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191 points aorloff | 29 comments | | HN request time: 0.001s | source | bottom
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andy99 ◴[] No.44467803[source]
Most interesting to me is that people are worried about a $2B transaction moving the market.

How does that compare to the market depth of actual currencies or commodities? BTC, being objectively worthless, must be much more sensitive to people wanting to sell I'd expect.

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1. bboygravity ◴[] No.44467823[source]
How is BTC objectively worthless (I'm guessing you mean "intrinsicly worthlesss"?) as opposed to USD or other major currencies?
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2. anothernewdude ◴[] No.44467871[source]
Other currencies get their value because the governments that provide them make people pay taxes. If you want to pay the tax the US government charges you, you're going to need some USD - so there's guaranteed demand, and hence intrinsic worth.

There's also other debt that the US government provides in USD - which provides value as well, in the form of bonds.

BTC has no such driver of wealth. Except perhaps money laundering/transfers without AML provisions.

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3. nwienert ◴[] No.44467888[source]
People value a way to store money securely in a place that can’t be physically robbed, that can be sent internationally with low fees quickly.

You don’t need anything else.

For years the haters on here would screech “but it’s volatile” - not really anymore. I wonder what they’ll decide to hate it for now, rather than changing priors.

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4. logicchains ◴[] No.44467911[source]
>Other currencies get their value because the governments that provide them make people pay taxes

That's demonstrably false, because countries like Zimbabwe and Venezuela experienced hyperinflation (the complete devaluation of a currency) in spite of the fact that their governments were still forcing people to pay taxes with those currencies. So clearly that alone is not enough to provide intrinsic worth to a currency.

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5. andy99 ◴[] No.44467952[source]
Yeah bitcoin is (at best[0]) a kind of consensual hallucination, worth something because people believe it is. Fiat is someone with a Navy telling you it's worth money, it's very different.

[0] in practice there's a difference between the idea of a distributed digital currency and the ponzi schemes they give rise to I'm real life. Bitcoin is some greater fool thing, it's not a medium of exchange.

6. PartiallyTyped ◴[] No.44467957[source]
It's not backed by a government, and while some may say that's a good thing, I think it is not.

Without institutional backing, crypto is just a number in a database that people agree is worth something—for now.

If that collective belief evaporates, there’s no court, no army, no tax base, and no GDP to catch it. Contrast this with fiat currency, which—while not backed by gold—is backed by coercive power and taxation.

Let’s start from something even more fundamental. How do you bootstrap trust? Suppose two pseudonymous entities online want to exchange money for services. Such a system will likely need a reputation system to establish the trustworthiness of entities. That system needs to be tolerant to Sybil attacks (i.e., forging multiple identities), while also ensuring the service provider isn’t exploited by a buyer who refuses to pay after receiving the work.

But this exposes a deeper issue: trust cannot be bootstrapped from scratch. It needs either:

    A shared history (which pseudonyms lack),

    An external authority (which decentralization avoids), or

    A system of credible, enforceable consequences (which requires identity or stake).
Without these, any trust system collapses into a prisoner’s dilemma. Each actor is incentivized to defect (cheat) unless:

    There’s a future cost to cheating (reputation loss that matters),

    There’s a benefit to cooperation over time (e.g. recurring jobs),

    Or there's a credible mechanism to enforce fairness (e.g. escrow and arbitration).
But even escrow only works when dispute resolution is possible and trusted. And dispute resolution requires either a neutral arbitrator (who must have their own identity and incentives) or hard-coded, binary rules, which rarely capture the complexity of creative or service work.

More fundamentally, trust-based systems are built on recursive assumptions:

    You trust X because X has a good rep.

    X has a good rep because others say so.

    You trust those others because…?
Eventually, without a root of trust—whether a state, a court, a verified identity, or long-standing social capital—the entire structure becomes circular. There’s no ground truth. Just reputation built on sand.

And so, the real limitation isn’t crypto per se—it’s that trustless systems don’t exist. At best, we shift trust: from institutions to code, from names to keys, from legal consequences to probabilistic deterrents. But the requirement for trust itself never goes away.

In a pseudonymous setting, the cost of betrayal is minimal. A buyer can stiff a seller and vanish. A seller can deliver garbage or nothing. Reputation can be reset at will unless there’s an expensive cost to identity creation or a strongly linked personal history—which violates pseudonymity.

Thus, bootstrapping trust in such environments is not just technically hard—it is philosophically incoherent without compromising at least one of the pillars: privacy, decentralization, or enforceability.

