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Auto-grading decade-old Hacker News discussions with hindsight

(karpathy.bearblog.dev)
615 points __rito__ | 1 comments | 10 Dec 25 17:23 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source

Related from yesterday: Show HN: Gemini Pro 3 imagines the HN front page 10 years from now - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46205632
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Tossrock ◴[11 Dec 25 05:15 UTC] No.46227925[source]▶
So where do I collect my prize for this 2015 comment? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9882217
replies(1): >>46228093 #
johncolanduoni ◴[11 Dec 25 05:46 UTC] No.46228093[source]▶
Never call a man happy until he is dead. Also I don’t think your argument generalizes well - there are plenty of private research investment bubbles that have popped and not reached their original peaks (e.g. VR).
replies(1): >>46228296 #
Tossrock ◴[11 Dec 25 06:28 UTC] No.46228296[source]▶
It wasn't a generalized argument, though, it was a specific one, about AI.
replies(2): >>46229046 #>>46235664 #
1. xpe ◴[11 Dec 25 19:06 UTC] No.46235664[source]▶
Here is one sentence from the referenced prediction:

> I don't think there will be any more AI winters.

This isn't enough to qualify as a testable prediction, in the eyes of people that care about such things, because there is no good way to formulate a resolution criteria for a claim that extends indefinitely into the future. See [1] for a great introduction.

[1]: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq