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404 points voxleone | 47 comments | | HN request time: 0.002s | source | bottom
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bahmboo ◴[] No.45660320[source]
"The president and I want to get to the moon in this president's term" - Sean Duffy NASA administrator.

A scary way to set a schedule on a complex project with lives at stake. They don't care though.

replies(23): >>45660416 #>>45660527 #>>45660821 #>>45660902 #>>45660920 #>>45660957 #>>45661025 #>>45661086 #>>45661197 #>>45661359 #>>45661924 #>>45662101 #>>45662301 #>>45663008 #>>45663548 #>>45663848 #>>45663936 #>>45664547 #>>45665860 #>>45666795 #>>45667744 #>>45670520 #>>45686581 #
WalterBright ◴[] No.45660416[source]
Having a deadline is how things get done. With no deadline, nothing gets accomplished.
replies(6): >>45660444 #>>45660462 #>>45660483 #>>45660550 #>>45660916 #>>45661152 #
1. bahmboo ◴[] No.45660462[source]
This is a political deadline with no grounding in reality.
replies(8): >>45660522 #>>45660593 #>>45660629 #>>45660678 #>>45660703 #>>45660846 #>>45660855 #>>45661417 #
2. opwieurposiu ◴[] No.45660522[source]
Hey, it worked when JFK did it!
replies(1): >>45661798 #
3. hypeatei ◴[] No.45660593[source]
Precisely. Trump wants to put his name on things for the history books.
replies(1): >>45664428 #
4. oceanplexian ◴[] No.45660629[source]
JFK proposed we go to the Moon in 1962. We did it in 1969, 7 years later.
replies(3): >>45660814 #>>45660904 #>>45660956 #
5. colechristensen ◴[] No.45660678[source]
The entire Apollo program was a political stunt to upstage the USSR.
replies(2): >>45661243 #>>45661761 #
6. kulahan ◴[] No.45660703[source]
So just like every other deadline I'm given, then.
7. phkahler ◴[] No.45660814[source]
Not only that, he wanted to go to the moon before the end of the decade. They made it within that time.
replies(1): >>45661806 #
8. echelon ◴[] No.45660846[source]
I feel like that attitude has kept us on earth all this time.

We let people do stupid shit and kill themselves all the time. Driving 80+ MPH, driving motorcycles, recreational drugs, alcohol, climbing Everest, etc.

I think it's fine. If I were in the position, I'd sign up to do this.

The moon is meaningful.

replies(1): >>45660913 #
9. chrisco255 ◴[] No.45660855[source]
This is preferable to "we'll go back again maybe one day 5 decades from now, if we get around to it"
10. ambicapter ◴[] No.45660904[source]
Crucially, not during his term (or his life, but that's irrelevant).
replies(3): >>45661059 #>>45666295 #>>45668753 #
11. mikkupikku ◴[] No.45660956[source]
They also killed three astronauts in the process and had to stop the program and reevaluate their whole approach to safety.

The risk of people dying is sometimes an acceptable risk. We accept it every time a firefighter goes into a burning building. Is a national vanity project like Moon missions worth the risk? Maybe then, when it was novel and inspirational, but now, when it's a retro throwback and the only reason we're doing it is to avoid losing face to the communist Chinese?

replies(2): >>45661496 #>>45661515 #
12. MarsIronPI ◴[] No.45660963{3}[source]
> The moon will be desecrated by Trump planting some gaudy gilded flag with his name on it.

Let's be serious, please. When has Trump ever stuck his name or face on anything nationally meaningful?

