that, all the other products of yours we buy, we’ll stop buying.’ It was a clear threat.” Hunn recalls things a little differently, if just as ominously: “They said, ‘We want the $2.97 gallon of pickles. If you don’t do it, we’ll see if someone else might.’ I knew our competitors were saying to Wal-Mart, ‘We’ll do the $2.97 gallons if you give us your other business.’ ” Wal-Mart’s business was so indispensable to Vlasic, and the gallon so central to the Wal-Mart relationship, that decisions about the future of the gallon were made at the CEO level.

> Finally, Wal-Mart let Vlasic up for air. “The Wal-Mart guy’s response was classic,” Young recalls. “He said, ‘Well, we’ve done to pickles what we did to orange juice. We’ve killed it. We can back off.’ ” Vlasic got to take it down to just over half a gallon of pickles, for $2.79. Not long after that, in January 2001, Vlasic filed for bankruptcy–although the gallon jar of pickles, everyone agrees, wasn’t a critical factor.

19. BonoboIO ◴[] No.34498260{4}[source]
Maybe they count each Amazon sub company as one customer.
20. ajb ◴[] No.34506514{4}[source]
They were #1 when the ipod came out. At that point UMC were AMD to their Intel. They have been dominant in the fab business for longer than the iphone existed.