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177 points belter | 2 comments | | HN request time: 0.592s | source
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melling ◴[] No.43621706[source]
“ And solar was the fastest-growing electricity source for the 20th year in a row.

It now provides 7% of the world's electricity”

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Night_Thastus ◴[] No.43622643[source]
The economics have shifted. It used to be that solar or wind were more experimental, and lacked any economies of scale. Their production was poor and less was known about how they fared in the long term.

Now, their prices have gone down, their generation per unit has gone up, and much more is known about how they behave long-term.

The world has a LOT of power generation. It will take time to replace. But with every time that some existing power generation source shuts down due to age, or expansion occurs somewhere, it will inevitably be done with solar/wind. It's just more cost effective now.

In the end it is not environmental concerns that will cause solar and wind to become commonplace. It's just economics. Slapping down something that generates power for 20-30 years with no input fuel is just way more economically feasible than anything that requires fuel. They still have maintenance costs, but it's nothing by comparison. They can completely undercut other sources of power.

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tracerbulletx ◴[] No.43623299[source]
Storage capacity on the grid will need to massively increase as well for solar to go much further.
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ZeroGravitas ◴[] No.43623767[source]
Solar is nowhere near hitting limits that will require storage to continue growth. Like it could double several more times globally and not require storage to still make sense to roll out more.

But, storage is already growing at a pace similar to solar because it's cheaper than the alternatives.

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zozbot234 ◴[] No.43623832[source]
The bulk of storage on the grid is just pumped hydro, everything else is literally a drop in the bucket. Some people like to make the argument that battery storage can grow enough to become relevant but that's just speculation, it hasn't happened so far.
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ZeroGravitas ◴[] No.43623994[source]
Global grid BESS has caught up on Hydro capacity (which is an ambiguous word in this domain i.e. the amount that can be delivered at any one instant).

It's absorbing a third of California's generation at solar peak and then delivering a third of demand in the evening.

The future is here, just not everywhere yet.

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AnthonyMouse ◴[] No.43627276[source]
It's still not clear how this is supposed to work for heating load.

Covering the incremental evening demand peak is one thing. Converting fuel oil and natural gas-based heating to electric and then covering the nighttime winter heating load in northern latitudes is something else entirely.

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1. ZeroGravitas ◴[] No.43627435[source]
Just repurposing that gas used for heating to generating electricity for heat pumps is a big step forward, delivering more heat for less gas and synergises well with wind and batteries which further reduce gas usage.

Gas boilers are now the leading source of NOx pollution in London since they've made so much progress on traffic sources.

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2. AnthonyMouse ◴[] No.43627484[source]
Well sure, but if the premise is that we're going to replace everything with solar and batteries, that one's the hard one.

Whereas heat pumps powered by nuclear reactors work pretty well, if you could get the cost of nuclear reactors under control by getting mass production going.