13. leoc ◴[] No.45661059{3}[source]
Also at the cost of a really stupendous amount of money.
replies(1): >>45661609 #
14. NoMoreNicksLeft ◴[] No.45661243[source]
It was a semi-covert program to be able to get to the USSR in 25 minutes with 150ktons of carryon luggage.
replies(1): >>45664572 #
15. nobleach ◴[] No.45661417[source]
Most deadlines are completely made up to create a false scarcity of time. While I agree this one is pretty meaningless and we'll forget about it in a few days... it's not unlike any other silly deadline.
replies(1): >>45662088 #
16. fragmede ◴[] No.45661496{3}[source]
They knew the risks and chose to do it in the face of that. People take insane risks for the fun of it. Seen any of the RedBull stunts on YouTube lately? Humans with jet packs flying alongside jetliners!
17. kace91 ◴[] No.45661515{3}[source]
>and the only reason we're doing it is to avoid losing face to the communist

Totally unlike the first time.

replies(1): >>45661542 #
18. mikkupikku ◴[] No.45661542{4}[source]
Unlike the first time, it isn't new and isn't a technological flex. The payoff from the first time was marginal, measured mainly in the children it inspired to pursue STEM. This time, does anybody even care?
replies(2): >>45662056 #>>45666279 #
19. adventured ◴[] No.45661609{4}[source]
~$260 billion in today's dollar for the whole Apollo program. Cut out what we don't need to figure out in the present. Maybe a $100-$150 billion cost spread over five years. Trivial sum against a $40 trillion economy. If the only thing we needed to get back to the moon was $30 billion per year in expenditures for five years, Congress would sign off on that instantly.

I think the US is lacking the organization, culture, and on-a-mission mentality today, not money. I believe the money is the easiest part of the equation, the rest can't be faked or supplied at the click of a button. The US is no longer a serious nation hell-bent on accomplishing great/difficult things. Congress knows if they supply the $30 billion per year, what we'll get in the end is a broken program that won't achieve the set aims, and it'll just take 15 years at $40 billion per year instead, without a single Moon landing. They know full well how dysfunctional the US is, everybody is just acting when the cameras are on.

20. jjk166 ◴[] No.45661761[source]
A political stunt for America to upstage the USSR, not to stroke the ego of a particular American.
21. jjk166 ◴[] No.45661798[source]
Who was president during the moonlanding?
replies(1): >>45662118 #
22. jjk166 ◴[] No.45661806{3}[source]
Which is kind of the key point - Kennedy's deadline was a realistic one based on the technical difficulty of the challenge.
replies(2): >>45662331 #>>45662885 #
23. kace91 ◴[] No.45662056{5}[source]
I know, not disagreeing! You just left the ball bouncing and I couldn’t help writing the comment.
24. izzydata ◴[] No.45662088[source]
I don't agree. Deadlines are only partially made up, but not completely.
replies(1): >>45664559 #
25. tick_tock_tick ◴[] No.45662118{3}[source]
JFK got assassinated.....
replies(1): >>45663204 #
26. dghlsakjg ◴[] No.45662331{4}[source]
Artemis is scheduled to take longer than Apollo.

We are in year 8 of Artemis. In year 8 of Apollo there were multiple manned missions including one that went to the moon but did not land.

27. WalterBright ◴[] No.45662885{4}[source]
It was never realistic. It turned out be possible, though.

Also, corners were cut in the testing. (Full stack testing.)

replies(1): >>45663188 #
28. jjk166 ◴[] No.45663188{5}[source]
I don't know how you can claim a deadline that was achieved was not realistic.

Full stack testing was not cutting corners. After ground testing it was deemed that incremental testing would not be beneficial. Doing tasks in parallel instead of in series can introduce project risks, but that's not the same thing as cutting corners, which is where something necessary is not done at all.

replies(2): >>45663465 #>>45673775 #
29. jjk166 ◴[] No.45663204{4}[source]
And was the guy who took over after his assassination, and then won the next election, president during the moon landings?
30. WalterBright ◴[] No.45663465{6}[source]
It's not realistic that you can become a supermodel. But it's not impossible.

The idea that rocket X not exploding in a single launch makes it man-rated is cutting corners.

replies(1): >>45663587 #
31. jjk166 ◴[] No.45663587{7}[source]
I am not a supermodel, I don't have the looks for it. But for everyone who has become a supermodel, it was most certainly realistic that they could become supermodels. If you have what it takes to accomplish a task, accomplishing the task is realistic. That's what the term realistic means.

