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404 points voxleone | 29 comments | | HN request time: 0.711s | source | bottom
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BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45655541[source]
> Elon Musk, the boss of SpaceX, fired back: "SpaceX is moving like lightning compared to the rest of the space industry. Moreover, Starship will end up doing the whole Moon mission. Mark my words."

Still marking his words on self-driving vehicles so I guess we can add this to the list. What’s the casualty count so far on that one btw?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

replies(2): >>45655647 #>>45655760 #
1. boxed ◴[] No.45655647[source]
You need to keep two things in your mind at the same time:

Elon Musk sometimes say things that are true.

Elon Must sometimes say things that are not true.

In this case, it's the first one.

replies(3): >>45655767 #>>45656504 #>>45666010 #
2. askl ◴[] No.45655767[source]
> Elon Musk sometimes say things that are true.

Has this ever happened in the last 10 years?

replies(4): >>45655798 #>>45655960 #>>45656077 #>>45669094 #
3. a4isms ◴[] No.45655798[source]
He has often said things that are true, provided you ignore the ten to twenty times he said something else about the same subject with equal confidence. He is a master of goalpost relocation. Ask any Cybertruck owner. He shipped it, but was it the Cybertruck he promised?
4. destitude ◴[] No.45655960[source]
Catching of a booster which everyone else thought was the stupidest craziest thing ever and they did it on first try.
replies(1): >>45658562 #
5. brightball ◴[] No.45656077[source]
What questions do you have following the results of Tesla, SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, etc?

I've got a HW4 Tesla Model 3 right now and the FSD experience is so good I use it constantly...and I was one of those "I will never trust self driving cars" people for years.

replies(1): >>45662786 #
6. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45656504[source]
Considering their contract just went back up for grabs I’m not sure how true that statement is.

> you need to keep two things in your mind at the same time

This was unnecessary and patronizing.

replies(2): >>45656572 #>>45669034 #
7. rkomorn ◴[] No.45656572[source]
> Considering their contract just went back up for grabs I’m not sure how true that statement is.

TBH, with this administration, I wouldn't trust whatever either NASA or SpaceX say or do as a sign of anything.

replies(1): >>45657683 #
8. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45657683{3}[source]
That's fair too
9. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45658562{3}[source]
If people can constantly attack Steve Jobs for “just being an idea guy” while Wozniak did all the work, I think we can all agree that Elon Musk deserves (at most) limited credit for the amazing engineering achievement one of his several companies/projects accomplished. Especially given the overlap with his several-months-long stint being a Trump groupie and proudly taking a chainsaw to the US government.

Yes his vision and direction matters. But let’s not act like the dude did that himself. Especially while he was so distracted having his nose up Trump’s proverbial rear.

replies(1): >>45668987 #
10. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45662786{3}[source]
>Tesla

His rapidly deteriorating market share in Europe and basically anything cybertruck related

>SpaceX

The contract they had that just reopened for bidding

>neuralink

Haven’t they stopped human trials because they were running into serious issues? I feel like I read something about that but I can’t recall the exact nature of the issue.

>starlink

Pretty sure the Canadian government abandoned their big contract with starlink. A cursory Google search shows that “several governments and organizations have paused or canceled their contracts.” AI summary so should probably be investigated more in depth but I imagine it’s largely accurate.

I see that his hyperloop company didn’t make the list, which went belly up just a year or two ago.

Robotaxi was shut down in Phoenix after all sorts of safety issues arose.

Several major projects have stalled or been shut down over the last few years.

replies(1): >>45664619 #
11. brightball ◴[] No.45664619{4}[source]
Tesla stock price has never been higher…

SpaceX accounts for over 90% of global space launch payloads.

Neuralink…this is from Oct 10th.

https://x.com/neuralink/status/1976803020190236915?s=46

Starlink is changing the world, airlines, cruises, rural areas and defeated Russian interference in Ukraine. They lost contracts in Canada due to short sited political motivations who were willing to waste 3 times as much tax payer funds because of it. Starlink is doing great.

replies(2): >>45664732 #>>45676262 #
12. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45664732{5}[source]
Glad to see neuralink is working. Truly. Of all the projects he’s involved in that one and SpaceX are two I am actively rooting for and hope succeed.

Stock prices =/= their sales aren’t plummeting in Europe. You asked what questions we had, my question is “what is he going to do about their reputation in countries that care about his unhinged behavior as it’s clearly effecting their sales?” Also, we’re both on HN. We both know that stock price does not directly correlate with the health of a business.

Starlink was withheld from Ukraine early in the war at an incredibly critical time in case you forgot - he literally dictated where they could and couldn’t use the service (denied access in Crimea for drone operations). Should musk be unilaterally deciding the fate of Ukraine’s military operations, without warning at that? I hope we both agree the answer is “no.” And whether it’s short sighted or not the contracts Starlink lost were to the tune of 9 figures. You blame “short sighted” political motivations, I blame a ketamine-addled fickle billionaire who can’t keep his impulses in check. He consistently acts like a petulant, drunk child. We’ve seen it over and over again.

