←back to thread

280 points dargscisyhp | 1 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source
Show context
padjo ◴[] No.44765718[source]
It’s pretty clear that the only numbers this administration are interested in are ones that support the narrative that the great leader is infallible.
replies(2): >>44765768 #>>44765910 #
exe34 ◴[] No.44765768[source]
They just fired the commissioner of Labour Statistics. The great thing about autocrats is that they neuter their own country pretty quickly. When you make it risky for people to give you bad news, you end up with missiles that don't work and capital ships that sink.
replies(4): >>44765787 #>>44765836 #>>44766036 #>>44775268 #
roenxi ◴[] No.44765836[source]
The US BLS does seem to have a bit of a history [0] with their job reporting though. The process they've been using appears biased to over report initially and then get revised down over time. I'm sure there are a lot of political considerations, but from a raw statistical perspective there is a pretty easy path to getting better results. They could eliminate the optimistic bias and aim for accuracy.

If it were me I'd be sacking people until they started getting a mean adjustment somewhere around 0. I doubt that is what Trump is doing, but the managers left themselves vulnerable to technical criticism.

[0] https://mishtalk.com/economics/in-honor-of-labor-day-lets-re...

replies(4): >>44766006 #>>44766042 #>>44766083 #>>44766383 #
delusional ◴[] No.44766006[source]
> If it were me I'd be sacking people

Why sack them? It's not like they refused to mean adjust or failed to do so. The numbers came out, and before anybody has even had a chance to question them. Before any coherent criticism as had time to root, the person responsible is fired.

Firing people is not how you get more accurate numbers. It's how you get yes-men.

replies(2): >>44766148 #>>44766216 #
1. kergonath ◴[] No.44766216[source]
> Firing people is not how you get more accurate numbers. It's how you get yes-men.

When reality and truth do not matter, why would they want accurate numbers? They do not need the country to flourish, they just need their personal wealth to grow and the rest of the population to remain compliant. From that point of view, shooting the messenger before the message gets out of control makes perfect sense. It is working well enough for many autocratic regimes around the world.