It follows that if you can’t bootstrap trust, you can’t bootstrap anything that depends on it—including money. Money, at its core, is a social contract, a belief system upheld by collective trust. We accept currency in exchange for goods or services because we trust that others will accept it from us in turn. That belief is reinforced by institutional structures: central banks, governments, legal systems, and ultimately, enforcement mechanisms.

But the moment that trust breaks down, the system unravels. If people no longer trust that their money will hold value tomorrow, they will try to offload it as fast as possible, converting it into hard goods, foreign currency, or anything perceived as more stable. This behavior accelerates inflation—sometimes catastrophically.

We’ve seen this repeatedly in history:

    In Weimar Germany, the collapse of political and institutional trust after WWI led to hyperinflation, with prices doubling every few days.

    In Zimbabwe, trust in government policy collapsed alongside the economy, and the currency became worthless.

    In Venezuela, rampant inflation was fueled not just by bad economic policy but by the public’s loss of faith in any institutional ability to right the course.
The underlying mechanism is always the same: money ceases to function as a store of value when the population no longer trusts the system that issues and manages it. Once the shared illusion cracks, even fiat currency—backed by laws, taxes, and armies—can become just colored paper.

Now contrast that with crypto. Cryptocurrencies claim to solve this by removing central authorities and placing trust in mathematics and distributed consensus. But this is not true trustlessness—it's merely replacing institutional trust with collective belief in code and game theory. And the cracks are showing: when confidence drops, as in market crashes or protocol failures, value disappears just as quickly—if not faster—than in fiat regimes.

So the uncomfortable truth is this:

    Money only works if you believe it will still work tomorrow.
Without enforceable trust, money becomes unstable. Without shared trust, money becomes meaningless.

And that brings us back to the core issue: you cannot build a functioning economy without some root of trust. Whether that root is institutional, social, or cryptographic, it must be anchored, persistent, and costly to betray. If it’s not, the system becomes inherently fragile.

The reason I used pseudonymous here is exactly because we assumed govs are bad. If govs are good, then crypto degenerates to just a slower system for transactions.

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7. PartiallyTyped ◴[] No.44467967{3}[source]
The reason for that devaluation is that trust was eroded. GP's premise is correct, that fiat has value because of governments, but the reasoning here is not fully correct. The value is in the trust that the government and the institutions will continue to function properly.
8. analog31 ◴[] No.44468271[source]
This doesn't explain why the currencies of different countries behave differently.

In my view, money is a technology. People use a technology if they find it to be useful. I know this sounds circular, but bear with me. A "major" currency is designed to be useful as a medium of exchange, temporary store of value, and tool of government economic policy. For it to serve these purposes, a government has to moderate its own behavior to some extent.

Thus my view is that the value of a major currency is based, not on the expectation of paying taxes in the future, but on more general expectations of the future behavior of the government.

With that said, paying taxes is good use for money that's a short term store of value, because you rarely need to hold onto your tax money for more than a year before paying it.

9. FabHK ◴[] No.44470578{3}[source]
According to your theory, all the thousands of shitcoins are valuable. But they're not.

There must be further reasons, then, that the price of Bitcoin is so high. And they're purely sentiment, I'd argue. If that changes, there's little to prevent the price from going down very far very fast. Unlike fiat.

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10. lottin ◴[] No.44470660[source]
The expected discounted value of all bitcoin's future cash flows is zero. This is because the only cash flow that a bitcoin investor can expect from an investment in bitcoins is the revenue from selling the bitcoins in the market... and the market value of something that has no use case and is held for speculative purposes only (i.e. has no intrinsic value) will tend to zero in the long run.

A fiat currency that is issued by the government has no intrinsic value either, but there's one crucial difference compared to a cryptocurrency: in the case of a government-issued fiat currency the central bank will intervene the market, by making use of its prerogative to conduct monetary policy, to ensure price of the currency doesn't drop to zero.

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11. amjnsx ◴[] No.44470717[source]
And this has proven successful in many countries such as Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Argentina
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12. lottin ◴[] No.44470910{3}[source]
Generally speaking it has been successful, more so than the gold standard. It's true that sometimes states fail, but that's not something a monetary system can prevent from happening, or insure against.
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13. immibis ◴[] No.44471029{4}[source]
And the Bitcoin blockchain is just another state, with just another monetary system, which you can diversify into or not, and it can fail or not.
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14. lottin ◴[] No.44471189{5}[source]
A blockchain is not a state. A state is a political entity that rules a territory through the monopoly of violence.
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15. ur-whale ◴[] No.44471376[source]
Your definition of "worthiness" is entirely flawed. It seems to be base on some random economics textbook definition of "value".

