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93 points nabla9 | 60 comments | | HN request time: 1.619s | source | bottom
1. stormfather ◴[] No.44088898[source]
I've never understood what the real reason we invaded was. I just know it wasn't what we said, or oil.
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2. IncreasePosts ◴[] No.44088923[source]
Saddam tried to kill g dub's daddy
3. mycatisblack ◴[] No.44088932[source]
I remember things sped up shortly after Saddam became vocal about having his oil paid in euros.
4. Retric ◴[] No.44088946[source]
Ego? Bush Jr trying to surpass his father isn’t particularly far fetched.

The signal war plans leak shows decisions for these kinds of things aren’t necessarily particularly well thought out.

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5. mrkeen ◴[] No.44089002[source]
Good polling perhaps? Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 (and allegedly the actual vote), but won in 2004.

Or maybe it was just Cheney's idea to funnel money to himself via Halliburton.

6. dragonwriter ◴[] No.44089003[source]
A US invasion, occupation, and political reformation of Iraq to serve as a lever for a pro-US series of regime changes in the Middle East were central ideas of the Project for a New American Century, from which the Bush Administration drew heavily for its defense and foreign policy officials (as well as VP.)
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7. motorest ◴[] No.44089018[source]
> I've never understood what the real reason we invaded was.

Wikipedia has a pretty good summary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_to_the_Iraq_War

8. ekianjo ◴[] No.44089021[source]
The more wars the more special interest groups make money.
9. Synaesthesia ◴[] No.44089058[source]
It's imperialism. The US has traditionally dominated the Middle East region and it's big enemy is independence and nationalism. It wants countries that are willing to obey. So they made an example of a disobedient country, which may set an example for others if successful.
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10. arp242 ◴[] No.44089124[source]
There was the notion in certain (neo)conservative circles throughout the 90s that toppling Saddam really would be the trigger for a democratic wave throughout the middle east, kind of like an "Arab spring". This would benefit everyone in a kind of win-win situation: the US would have fewer enemies, and the people living there would benefit because freedom and democracy is good.

The "weapons of mass destruction" was kind of used as a pretext because they didn't believe such an argument would win popular support. It's somewhat abstract and rooted in a kind of ideology rather than pragmatism. They also genuinely believed that Saddam did have weapons of mass destructions, but just couldn't prove it. They would be found after invasion. Just a little white lie in the meanwhile.

That's really all there's to it. People get all cynical about "freedom and democracy", but that really was the goal, as a kind of "enlightened self-interest". After 9/11 this only became more acute: with the middle east part of the liberal hegemony, there would be no more Al-Qaeda (or they would be severely weakened).

Because they lied about the pretext, there was little to no broad discussion about any of this so they just operated in their ideological echo chamber. There was no one to really point out this entire notion was perhaps well-intentioned but also rather misguided and ignorant (to say nothing of the execution, which was profoundly misguided and ignorant).

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11. aeve890 ◴[] No.44089158[source]
This sounds to good to be true. Neoconservatives pushing for freedom, democracy, enlightened self-interest? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
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12. xbmcuser ◴[] No.44089165[source]
A large part of it was oil and keeping control on oil prices. People seem to forget that without the discovery of cheap way of fracking US would have required large amounts of oil to keep its economy growing and any kind of power in the region that could disrupt its oil supply had to be removed.
13. bongodongobob ◴[] No.44089173[source]
No one actually thought or thinks that. It's about control of that region. All they want are figureheads that play nice with American business. That's always been the goal.
14. moomin ◴[] No.44089178[source]
But you see, this was a bigger crime than the invasion. Because it was ideologically driven on faith, no-one was looking at the actual facts. The US military could knock over Hussein, no problem, but no-one had any plan for what happened next. No state-building, not even a plan for how the civil service was going to work. Absolutely no plan to win over hearts and minds and not create the next generation of extremists. No-one checking prisoners were treated with respect.

The Iraq invasion was wrong, but the occupation was worse.

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15. arp242 ◴[] No.44089205{3}[source]
I'm just explaining what the thought process was that lead up to the invasion.

But yes, I broadly agree with you. Although I'm somewhat sceptical you can do this kind of state-building imposed from the outside in the first place though. But if you must do it, then the way the US went about it was clearly the wrong way.

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16. arp242 ◴[] No.44089234{3}[source]
It's well documented. I'm not going to spend ages finding citations because this is a HN comment and not a scientific paper.

If you prefer to live in the psychological simplicity and safety of "neocons do evil because they're {evil,greedy,powerhungry,...}" or whatever then you're free to do so. But at that point you've also disqualified yourself from serious discussion.

