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388 points pseudolus | 46 comments | | HN request time: 3.026s | source | bottom
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Bukhmanizer ◴[] No.43485838[source]
I’m surprised not many people talk about this, but a big reason corporations are able to do layoffs is just that they’re doing less. At my work we used to have thousands of ideas of small improvements to make things better for our users. Now we have one: AI. It’s not that we’re using AI to make all these small improvements, or even planning on it. We’re just… not doing them. And I don’t think my experience is very unique.
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baazaa ◴[] No.43488436[source]
I think people need to get used to the idea that the West is just going backwards in capability. Go watch CGI in a movie theatre and it's worse than 20 years ago, go home to play video games and the new releases are all remasters of 20 year old games because no-one knows how to do anything any more. And these are industries which should be seeing the most progress, things are even worse in hard-tech at Boeing or whatever.

Whenever people see old systems still in production (say things that are over 30 years old) the assumption is that management refused to fund the replacement. But if you look at replacement projects so many of them are such dismal failures that's management's reluctance to engage in fixing stuff is understandable.

From the outside, decline always looks like a choice, because the exact form the decline takes was chosen. The issue is that all the choices are bad.

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1. Art9681 ◴[] No.43489570[source]
You're just getting older and looking at the past with rose colored glasses. No one is going backwards in capability. It is about how accessible and cheap the thing is. In the 90's, a license to install Maya or 3D Studio Max, or Lightwave was extremely expensive, those products were not promoted nor available to the general public. They would cost tens of thousands of dollars, for the software alone, not to mention the hardware.

Today it is a commodity. So we are flooded with low effort productions.

With that being said, we have more capability than ever, at the cheapest cost ever. Whether businesses use that wisely is a different story.

There will always be outliers. I see many comments with people who derived value from whatever they perceived as something uncommon and unique they could do. Now AI has made those skills a commodity. So they lose their motivation since it becomes harder to attain some sort of adoration.

In any case, going forward, no matter what, there will be those who adopt the new tools and use them passionately to create things that are above and beyond the average. And folks will be on HN reminiscing about those people, 30 years from now.

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2. yubblegum ◴[] No.43489580[source]
Boeing calls to say hello...
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3. Art9681 ◴[] No.43489725[source]
All I know is more often than not, when I travel by air, I am more than likely going to be in a Boeing aircraft. I also know more planes fly today than ever. So it is no surprise that in a hyper connected world where everyone with a phone and a camera can document every single failure in any service or product, that it would be perceived that things are going backwards. If we had this in the 80's or 90's it wouldn't be much different.

Did our quality and capability get worse or did everyone become a journalist that can document every flaw and distribute it globally in minutes?

Hmmm....

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4. yubblegum ◴[] No.43489749{3}[source]
Hmmm... OK, Airbus calls to say hi, too.
5. anon-3988 ◴[] No.43489779[source]
Yea lets take that flight with airplanes from 30 years ago shall we
replies(1): >>43490099 #
6. SR2Z ◴[] No.43489869[source]
This is an excellent example. The 737 used to crash a LOT MORE than it does now, and even the version with MCAS is a safer airplane than your average 1990s jetliner (which was also probably a 737, which is kind of my point)[1].

So it's a slightly less safe (in the grand scheme of things) airliner that's vastly more fuel efficient and cheaper to run than any in the past. Obviously this is of no comfort to the families of the people who died in the crash!

But to suggest that Boeing has somehow regressed decades in technical capabilities is just plain wrong.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incident...

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7. sidewndr46 ◴[] No.43490090{3}[source]
When you look at how type acceptance works, all Boeing planes are going to be a "737". When you actually look at the 737 MAX and compare it to earlier aircraft, it's pretty obvious that they've created a whole new aircraft. Hence MCAS trying to pretend like that didn't happen & dead people.
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8. bronco21016 ◴[] No.43490099{3}[source]
Check the registration on the next aircraft you take a ride on ;)

30 years may be a stretch but 20-25 certainly isn't.

