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280 points dargscisyhp | 7 comments | | HN request time: 0s | source | bottom
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padjo ◴[] No.44765718[source]
It’s pretty clear that the only numbers this administration are interested in are ones that support the narrative that the great leader is infallible.
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exe34 ◴[] No.44765768[source]
They just fired the commissioner of Labour Statistics. The great thing about autocrats is that they neuter their own country pretty quickly. When you make it risky for people to give you bad news, you end up with missiles that don't work and capital ships that sink.
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roenxi ◴[] No.44765836[source]
The US BLS does seem to have a bit of a history [0] with their job reporting though. The process they've been using appears biased to over report initially and then get revised down over time. I'm sure there are a lot of political considerations, but from a raw statistical perspective there is a pretty easy path to getting better results. They could eliminate the optimistic bias and aim for accuracy.

If it were me I'd be sacking people until they started getting a mean adjustment somewhere around 0. I doubt that is what Trump is doing, but the managers left themselves vulnerable to technical criticism.

[0] https://mishtalk.com/economics/in-honor-of-labor-day-lets-re...

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delusional ◴[] No.44766006[source]
> If it were me I'd be sacking people

Why sack them? It's not like they refused to mean adjust or failed to do so. The numbers came out, and before anybody has even had a chance to question them. Before any coherent criticism as had time to root, the person responsible is fired.

Firing people is not how you get more accurate numbers. It's how you get yes-men.

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1. roenxi ◴[] No.44766148[source]
> It's not like they refused to mean adjust or failed to do so.

It is like they failed to do so - there is a timeseries of consistently negative adjustments. The BLS revising numbers down isn't an unexpected event, that is pretty standard for their jobs reports.

It is better to resolve things with a conversation rather than formal action. But if a conversation doesn't get immediate results it is fastest just to move people on at that level of seniority. The competition is fierce and it is more about finding the right person for the job than trying to micromanage performance.

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2. disgruntledphd2 ◴[] No.44766275[source]
Generally, firing statisticians because you don't like their numbers doesn't improve the accuracy of their estimates, but apparently people need to keep learning this lesson.
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3. roenxi ◴[] No.44766302[source]
As far as I'm aware no statisticians have been fired and no suggestion has been made that they should be. McEntarfer is pretty high up in the food chain; she's there to be accountable for performance, not to crunch numbers.
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4. ◴[] No.44766412{3}[source]
5. Terr_ ◴[] No.44766447{3}[source]
> As far as I'm aware no statisticians have been fired

And nobody at CBS has been arrested, but that doesn't mean corruption isn't happening.

6. disgruntledphd2 ◴[] No.44767538{3}[source]
Ok fair enough, but this is very very very like the Greek incident.

More generally, this is incredibly dumb in many, many ways. Like, the BLS can't control survey response rates, and the fact that Covid has broken the seasonal models for basically every long-run time series is also outside their control.

One could argue that they should be using IRS tax data to figure this out, but that would be a massive change.

And finally, if the numbers looked good, there would have been no firing (regardless of the errors). It's gonna be an interesting Monday on Wall St.

7. exe34 ◴[] No.44769051[source]
> there is a timeseries of consistently negative adjustments

That's an important point actually - so the hypothetical future correction (based on past corrections) to the "bad" figures would make Trump look even worse, right?