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17. somenameforme ◴[] No.44089236[source]
This is 100% it, but this goes far beyond just Bush or Iraq. If you ever want to understand what's really happening in US geopolitics, their paper, Rebuilding America's Defenses [1], is critical reading. It describes every motivation, goal, and purpose with 0 effort to fluff it up for public. This absolutely transcends parties as well. It is the position of the US political establishment. For instance Robert Kagan is the founder of the Project for the New American Century and his wife is Victoria Nuland who served as deputy head of state under Biden.

It's not easy to give cliff notes, because there's too much to say. But in general, this was at the time when the USSR had still only relatively recently fallen and the US was not only essentially the king of the world, but had 0 meaningful competition for said claim. The goal of PNAC, and of the US political establishment, was to take this scenario, expand it, and perpetuate it. So the primary point was to prevent the rise of any other power and to essentially dominate the world primarily through being seen as the unquestioned premier military power, which would entail dramatic increases in military spending, regular demonstrations of power including preemptive and unilateral attacks on other countries if necessary, and so forth, wrapped in a tidy package of 'spreading democracy and freedom.'

Most famously they acknowledged that all of their goals would be quite difficult without, in their own words, something like a new Pearl Harbor: "Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event—like a new Pearl Harbor." 9/11 happened less than a year later, and everything went into overdrive, a trend that continued long after Bush was but a fading memory.

[1] - https://archive.org/details/RebuildingAmericasDefenses

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18. candlemas ◴[] No.44089259[source]
There were a few reasons but an important one is that Cheney, Wolfowitz, and Rumsfeld were convinced by Laurie Mylroie that Iraq really had something to do with 9/11 and everybody in the administration was paranoid about another attack. Wolfowitz also felt guilty about the George H. W. Bush administration abandoning the Shiites. All of them (except maybe Powell and Armitage) already disliked Iraq, felt like the first war was unfinished business, and didn't need much prodding to go after Saddam but the 9/11 connection they thought existed gave it urgency. Ultimately it came down to Bush and he probably thought it sounded like a good idea and not for any particular reason.
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19. 4ndrewl ◴[] No.44089287[source]
Keystone for the Project for the New American Century. The problem is that the people who write this dross think they're in the same league as Plato or Hulme or Rousseau but they're barely above Sesame Street levels.

Project 2025 is this generation's equivalent and will be equally as successful.

20. poncho_romero ◴[] No.44089337{4}[source]
They aren’t “evil” but the actions of the West in the Middle East have always been about capital despite being dressed up in the language of freedom and democracy. I would recommend the later parts of The Silk Roads by Peter Frankopan for a broad overview of this dichotomy.
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21. amanaplanacanal ◴[] No.44089363{3}[source]
If I remember right, Bush ran on the idea that the US should not do nation building. So I guess he was just being true to his values? Maybe he thought Iraq would self-organize into something better.

Just another example of hubris. Then he got re-elected, which still blows my mind.

22. moomin ◴[] No.44089369{4}[source]
I think your scepticism is justified. Reading about Germany invasion the 1950s suggests it didn’t go massively well there. But they didn’t even try.
23. rixed ◴[] No.44089572[source]
Irak, with it's stable government, large population, large army inherited from the war with Iran, and natural resources, was a strong political player in the middle east, and not quite aligned with the USA (for instance, being able and willing to threaten its closer ally Israel).

So maybe the reason was just the desire to clip those wings?

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24. rich_sasha ◴[] No.44089668[source]
Methods aside, it is funny how quickly Republicans went from "we want to rule the whole world" to "we want nothing to do with the world and btw, foreigners get out".
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25. brookst ◴[] No.44089895{3}[source]
Now they just want to annex Canada and Greenland, and hand over the US’s role in UN, WHO, and economic development to China.
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26. djohnston ◴[] No.44090140[source]
IMO that's unlikely. For all his faults he doesn't seem particularly egotistical. He was more likely manipulated by Cheney and the MIC and probably as shell-shocked after 9/11 as the rest of us. Dumb war; dumber pretence; not a dick-measuring contest with his dad.
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27. Retric ◴[] No.44090897{3}[source]
I don’t think anyone runs for the presidency without a major ego, but we may disagree with what ego means.
28. HaZeust ◴[] No.44091262{3}[source]
Solid comment. The more I read into these geopolitical pretexts, the more I think the U.S. government didn't orchestrate 9/11 - but that they allowed it to happen.
29. swat535 ◴[] No.44091710{4}[source]
How realistic is the idea of the U.S. annexing Canada, and what would that even look like in practice?