Full stack testing was testing the entire rocket at the same time instead of using dummy stages to test parts of the rocket separately. There was opposition to it because if the rocket failed it might be difficult to diagnose why exactly it failed, which would slow the project down in the long run. Based on the ground testing and advances in instrumentation, the risk of a project delay from a failure was considered acceptable. It still took multiple launches to man rate the rockets. There's a reason the first manned launch of the Saturn V was Apollo 8.

replies(2): >>45664402 #>>45666108 #
32. WalterBright ◴[] No.45664402{8}[source]
> who has become

After the fact, it always looks inevitable.

Would you have gone up on that first manned Saturn launch? Not me. Recall how the space shuttle was safe, until it blew up. And then it was safe again, and broke up on reentry.

replies(1): >>45674772 #
33. WalterBright ◴[] No.45664428[source]
https://www.obama.org/presidential-center/
34. dboreham ◴[] No.45664559{3}[source]
Nope, they're completely made up.
35. dboreham ◴[] No.45664572{3}[source]
That was Mercury. All the ICBM systems predate Apollo.
36. actionfromafar ◴[] No.45666108{8}[source]
"Winning the Powerball is totally realistic. Always knew I had it in me."
replies(1): >>45674827 #
37. busssard ◴[] No.45666279{5}[source]
i mean maintinaing a Base on the moon is definitely a technological flex. getting there not as much. Still challenging. Is it worth the risk and money? not sure, depends what our plan with this is. As a way to launch moon manufactured space probes? maybe.
replies(1): >>45666826 #
38. felipeerias ◴[] No.45666295{3}[source]
The moon landing would have probably happened during JFK’s second term, if he hadn’t been assassinated and if the Apollo 1 tragedy hadn’t set the project back significantly.
replies(1): >>45668159 #
39. mikkupikku ◴[] No.45666826{6}[source]
Maintaining a base in the Moon absolutely isn't going to happen. SLS is such a pig NASA can't even afford another test with Orion.
replies(1): >>45669983 #
40. ambicapter ◴[] No.45668159{4}[source]
I don't think his assassination had anything to do with Apollo 1, so I take it it probably would've still happened even if he were alive. Similarly, I don't think his assassination set back the project (ChatGPT says it probably reinforced support for the program, if anything, fwiw).

So, I imagine if he hadn't been assassinated, they probably would've landed on the moon around the same time, which would be after a possible 2nd term (unless he lost re-election and then won again).

replies(1): >>45675225 #
41. Symmetry ◴[] No.45668753{3}[source]
I wouldn't have counted on the new administration continuing to go to bat for the funding needed for Kennedy's vision without Kennedy's martyrdom.
42. busssard ◴[] No.45669983{7}[source]
i mean it surely will not happen with SLS, but maintinaing a moonbase WOULD be the technological feat
43. ramblenode ◴[] No.45673775{6}[source]
The parent is correct. JFK famously didn't consult with engineers when picking the timeline. It was just lucky that it all worked out.
replies(1): >>45675371 #
44. jjk166 ◴[] No.45674772{9}[source]
And before the fact it looked realistic.

Everyone on the first manned Saturn test died. Do you know why people got into the second manned test? It was not that they knew with certainty it would be safe, but because they thought it was realistic that they could accomplish their goal.

People die in car accidents every day, that does not make my plan to drive to work tomorrow unrealistic.

45. jjk166 ◴[] No.45674827{9}[source]
Spend $257 billion dollars on powerball tickets and yeah, winning the powerball is quite realistic. Indeed you have better than a 95% chance of winning at least 300 times.
46. ambicapter ◴[] No.45675225{5}[source]
Can't edit but when I said

> so I take it it probably would've still happened

I'm talking about the Apollo 1 fire.

47. jjk166 ◴[] No.45675371{7}[source]
No, JFK consulted extensively with the engineers beforehand. The end of the decade timeframe first came from a NASA study published February 7, 1961. Kennedy's budget had actually rejected the initial proposal from Webb to fund the moon program for an end of the decade moon mission just a few weeks prior to Gagarin's flight. A new proposal was put together and presented May 8, 1961 for Johnson by James Webb, Abe Hyatt, and Robert Seaman which pushed for a moon landing by end of decade. Von Braun was even more aggressive, telling Kennedy that it could be done by 1968.