←back to thread

Sleeping beauty Bitcoin wallets wake up after 14 years to the tune of $2B

(www.marketwatch.com)
191 points aorloff | 4 comments | 04 Jul 25 18:41 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
Show context
andy99 ◴[04 Jul 25 20:52 UTC] No.44467803[source]▶
Most interesting to me is that people are worried about a $2B transaction moving the market.

How does that compare to the market depth of actual currencies or commodities? BTC, being objectively worthless, must be much more sensitive to people wanting to sell I'd expect.

replies(3): >>44467823 #>>44471162 #>>44471344 #
bboygravity ◴[04 Jul 25 20:55 UTC] No.44467823[source]▶
How is BTC objectively worthless (I'm guessing you mean "intrinsicly worthlesss"?) as opposed to USD or other major currencies?
replies(3): >>44467871 #>>44467957 #>>44470660 #
lottin ◴[05 Jul 25 07:01 UTC] No.44470660[source]▶
The expected discounted value of all bitcoin's future cash flows is zero. This is because the only cash flow that a bitcoin investor can expect from an investment in bitcoins is the revenue from selling the bitcoins in the market... and the market value of something that has no use case and is held for speculative purposes only (i.e. has no intrinsic value) will tend to zero in the long run.

A fiat currency that is issued by the government has no intrinsic value either, but there's one crucial difference compared to a cryptocurrency: in the case of a government-issued fiat currency the central bank will intervene the market, by making use of its prerogative to conduct monetary policy, to ensure price of the currency doesn't drop to zero.

replies(3): >>44470717 #>>44471376 #>>44471943 #
1. lrhegeba ◴[05 Jul 25 11:21 UTC] No.44471943[source]▶
My house also doesnt generate cash flow/interest by itself, must have an intrinsic value of zero. Surprisingly it can be used as collateral for a loan as long as other people assign a (however disputable) value to it. So, of course you could be right when all (not just you) other people decide that BTC has a value of zero. Meanwhile i use my BTCs as collateral. Value is more of a social judgment, not a law of nature. Hence the misconception?
replies(1): >>44472000 #
2. lottin ◴[05 Jul 25 11:34 UTC] No.44472000[source]▶
Houses do generate income, called "rent". Either you rent out your property and get paid an explicit rent, or you live in the house in which case you get paid in kind. So, bad example!
replies(1): >>44472612 #
3. tasuki ◴[05 Jul 25 13:18 UTC] No.44472612[source]▶
Agreed. How much future cash flow does a kilogram of gold generate?

Gold has very little "intrinsic" (industrial) value. Most of its value is pure speculation. Would you say gold and bitcoin are rather similar then?

replies(1): >>44472963 #
4. lottin ◴[05 Jul 25 14:15 UTC] No.44472963{3}[source]▶
Like bitcoin, gold is too a "bubble asset", but unlike bitcoin, gold is a physical object with use value and limited availability.

The thing about gold is that its price appears to to be negatively correlated with the economic cycle. Because of this some people argue that it makes sense to include it in a portfolio of stocks and bonds, so that the volatility of the portfolio is reduced, although personally I would advise against it.