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Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

(karpathy.bearblog.dev)
615 points __rito__ | 3 comments | 10 Dec 25 17:23 UTC | HN request time: 0.404s | source

Related from yesterday: Show HN: Gemini Pro 3 imagines the HN front page 10 years from now - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46205632
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Tossrock ◴[11 Dec 25 05:15 UTC] No.46227925[source]▶
So where do I collect my prize for this 2015 comment? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9882217
replies(1): >>46228093 #
johncolanduoni ◴[11 Dec 25 05:46 UTC] No.46228093[source]▶
Never call a man happy until he is dead. Also I don’t think your argument generalizes well - there are plenty of private research investment bubbles that have popped and not reached their original peaks (e.g. VR).
replies(1): >>46228296 #
1. Tossrock ◴[11 Dec 25 06:28 UTC] No.46228296[source]▶
It wasn't a generalized argument, though, it was a specific one, about AI.
replies(2): >>46229046 #>>46235664 #
2. johncolanduoni ◴[11 Dec 25 08:44 UTC] No.46229046[source]▶
Okay, but the only part that’s specific to AI (that the companies investing the money are capturing more value than they’re putting into it) is now false. Even the hyperscalers are not capturing nearly the value they’re investing, though they’re not using debt to finance it. OpenAI and Anthropic are of course blowing through cash like it’s going out of style, and if investor interest drops drastically they’ll likely need to look to get acquired.
3. xpe ◴[11 Dec 25 19:06 UTC] No.46235664[source]▶
Here is one sentence from the referenced prediction:

> I don't think there will be any more AI winters.

This isn't enough to qualify as a testable prediction, in the eyes of people that care about such things, because there is no good way to formulate a resolution criteria for a claim that extends indefinitely into the future. See [1] for a great introduction.

[1]: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq