Piracy -> Friendly ways to buy -> Unfriendly ways to buy -> Piracy -> ...
Unfortunately, giving money back to writers involves hopping through piracy. At that point, a new, consumer-friendly service will sprout up. Everyone will use it.
Over time, the service will want to profit-maximize, and will adopt anti-consumer techniques. Leading people to go to Pirate Bay. Leading to friendly services.
Rinse, repeat.
You're making an argument that empowers the likes of Amazon, not "writers", and it's by design that you've been fed that story.
There are other possibilities, such as people simply not writing as much anymore, or higher quality writers existing the market due to lack of sufficient return.
Individuals who pirate my books are also more likely to buy them in the future.
Piracy is just about accessibility and trust. If the person can't afford to take a chance, they pirate. And if you win them there, they'll buy.
(Nit: Zero of that applies to corps. Thanks Anthropic, Meta, and everyone else.)
So unless the book is checked out a thousand times over and its lifetime, buying it still dominates overall.
It would be interesting to see at what point of notoriety that is no longer true. Like is this still a factor for Stephen King, or at that point is it really just lost sales?
You think more piracy leads to more sales, but surely this is correlation, not causation? It seems far more plausible that popular books get pirated and bought more, hence the correlation.
But if you're not Stephen King, then more piracy is going to make a direct, causal, positive impact on your sales.
Piracy creates an invested reader. Its not much different than games selling by offering free demos.
There is a _causation_ there, because the reader likely never would have discovered me, otherwise.
Unfortunately, I'm Australian, and my government saw fit to narrow their interpretation of current laws, to make AI scraping of illegally obtained data, legal.
You now have to prove direct harm - not the indirect harm happening to the entire industry.
As for scale... There is only a tiny fraction of the industry that can support their life on writer's income, let alone be a household name.
It probably does become just lost sales at that point, but to reach that, you're probably already beyond most competitive forces, leaving only piracy around.
If I’ll ever to become an author myself, I don’t see any issue with that.
[0] https://www.oaic.gov.au/news/media-centre/global-expectation...
Similar thing happened with music, only rather than piracy, it landed on legal / free (e.g. Youtube). Youtube is just starting to do the consumer-unfriendly thing (but it's got a long ways to go before piracy comes out competitive).
Similar in books.
I'll mention: A lot of these are consumer-unfriendly in some ways (e.g. Netflix DRM), but friendly in others. $20/month for all the movies you can watch beats piracy.
In the end I pirated more often. I am not proud of that, but I also don't see how any of this makes any difference. It's not like I'll ever buy the book with my own money.