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The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

(garymarcus.substack.com)
129 points NotInOurNames | 9 comments | 22 May 25 17:37 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source | bottom
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airocker ◴[22 May 25 18:08 UTC] No.44064897[source]▶
I want to bet 10 million that this won’t happen if anyone wants to go against my position. Best bet ever. If i lose, i don’t have to pay anyways.
replies(4): >>44064974 #>>44065011 #>>44065018 #>>44066174 #
1. thatguysaguy ◴[22 May 25 18:14 UTC] No.44064974[source]▶
Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.
replies(4): >>44064997 #>>44065043 #>>44065263 #>>44065543 #
2. throwanem ◴[22 May 25 18:16 UTC] No.44064997[source]▶
Assuming you can find them. If I took a bet like that you'd have a hell of a time finding me!

(I'm sure serious, or "serious," people who actually construct these bets of course require the "world still here" payout be escrowed. Still.)

replies(1): >>44065485 #
3. rienbdj ◴[22 May 25 18:19 UTC] No.44065043[source]▶
How can you work around if you don’t have millions upfront?
4. Joker_vD ◴[22 May 25 18:40 UTC] No.44065263[source]▶
This is such an obviously bad idea; I've heard anecdotes of embezzlement cases where investigation took more than e.g. 5 years, and when it was finally established that yes, the funds really were embezzled and they went after the perpetrator, it turned out that the guy had died a year before due to all of the excesses he spent the money on.

I mean, if you talk from the position of someone who doesn't believe that the world will end soon.

5. spencerflem ◴[22 May 25 19:00 UTC] No.44065485[source]▶
If you escrow the World Still Exists payment you lose the benefit of having the World Ends payment immediately.
replies(1): >>44065518 #
6. throwanem ◴[22 May 25 19:03 UTC] No.44065518{3}[source]▶
Yeah, it isn't a kind of bet that makes any sense except as a conversation starter. Imagine needing to pay so much money for one of those!
7. radicalcentrist ◴[22 May 25 19:04 UTC] No.44065543[source]▶
I still don't get how this is supposed to work. So let's say I give you a million dollars right now, with the expectation that I get $10M back in 10 years when the world hasn't ended. You obviously wanted the money up front because you're going to live it up while the world's still spinning. So how am I getting my payout after you've spent it all on hookers and blow?
replies(1): >>44065707 #
8. thatguysaguy ◴[22 May 25 19:18 UTC] No.44065707[source]▶
Yeah I wouldn't make a deal like this with someone who is operating in bad faith... The cases I've seen of this are between public intellectuals with relatively modest amounts of money.
replies(1): >>44066322 #
9. radicalcentrist ◴[22 May 25 20:09 UTC] No.44066322{3}[source]▶
Well that's what I don't get, how is spending the money bad faith? Aren't they getting the money ahead of time so they can spend it before the world ends? If they have to keep the world-still-here money tied up in escrow I don't see why they would take the deal.