You ignored half the companies/projects I mentioned.

replies(1): >>45669487 #
13. DonHopkins ◴[] No.45666010[source]
Elon Musk sometimes say things that are true, like the fact that Trump is on the Epstein list, then retracts them.
14. boxed ◴[] No.45668987{4}[source]
And yet, no other rocket company has done anything close. And no other car company has made such radical differences in the market as Tesla.

Again: you must be able to keep two things in your head at once. I understand that Elon is an absolute ass, but also that he has made several incredible (literally!) things happen. Give credit where credit is due, and give blame where blame is do. Don't confuse the two.

replies(1): >>45669262 #
15. boxed ◴[] No.45669034[source]
> Considering their contract just went back up for grabs I’m not sure how true that statement is.

SpaceX is far and away the most credible contractor. And it's not even close.

> This was unnecessary and patronizing

And yet, you said something that was uninformed AGAIN just after I pointed out how uninformed that take was. Doubling down on the mistake is even MORE reason for me to keep reminding you to keep the two things in view at the same time.

replies(1): >>45674318 #
16. boxed ◴[] No.45669094[source]
Come now. Are you really saying that this is a lie:

> The nice thing is, if you’ve got friends in different cities and they’re playing the same game, you can both go online at the same time and play the game together even though you’re in different cities.

Of course he says true things. And on purpose too! (Unlike Trump :P)

https://www.rev.com/transcripts/elon-musk-interview-with-don...

17. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45669262{5}[source]
> you must be able to keep two things in your head at once

You need to stop saying this it is incredibly rude and patronizing. I specifically pointed this out the first time you said it, so I can only assume you’re doing it intentionally at this point out of disrespect.

replies(1): >>45674307 #
18. brightball ◴[] No.45669487{6}[source]
> You blame “short sighted” political motivations, I blame a ketamine-addled fickle billionaire who can’t keep his impulses in check. He consistently acts like a petulant, drunk child. We’ve seen it over and over again.

When people are willing to waste taxpayer funds to go with a solution 3x more expensive, it's absolutely a short sighted political motivation. Nobody who actually answers to their constituents could waste money to that degree.

replies(1): >>45672837 #
19. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45672837{7}[source]
He unilaterally withheld starlink from Ukraine when he didn’t like the way they were fighting a war for their survival. Why would a government trust an unstable billionaire who does that?
replies(1): >>45680863 #
20. boxed ◴[] No.45674307{6}[source]
I'm doing it because you are failing to do so. Blatantly.
replies(1): >>45674336 #
21. ◴[] No.45674318{3}[source]
22. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45674336{7}[source]
You can’t talk to people like this and I won’t be engaging with you further.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

23. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45676262{5}[source]
Heh right on cue:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/22/tesla-ear...

> It also reported a net income of $1.4bn, down from $2.2bn, a drop of 37% in its profits.

I’m not saying the company is doomed but there are some serious red flags going up in recent months

replies(1): >>45680597 #
24. brightball ◴[] No.45680597{6}[source]
https://x.com/jonerlichman/status/1981089027722711342?s=46

Revenues keep growing. Drops in profit are from margin and R&D increases (Optimus, taxis, etc).

replies(1): >>45681172 #
25. brightball ◴[] No.45680863{8}[source]
I checked on this and it’s not as cut and dry as you make it out to be.

> That said, there was later controversy in 2023 reports about a 2022 incident where Musk refused to extend or activate Starlink coverage over Russian-occupied Crimea to prevent its use in a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea fleet, citing concerns over escalating the war. Musk has stated this was to avoid complicity in a “major act of war,” and clarified that coverage wasn’t active in that area to begin with, so he declined Ukraine’s request to enable it.

replies(1): >>45683049 #
26. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45681172{7}[source]
I would read the above article for a clearer picture of what’s going on. It’s got a little more info than a single tweet with just a revenue list YoY.
replies(1): >>45685386 #
27. BolexNOLA ◴[] No.45683049{9}[source]
It’s exactly as cut and dry as I am making it out to be. He had total control of the situation and the ability to decide what would happen, which he exercised.
replies(1): >>45685419 #
28. brightball ◴[] No.45685386{8}[source]
Not seeing much substance there. They essentially skip of the drop in profit margin without discussing R&D costs, investments in Optimus, Robotaxi, Powerwall etc.

It's as if people think Tesla is just a car company.

In 2024 they made 10 billion just from their solar energy business.

29. brightball ◴[] No.45685419{10}[source]
Yes. It's good to know that he didn't fall victim to the Stanford prison experiment.

In that situation, there's very little difference from asking him to pull the trigger himself. You might not like the decision, but you have to acknowledge that it's not an easy one.