Is there any historical, legal, or strategic precedent that would make this even remotely feasible? And given the likely short political shelf life of the current U.S. administration, would any of this outlast the next four years anyway?

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30. throw310822 ◴[] No.44091840{4}[source]
> I'm just explaining what the thought process was that lead up to the invasion

Are you sure you explained the thought process, or you just explained the justifications and the propaganda in support for a plan that had different purposes? Because of course if you need to convince an entire country (including its politicians and intelligentsia) to start a war, handwaving things such as "democracy", "domino effect" and spreading fears about WMDs is an obvious strategy.

31. throw310822 ◴[] No.44091874[source]
It's such a coincidence that Israel is a prosperous (and very aggressive) country and all its neighbours either keep a very low profile or are reduced to rubble... By the US, and all for the sake of democracy of course.
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32. washadjeffmad ◴[] No.44091946[source]
You'd have to understand everything from a century before the formation of the Baath Party to how Saddam consolidated power in spite of global efforts to destabilize the people of the region for Western gain from WW1 until the 1980s.

He was both a horror and a blight on a long spanning intelligence effort that intersected with the storied history of Anglo interaction with the "Musselmen" empire.

Long story short, you can't without a Muslim perspective.

33. iJohnDoe ◴[] No.44091963[source]
Cheney. Halliburton. Money for everyone involved. Bush and Cheney had to pay back the cronies that got them elected.
34. mandmandam ◴[] No.44092036{5}[source]
> They aren’t “evil”

I'm not sure I understand this. If mass murder, propaganda, war crimes, atrocities, torture, money laundering, drug & people trafficking, etc aren't literally evil - just 'normal Western capital' stuff - then what do you call evil?

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35. poncho_romero ◴[] No.44092111{6}[source]
I don’t mean to come across as an apologist, what has been done and continues to happen is abhorrent. I prefer not to use terms like “good” and “evil” because they collapse so much complexity and nuance into emotionally charged terms. So when I say “they aren’t evil” I mean they didn’t commit these crimes against humanity because they’re akin to comic book villains, but rather because of ideology, humanity’s affinity for greed, etc.
36. nova22033 ◴[] No.44092172[source]
My personal opinion: W thought it would be easy and there would be little to no cost.
37. brookst ◴[] No.44093435{5}[source]
No, it’s all somewhere between bluster and fantasy. But it speaks to the US oligarchs’ mindset.
38. const_cast ◴[] No.44093562{4}[source]
The way you do it is covertly and from afar. You need the people to think they wanted their own revolution. It's what we do today and in the past across Africa. Soft-colonialism just works better.

Turns out, if you come in with guns and start making demands the people will hate you. And you need the people. The people aren't just the dudes living in a country - they are the country.

39. MaxPock ◴[] No.44093711{3}[source]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfowitz_Doctrine
40. MaxPock ◴[] No.44093794[source]
The removal of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent destabilization of Iraq can be seen as a highly successful strategic project—if viewed through the lens of geopolitical interests rather than official narratives.

It effectively eliminated Israel’s most significant regional threat and dismantled a key unifying figure for the Sunni Arab world.

Unlike other Sunni regimes that had largely aligned with American and Israeli interests, Saddam remained defiant.

The publicly stated reasons for the invasion—WMDs, democracy promotion, and anti-terrorism—were largely smokescreens meant to pacify public opinion, obscure the true motives, and keep people distracted and divided.

41. toyg ◴[] No.44094166{5}[source]
I mean, historical precedents for land grabs abound, but after the 1918 Wilson Doctrine (a US creation, btw) there is nothing. Colonialism is over and blatant imperialism doesn't work; we hold this as self-evident truth.

Then again, certain governments continue to act like we were still in the XIX century so "might makes right" (Russia, Israel, China, Morocco, Turkey...). If one is not ashamed to be in such an esteemed company, everything is possible.

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42. dragonwriter ◴[] No.44094192{3}[source]
That those things are goals, and that they should be achieved through an aggressive interventionist foreign policy, are the defining pillars of neoconservatism.
43. jemmyw ◴[] No.44094235[source]
> The US has traditionally dominated the Middle East

Not really and not for long enough to say traditionally. It's way more traditional for the British and French to be poking their noses into the region.