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9. gcanyon ◴[] No.43490271{3}[source]
Thanks for that list/link. It's so easy to forget how awful the past was.
10. mitthrowaway2 ◴[] No.43490428[source]
But for example Toy Story (1995) had a budget of 30 million. Today's Disney box office flops have budgets closer to 250 million.
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11. ◴[] No.43490453{4}[source]
12. jkaptur ◴[] No.43490521[source]
I think that’s the rose colored glasses again. What made you choose Toy Story as an example rather than Waterworld or Cutthroat Island?
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13. mitthrowaway2 ◴[] No.43490584{3}[source]
Because the thread was discussing CG becoming a commodity and Toy Story was the first thing that popped into mind for 90s CG; I have a vague recollection that it was the first feature-length full-CG film.

I only checked its production budget while writing my comment.

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14. ipsum2 ◴[] No.43490692{4}[source]
You're illustrating his point, that you're using survivorship bias to cherrypick good CGI movies from the 90s.
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15. ◴[] No.43490712{4}[source]
16. somenameforme ◴[] No.43490728{4}[source]
Counter-intuitively this is especially true with international flights... The main stressor for a plane is not like a car, where it's miles driven/flown. Its in pressurization/depressurization. And so a plane doing domestic skips an hour or two away will wear out way faster than one doing transatlantic trips, and so you're more likely to see the shiny new plane on a short domestic trip than on a big international one.

Incidentally this also applies similarly to risk issues. The biggest risk in a flight is not in flying, but in takeoff/landing. This is why the commonly cited deaths/mile metric is not only misleading but completely disingenuous by the people/organizations that release it, knowing full well that the vast majority of people don't understand this. If some person replaced their car with a plane (and could somehow land/take off anywhere), their overall risk of death in transit would be significantly higher than if they were using e.g. a car. 'Air travel being safer than cars' relies on this misleading and meaningless death/miles statistic.

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17. somenameforme ◴[] No.43490760[source]
This is a tangent, but I don't think the cost of things like 3DS or Maya were ever major barriers to entry. They were widely available for 'free' download. I think the companies involved were basically using this as what would eventually become the modern 'free for entities with less than $xxx annual revenue' license as there was seemingly less than 0 effort to ever enforce their copyrights. To say nothing of the countless commercial books available for both, which simply would not have had a market if it was only selling to people who had real licenses for the software.
18. mitthrowaway2 ◴[] No.43490882{5}[source]
Actually, I picked the first CGI movie from the 90s, and it just happened to be good and very cheap.

But more importantly, the other half of my point was that $250 million ought to be enough to pay for a high effort production. It's not like "well Blender is free now so of course theatres are flooded with amateur CG films since their production has been commoditized".

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19. oxfordmale ◴[] No.43491284{3}[source]
The problem isn't that Boeing is less safe; it is that the company's culture shifted to the extent that technical staff could no longer report perceived safety issues.
20. laszlojamf ◴[] No.43491333{5}[source]
This is really interesting! Never thought of that. Do you have a source for these facts?
21. milesrout ◴[] No.43491521{6}[source]
But it wasn't very good. It was good for the time but if something of that quality came out today it would be a joke.
22. physicsguy ◴[] No.43491587{6}[source]
It was the first full CGI movie but others had been using it before that, Jurassic Park used a mix of CGI and puppets for e.g.
23. MaPi_ ◴[] No.43491747{5}[source]
Sure, replacing the car with a plane for your grocery shopping would be probably more dangerous, but do you have any data at what distances do the risks flip?

When I see those statistics I think about flights like Austria to Finland and I imagine that is indeed safer by plane.

24. ekianjo ◴[] No.43491879{6}[source]
30 millions was nowhere cheap in the 90s. I guess inflation makes things look this way.

In the same timeframe Jurassic Park cost twice more to make and it was a very expensive movie at the time.