I am getting tired of repeating the exact same thing on HN, but TL;DR:

    . there is no such thing as intrinsic value, it is a fundamentally flawed concept.

    . the only reliable tenet in economics (as in: having always be observed to work) is the law of supply and demand, which "value" derives from: if demand>supply, value appears. End of story.

    . why there is demand in the first place is a many-colored and complex affair, which economist recurrently (and predictably) fail to analyze and forecast.
replies(1): >>44471584 #
16. notahacker ◴[] No.44471549{3}[source]
Countries like Zimbabwe and Venezuela printed those currencies in vast quantities to pay bills instead of raising [most of] that money through taxes. Taxes owed in previous quarters were worthless compared with the new trillion dollar notes Zimbabwe's central bank issues to pay government officials, and most private transactions were black market so they weren't seeing them returned in taxes. Zimbabwe and Venezuela are the defining example of how a currency which isn't backed by mountains of debt and taxes is reliant entirely on speculators' confidence...
17. lottin ◴[] No.44471584{3}[source]
Asset pricing theory is a well established field within economics. Of course it comes down, in the end, to the law of supply and demand, but that doesn't mean that we have to stop here. The law of supply and demand doesn't explain why there's a supply and a demand in the first place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_pricing

18. samdoesnothing ◴[] No.44471837{4}[source]
Leaving the gold standard has been so successful, as evidenced by the inflation crisis leading to rising cost of living and housing shortages in every western country.
replies(1): >>44471974 #
19. samdoesnothing ◴[] No.44471864{4}[source]
No, according to their theory a coin can be valued for its intrinsic properties, not that it will be.
20. lrhegeba ◴[] No.44471943[source]
My house also doesnt generate cash flow/interest by itself, must have an intrinsic value of zero. Surprisingly it can be used as collateral for a loan as long as other people assign a (however disputable) value to it. So, of course you could be right when all (not just you) other people decide that BTC has a value of zero. Meanwhile i use my BTCs as collateral. Value is more of a social judgment, not a law of nature. Hence the misconception?
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21. lottin ◴[] No.44471974{5}[source]
Inflation and a rise in the cost of living are different things. Inflation means an increase in the (nominal) price level, whereas the cost of living is measured in real prices, specifically real wages.
22. lottin ◴[] No.44472000{3}[source]
Houses do generate income, called "rent". Either you rent out your property and get paid an explicit rent, or you live in the house in which case you get paid in kind. So, bad example!
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23. FabHK ◴[] No.44472168{3}[source]
A fiat currency is indeed just an accounting unit, but it has some floor against falling to zero, as it can legally extinguish any debt, and is needed to pay taxes.

Even so, sometimes they fall to basically zero. What chance does crypto have when sentiment turns against it?

24. FabHK ◴[] No.44472179[source]
> Money only works if you believe it will still work tomorrow.

Yeah. When crypto goes down, it'll be epic.

> If govs are good, then crypto degenerates to just a slower system for transactions.

That's how I see crypto: an inefficient and ill-regulated substitute for money, though suitable for crime. If governments turn bad, stable money is just one tiny part of the problem.

25. tasuki ◴[] No.44472612{4}[source]
Agreed. How much future cash flow does a kilogram of gold generate?

Gold has very little "intrinsic" (industrial) value. Most of its value is pure speculation. Would you say gold and bitcoin are rather similar then?

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26. immibis ◴[] No.44472867{6}[source]
https://write.as/no-time-like-tomorrow/a-blockchain-is-a-sta...
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27. lottin ◴[] No.44472963{5}[source]
Like bitcoin, gold is too a "bubble asset", but unlike bitcoin, gold is a physical object with use value and limited availability.

The thing about gold is that its price appears to to be negatively correlated with the economic cycle. Because of this some people argue that it makes sense to include it in a portfolio of stocks and bonds, so that the volatility of the portfolio is reduced, although personally I would advise against it.

28. lottin ◴[] No.44473814{7}[source]
Sorry to say, but you're deluded. A blockchain is made of "information". Information has no coercive power. A blockchain can't enforce laws. It can't stop illegitimate violence. It can't perform any of the functions of a state. Not even remotely.
29. nwienert ◴[] No.44475446{4}[source]
I mean i mentioned its volatility has gone down.

People use stablecoins as well for the same reasons. Shitcoins are different.