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360 points danielmorozoff | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source
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ckemere ◴[] No.45035120[source]
I think that the negativity here is unfortunate. The reality is that it’s very hard to see a normal VC level return on the $100M+ Elon and friends have invested here. And don’t let anyone fool you - this is the fundamental reason the BCI field has moved slowly.

If Neuralink proceeds to a scenario where quadriplegic patients can get reliable (ie lifelong) control of their computers for less than $100k that will be a huge win for them for a cost that no one else was willing to pay.

To be clear, at that order of magnitude they might make back their investment, but it won’t be 10x or 100x, and the potential healthy-brain-connected-to-the-AI play is much less rooted in reality than Teslas all becoming taxis.

Worst case scenario is that Elon loses interest and pulls the plug and Mr Arbaugh loses continued tech support a la a google product. I think that’s the one question I wish the author had asked…

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maxlin ◴[] No.45035665[source]
Companies like this going under is a horror story for the patients I've seen playing out a few times. But I honestly can't see something as public and well-funded having the same fate. "Elon Musk losing interest" isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do. He loves the tech and the ideals, and Neuralink is past the point of ever being potentially a dud
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LunaSea ◴[] No.45036882[source]
> isn't really something I see likely as he doesn't function in the money-oriented ways pretty much almost all other billionaire-types do

Is that why he sued to obtain his $29B package from Tesla shareholders?

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sokoloff ◴[] No.45037476{3}[source]
I’m not the biggest Elon fan, but “man sues to receive the thing he earned over several years of accomplishment that made a lot of people a lot more money than they originally agreed to pay him” is something a lot of people are understandably sympathetic to.
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LunaSea ◴[] No.45038928{4}[source]
> man sues to receive the thing he earned over several years of accomplishment that made a lot of people a lot more money than they originally agreed to pay him

Do you have a source for this?

As far as I understand, the bonus package represents a large part of revenue of all Teslas sold since the beginning.

> is something a lot of people are understandably sympathetic to.

Does he also need to pay back stocks when he does a nazi salute, thus tarnishing the brand's image and stock value?

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1. sokoloff ◴[] No.45041884{5}[source]
> Do you have a source for this?

At the time of the original pay package award (3/21/2018), with primary performance conditions being the growth of Tesla market cap (making money for Tesla shareholders), Tesla had a market cap of $53.5B.

At the time the lawsuit against Musk set aside that pay package in January 2024, Tesla's market cap had expanded under Musk's leadership to around $600B.

$600B - $55B = $545 billion in market cap increase (making money for shareholders), which dwarfs both the $29B he agreed to take as well as the larger amount he would have been due under the 2018 agreement.