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360 points danielmorozoff | 17 comments | | HN request time: 0.002s | source | bottom
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ckemere ◴[] No.45035120[source]
I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly.

If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a huge win for them for a cost that no one else was willing to pay.

To be clear, at that order of magnitude they might make back their investment, but it won’t be 10x or 100x, and the potential healthy-brain-connected-to-the-AI play is much less rooted in reality than Teslas all becoming taxis.

Worst case scenario is that Elon loses interest and pulls the plug and Mr Arbaugh loses continued tech support a la a google product. I think that’s the one question I wish the author had asked…

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1. maxlin ◴[] No.45035665[source]
Companies like this going under is a horror story for the patients I've seen playing out a few times. But I honestly can't see something as public and well-funded having the same fate. "Elon Musk losing interest" isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do. He loves the tech and the ideals, and Neuralink is past the point of ever being potentially a dud
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2. ValentinPearce ◴[] No.45036292[source]
> he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do

I'm pretty sure he does, his actions in government and his lobbying were specifically so he made more money. He does love the tech, though I'm not as optimistic about his love of the ideals (but that might be the socialist in me talking).

I'm am wary about how brain implants could be abused further down the line, but for now it's not the main thing I'm looking at with Neuralink. It seems to be a positive change for the patient, and if costs can be reduced to make it affordable to the masses, it can be a great thing.a

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3. LunaSea ◴[] No.45036882[source]
> isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do

Is that why he sued to obtain his $29B package from Tesla shareholders?

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4. vasco ◴[] No.45037031[source]
Ah yes he just became a billionnaire because he isn't money motivated and just loves tech. If only we all loved tech as much as Elon and money as little as Elon does.
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5. sokoloff ◴[] No.45037476[source]
I’m not the biggest Elon fan, but “man sues to receive the thing he earned over several years of accomplishment that made a lot of people a lot more money than they originally agreed to pay him” is something a lot of people are understandably sympathetic to.
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6. SilverBirch ◴[] No.45037534[source]
Sorry what? You couldn't have picked a better example of someone who is going get bored, walk off and leave customers screwed. Tesla customers bought a full self-driving car about a decade ago. Where is it? Oh yes, that's right. Elon Musk lost interest and now he's over at neuralink sticking electrodes in this guys head. This guy better hope that Elon doesn't get bored again.
7. LunaSea ◴[] No.45038928{3}[source]
> man sues to receive the thing he earned over several years of accomplishment that made a lot of people a lot more money than they originally agreed to pay him

Do you have a source for this?

As far as I understand, the bonus package represents a large part of revenue of all Teslas sold since the beginning.

> is something a lot of people are understandably sympathetic to.

Does he also need to pay back stocks when he does a nazi salute, thus tarnishing the brand's image and stock value?

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8. plqbfbv ◴[] No.45039472[source]
> Is that why he sued to obtain his $29B package from Tesla shareholders?

I think you're confused on two sort-of-related things: one is the $56B package agreed to and approved in 2018 that a judge decided to revoke, for that he's suing.

The other one is the relatively recent (July/August) $29B package that was created by two indipendent board advisors to give him a "salary" (he did not participate or vote on the creation of this package), since apparently he received nothing from Tesla for the past 6-7 years. This comes as a result of him expressing that if he wants more control over the company, or he's going to build things (AI, robotics) outside of it. Part of the deal is that he's to forfeit this if the ruling on the 2018 package is in his favor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lawsuits_involving_Tes...

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat...

https://techcrunch.com/2025/08/04/tesla-hands-29b-comp-packa...

9. sokoloff ◴[] No.45041884{4}[source]
> Do you have a source for this?

At the time of the original pay package award (3/21/2018), with primary performance conditions being the growth of Tesla market cap (making money for Tesla shareholders), Tesla had a market cap of $53.5B.

At the time the lawsuit against Musk set aside that pay package in January 2024, Tesla's market cap had expanded under Musk's leadership to around $600B.

$600B - $55B = $545 billion in market cap increase (making money for shareholders), which dwarfs both the $29B he agreed to take as well as the larger amount he would have been due under the 2018 agreement.

10. maxlin ◴[] No.45046175[source]
If you stop and think for a second, SpaceX was the dumbest ticket to buy to win a lottery. Everyone else had failed. He says it himself; he's not a businessman. How his companies work with hype both for hiring and selling product should point out they aren't "normal".
11. maxlin ◴[] No.45046195[source]
What a crazy disinforming way to spin that story.

I was one of those shareholders who voted FOR that pay package with power of six figures worth of stock. He didn't "sue the shareholders"

Shareholders are strongly on Elon's side here, as they have always have been. The only reason there is a lawsuit is because some bent judge is trying to take the shareholder's power away from them and not grant the pay package. Absolute corruption.

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12. maxlin ◴[] No.45046232{4}[source]
Imagine people going around you and waiting to take photo of you calling a taxi a bit wonkily then using that as a proof to try to make your employer sue you for all you're worth. Everyone who even alludes to it as a salute is quite far deranged, especially if still talking about it
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13. maxlin ◴[] No.45046236{4}[source]
>AtlasBarfed is a Nazi. He should not be commenting on Hacker News

see, I can make up stupid shit too.

People really claiming Elon is somehow a hinderance to the thing he created from scratch and where almost all shareholders are on his side is just hilarious...

14. maxlin ◴[] No.45047800[source]
Recent things with the government could sell an image of political games. But then again, he has laid out a quite high effort reasoning behind his candidate's support outside any business relation, and has kept consistency on those beliefs. Don't see any real comparison to acting like this; Jensen & Co sure as hell would rather be strategically ambiguous or a weather vane than state controversial beliefs on podcasts "just for political games".

Also, no people of the class we're alluding to would found SpaceX knowing its very likely going to fail and will be an absolute waste of money and potentially risk their whole luxurious welfare.

Or do that twice, with Tesla having teetered as badly too. With him sleeping on the couches in the plants. And not just during crises, as he seemingly visits his operations every week if you see how much he makes good use of his jet.

He's an alien compared to the lot.

15. peterfirefly ◴[] No.45049218{3}[source]
Ostensibly for the benefit of a man who had 9 shares. And then that man's lawyers demanded billions from Tesla for their trouble.

Same judge who forced him to overpay for Twitter.

16. ryoshoe ◴[] No.45053694{5}[source]
This wasn't an ill timed photo. There's a video of him making the gesture, twice
17. enslavedrobot ◴[] No.45055372[source]
Let's make a deal. You invest $100 in my company. I won't take a salary unless I at least double your money. Everytime I double your money you owe me 1% of your gains. Is this a fair deal?

That's the deal we voted for and Tesla grew 2000%. Very pleased with the outcome and would vote for any pay package at any company that was similarly structured.