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The "AI 2027" Scenario: How realistic is it?

(garymarcus.substack.com)
129 points NotInOurNames | 1 comments | 22 May 25 17:37 UTC | HN request time: 0.001s | source
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airocker ◴[22 May 25 18:08 UTC] No.44064897[source]▶
I want to bet 10 million that this won’t happen if anyone wants to go against my position. Best bet ever. If i lose, i don’t have to pay anyways.
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thatguysaguy ◴[22 May 25 18:14 UTC] No.44064974[source]▶
Some people do actually have end of the world bets out but you have to structure it differently. What you do is the person who thinks the world will end is paid cash right now, and then in N years when the world hasn't ended they have to pay back some multiple of the amount the original amount.
replies(4): >>44064997 #>>44065043 #>>44065263 #>>44065543 #
throwanem ◴[22 May 25 18:16 UTC] No.44064997[source]▶
Assuming you can find them. If I took a bet like that you'd have a hell of a time finding me!

(I'm sure serious, or "serious," people who actually construct these bets of course require the "world still here" payout be escrowed. Still.)

replies(1): >>44065485 #
spencerflem ◴[22 May 25 19:00 UTC] No.44065485{3}[source]▶
If you escrow the World Still Exists payment you lose the benefit of having the World Ends payment immediately.
replies(1): >>44065518 #
1. throwanem ◴[22 May 25 19:03 UTC] No.44065518{4}[source]▶
Yeah, it isn't a kind of bet that makes any sense except as a conversation starter. Imagine needing to pay so much money for one of those!