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The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

(garymarcus.substack.com)
129 points NotInOurNames | 1 comments | 22 May 25 17:37 UTC | HN request time: 0s | source
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airocker ◴[22 May 25 18:08 UTC] No.44064897[source]▶
I want to bet 10 million that this won’t happen if anyone wants to go against my position. Best bet ever. If i lose, i don’t have to pay anyways.
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thatguysaguy ◴[22 May 25 18:14 UTC] No.44064974[source]▶
Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.
replies(4): >>44064997 #>>44065043 #>>44065263 #>>44065543 #
1. Joker_vD ◴[22 May 25 18:40 UTC] No.44065263[source]▶
This is such an obviously bad idea; I've heard anecdotes of embezzlement cases where investigation took more than e.g. 5 years, and when it was finally established that yes, the funds really were embezzled and they went after the perpetrator, it turned out that the guy had died a year before due to all of the excesses he spent the money on.

I mean, if you talk from the position of someone who doesn't believe that the world will end soon.