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The $25k car is going extinct?

(media.hubspot.com)
319 points pseudolus | 23 comments | | HN request time: 0.636s | source | bottom
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snovymgodym ◴[] No.44414559[source]
It's pretty simple (in the US, can't speak for elsewhere).

There are 2 big factors at play:

1. Margins. Manufacturers make huge margins on expensive vehicles and very slim margins on cheap vehicles. The numbers differ, but I think even in the lead up to the 2008 crisis automakers had to sell 5-10 "econobox" cars to make the profit they made on one luxury car, SUV, or truck.

2. Normalization of debt. For many Americans, having a monthly car payment in perpetuity is considered acceptable. Car loans have their place and can be used responsibly, but due to marketing, sales tactics, and cultural sensibilities what often ends up happening is that people start from a monthly dollar amount and then work forwards to buy the most expensive vehicle they can, even if it means taking the loan term out to 72 or 84 months. It's also very normal for people to never pay off their car, instead trading in the vehicle after 3-5 years and rolling equity in the loan over to their next car. Obviously, this consumer habit is great for dealers, manufacturers, creditors and buyers of consumer debt, as well as the US Government and investors -- it's just not ideal for the consumers themselves if they're trying to preserve wealth and build savings.

These two factors create an environment increasingly hostile to the cheap entry level car. Consumer demand is low since most don't spend responsibly, and automakers don't really want to make or sell them because the margins are so slim.

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1. JKCalhoun ◴[] No.44418250[source]
I think the cost of a car is a huge drag on the upward mobility on the lower income earners in the U.S.
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2. roxolotl ◴[] No.44418387[source]
100%. And it doesn’t help that large cars as a cultural touchstone/status symbol really took off. Even if a $25k car existed most people wouldn’t buy it(even if they “should”).
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3. SJC_Hacker ◴[] No.44418448[source]
Because they are buying new and financing it
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4. kevin_thibedeau ◴[] No.44418687[source]
So do the cost of cigarettes and alcohol. Things they burn a larger proportion of their money on than higher earners.
replies(1): >>44418733 #
5. kevin_thibedeau ◴[] No.44418698[source]
The base Ford Maverick just edged over $25K for 2024. Now it's $26K. It's not a "real truck" but considerably larger than any econobox.
replies(1): >>44419019 #
6. darth_avocado ◴[] No.44418733[source]
False equivalence. You can do without cigarettes and alcohol, but not without cars in majority of the United States. Only about 10% of the adults smoke vs car ownership in American households is 90% with almost 40% owning more than one car. Comparing what you necessity with a discretionary expense isn’t fair.
replies(1): >>44420633 #
7. usefulcat ◴[] No.44419019{3}[source]
Maybe it's the exception that proves the rule?
8. zoklet-enjoyer ◴[] No.44419217[source]
I'll have my 2020 Subaru Impreza paid off in a couple months. That was just under $24k. I don't think the price has gone up much on the Impreza in the last 5 years.
9. JKCalhoun ◴[] No.44419391[source]
Article suggests the Maverick was selling quite well when it was below $25K. Dealers marked it up.
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10. JKCalhoun ◴[] No.44419399[source]
New car prices affect used car prices. I've been in the market for a used car for my daughter, and the prices on used are crazy as well.
replies(1): >>44419452 #
11. BobaFloutist ◴[] No.44419452{3}[source]
I mean what's a 10-year-old Prius in passable condition cost? It can't be that bad, surely?
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12. Marsymars ◴[] No.44419633{3}[source]
It’s still selling quite well.
13. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44419729[source]
Well, the used car market has also been decimated

Cash For Clunkers took a ton of used vehicles off the market

Stricter environmental standards have also taken otherwise working cars off the market, by preventing used dealerships from selling them in general, and making it more difficult/more expensive to insure them

The days of buying a used car for 2 grand are long gone

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14. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44419751{4}[source]
https://www.edmunds.com/toyota/prius/2015/

10 grand it seems? That's pretty rough, especially with that mileage

replies(1): >>44424837 #
15. shrubble ◴[] No.44419883{3}[source]
Also many used cars end up in eg Guatemala where the lower cost of labor means that fixing cars is cheaper.
16. dagw ◴[] No.44420633{3}[source]
Comparing what you necessity with a discretionary expense isn’t fair.

A car might be necessity, but spending more than say $15-20k max on a (second hand) car is a discretionary expenses for the vast majority of people doing so.

17. sofixa ◴[] No.44421036[source]
I think the bigger issue is the need for a car. In most of the US, everything is built with the assumption you'll be driving to it (workplaces, stores, facilities, etc).

So everyone has to have a car. So your social mobility is limited by the fact that you need to have the money for the expenses that go with it in the first place.

3-4 cities with decent to good transit are the exception, but the fact that they're so desirable and with such high housing prices means that they aren't really accessible either.

18. potato3732842 ◴[] No.44421888{3}[source]
Cash for Clunkers was important not because of the volume of cars it took off the market but because price points are sticky.

Before C4C garbage cars that ran but probably needed something were "I want it gone, $500". After C4C the same vehicles sold at the C4C price and the price point has more or less stuck. It completely turned the beater car market upside down.

19. BobaFloutist ◴[] No.44424837{5}[source]
That's a little steep, but you gotta grade mileage on a curve -- if it's reasonably maintained, it'll keep trucking for a lot longer than that, it should be plenty for a starter car. I mean, I'm biased, since I drive a (very well maintained when I bought it, high mileage) 2007 Prius that I bought for ~7.5k...8, 9 years ago? and I'm still getting ~40mpg and it survived some pretty questionable maintenance and care on my part.

10 grand feels steep, but for a solid car that'll easily last another ten years with minimal maintenance, good fuel economy, I don't know that you can do much better these days, and it doesn't feel unreasonable.

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20. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44425834{6}[source]
> I don't know that you can do much better these days, and it doesn't feel unreasonable

It's pretty unreasonable as a class of "starter car" though

I can't imagine many teens working a min wage job for a summer and having a car afterwards if they cost like this

replies(1): >>44426537 #
21. BobaFloutist ◴[] No.44426537{7}[source]
Oh, sure, I was thinking of a car relatively comfortable parents could get a kid without overspending or spoiling too much, it's not super in reach for a kid working part time.
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22. bluefirebrand ◴[] No.44430631{8}[source]
Even expecting parents to buy the car for their kid is kinda weird to me really

I had to get my own job and save to buy my own first car. It was 2k

If it had been 10k it would have taken forever to afford on part time minimum wage

My parents definitely did not have a spare 10k laying around to buy me a car. And if a family has more than one child, then what?

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23. BobaFloutist ◴[] No.44434298{9}[source]
Sure, totally. I was perhaps assuming a certain level of affluence from a HN commenter discussing buying a car for their daughter, but it's true that I described a heavily used premium economy car rather than the complete "at-least-it-starts" clunker that represents the actual bottom of the market.