44. shrubble ◴[] No.44094240[source]
It's called the Oded Yinon Plan, or just the Yinon Plan - the idea is for a certain list of countries to be weakened, while assisting Israel in becoming a regional superpower (Israel will be militarily dominant by having a strong army and then weakening other countries' armies).
45. Andaith ◴[] No.44094714{3}[source]
I thought this was all history, but:

> Develop and deploy global MISSILE DEFENSES to defend the American homeland and American allies, and to provide a secure basis for U.S. power projection around the world.

> Control the new “international commons” of space and “cyberspace,” and pave the way for the creation of a new military service - U.S. Space Forces - with the mission of space control.

They really just kept at it, huh. Although this part is interesting:

> The Joint Strike Fighter, with limited capabilities and significant technical risk, is a roadblock to future transformation and a sink-hole for needed defense funds.

Wonder why it wasn't cancelled then? Change of mind, or just too many greased palms?

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46. burnt-resistor ◴[] No.44094718[source]
W wanted "righteous revenge" for 9/11 and Cheney wanted profits from military contracts. Those were the most direct interests. (Phantom) WMDs, human rights, and oil were the other oblique excuses. Reaffirmation of the supremacy of American imperialism was another purpose. It lead to $10T of wasted treasure and 500k lives snuffed out for the egos and ambitions of foolish and crooked leaders.
47. jokoon ◴[] No.44094727[source]
Maybe the war on terror required to have a foothold in the middle east.

The us was not going to invade Iran or Saudi Arabia. Fighting militias is difficult.

Having troops there allowed to get the enemy (jihadists) where it was, so troops would serve as a lightning rod.

Iraq was probably the place that was the easiest to invade without to many consequences, where nobody would cry about Saddam going away.

I'm trying to see what strategy it was, of course geopolitics are ugly.

48. janalsncm ◴[] No.44095179{6}[source]
Given that this is about the invasion of Iraq, I wouldn’t exclude the US from that list.
49. umbra07 ◴[] No.44095496{3}[source]
Lebanon and Jordan keep low profiles and/or rubble? And if you go beyond that, SA, Qatar, and the UAE keep low profiles and/or rubble?
50. umbra07 ◴[] No.44095520{3}[source]
"Oh and look, the guy's a Jew! It all makes sense now!

Hey, why are people calling me anti-semitic?"

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51. looofooo0 ◴[] No.44095567{4}[source]
Meanwhile, they outsourced manufacturing to China, which is kind of insane. China builds 100x ships then the US. Add drones, steel, telecommunication, batteries, renewable to it...
52. like_any_other ◴[] No.44096309{4}[source]
You want me to pretend the state of Israel has nothing to do with Jews?
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53. umbra07 ◴[] No.44097656{5}[source]
You implied that an American citizen was being unfaithful to the motherland, on the basis of him being a Jew.
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54. michael1999 ◴[] No.44098399{5}[source]
Recent history tells that once one moron US president decides to start an illegal war, both parties are happy to continue it for a couple of decades.
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55. michael1999 ◴[] No.44098433[source]
Cheney and Rumsfeld had a history of paranoid fantasies going back to their Team B fake "missile gap" work in the 70s.

Both of them knew how to work the DC machine, but neither of them were ever bothered by little things like "facts". I don't think we'll ever know what they really believed.

56. ajb ◴[] No.44098577[source]
Politicians were the first vibe coders.
57. ben_w ◴[] No.44099390{5}[source]
> How realistic is the idea of the U.S. annexing Canada, and what would that even look like in practice?

They've tried twice already, the second time the Canadians (/British at the time) burned down the White House: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burning_of_Washington

58. jazzyjackson ◴[] No.44102887{4}[source]
Re: joint strike fighter: the money pit is essentially a subsidy for many sitting congressmens’ re election campaigns.
59. michael1999 ◴[] No.44108371{6}[source]
Iraq is a country: - with 45 million people - speaking languages other than english - a quarter of the way around the world - next to Iran and Turkey who could spoil US operations

And Bush still destroyed it with ease. The idea that the USA couldn't annex Canada by force is just silly.

We'd fight, and slit your throats in the dark. But there are some of us who'd just roll over, or welcome you with open arms. Just look at the morons in Alberta talking USA annexation -- they're probably 10% of the population. That's enough for a Quisling regime.

60. subpixel ◴[] No.44122481[source]
Also, there was palpable excitement in the media and everyone wanted to be a part of the big story.

I was in the offices of WNET/Channel 13 in Manhattan the day the news began moving among insiders that an invasion of Iraq was imminent. All these middle aged producers were stoked. If that was PBS you can only imagine what the vibe was like everywhere else.

Of course within a week people like this and their reporters were basically competing to get “embedded” with invading troops and tell an approved story. Wild times.