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25. ekianjo ◴[] No.43491896{3}[source]
This is an excellent example of design failure. So in reality, yes, Boeing has regressed as 90s Boeing would never have released a plane like that.
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26. uppost ◴[] No.43491913{3}[source]
The market is very wrong if that's the case you can get rich easy buying BA at a discount. Please do!
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27. KvanteKat ◴[] No.43492406{7}[source]
Correcting for inflation (I used this tool by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm), 30M USD in nov. 1995 would have a purchasing power equivalent to roughly 62M USD in feb. 2025. This is below half the budget of Moana 2 (150M USD, released in nov. 2024) for instance.
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28. ◴[] No.43492833{7}[source]
29. ristos ◴[] No.43492934{5}[source]
There does seem to be a sort of sampling bias thing that I've only recently noticed, that I think does come from being older now. I started to get back into old retro games I used to play, and I can't help but realize how many games back then were really bad, like not worth playing at all, and I just cherry picked the good ones. And being older, I'm not into gaming anymore, or really much of a consumer at all besides essential goods, being younger you do consume more entertainment products, like games. So I think there's definitely some sampling bias going on here where things look like they're getting worse. Or it could be both things, like it could actually be getting worse, but also not as much as it looks like because of this sort of sampling bias thing. Like having to have multiple accounts, like a Switch account plus some special Switch account and/or another account to play a game, or you buy a game and then there's an online store as well, or you buy a game in person but you can't get a copy digitally, or you buy a digital copy and you can't get a physical copy made for you for a flat fee, or that increasingly people don't actually literally own things anymore and it's all subscriptions or some sort of permission to use, or that a lot of games are just remakes of older games, or that you can't play single player offline, or that you can't transfer or give your digital game that you "bought" and "own" to someone else (less it be a physical copy, obviously), etc.
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30. johnnyanmac ◴[] No.43492946[source]
If it's a commodity why is everything worse in quality? Commodification doesn't explain drop in objective metrics like performance, security, and complexity. It doesn't even explain the decline in stuff like customer satisfaction.

I don't think talent is the problem either. There's a lot more talent now than in the 90's.

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31. johnnyanmac ◴[] No.43492971{3}[source]
Maybe thst people didn't want to nitpick the most expensive film of its time? We can compare Waterworld to The Force Awakens if you wish, I suppose.
32. johnnyanmac ◴[] No.43493024{6}[source]
I mean, I see no issue with comparing high profile old games with high profile new games. The thing is thst there's less high profile bad games becsuse... Well, back then when you put in that money you werre trying to go for quality, I suppose.

It also was because development budgets were microscopic compared to today, so a bad release from a dev team of 5 people and 12 months won't bomb as badly as a 500 person 5 year "blockbuster" release. So yeah, Superman 64 was laughably bad but didn't sink a company the way Condord or even a not-that-bad game like Saints Row would.

Economy is different, as is the environment. There's still quality, but when a game flops, it's a tsunami level flop and not just a painful belly flop.

33. SecretDreams ◴[] No.43493058{3}[source]
QC hasn't scaled with volume and robustness introduced by better engineers (now retired) has been peeled back by juniors and managers that didn't understand the designs in the first place and are chasing mass and profit instead.
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34. johnnyanmac ◴[] No.43493067{3}[source]
Our capabilities didn't get worse. Management caused a shift in culture to make things worse by cheaper. We call it enshittification these days, but it'd decades in the making.

All this discussion assumes that Boeing engineers didn't catch this stuff and weren't banging the alarm bells over how these completely failed inspection. The problem was the people in power ignored it. This is an entirely social issue constructed by business demands, not one lacking expertise nor standards.

35. dkislyuk ◴[] No.43493367[source]
I think commodification is directly tied to a perceived drop in quality. For example, if the barriers to making a video game keep going down, there will be far more attempts, and per Sturgeon's law, the majority will be of low quality. And we have a recency bias where we over-index on the last few releases that we've seen, and we only remember the good stuff from a generation or two ago. But for every multitude of low-effort, AI-generated video games out there, we still get gems like Factorio and Valheim.
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36. trollbridge ◴[] No.43493432{4}[source]
QC is one of the first things to get cut. In software eventually customers punish you when your software is so bad that they can’t really use it at all. Aircraft used to be regulated, but Boeing somehow carved out “self regulation”. It’s the same problem as how washing machines don’t last as long as they did 20 years ago.
37. johnnyanmac ◴[] No.43493707{3}[source]
Surgeon's paw was true in the 90's and is true in the '20s. There's not much point in comparing the crap to the crap. The only big difference is that it is easier to see the bottom of the barrel in your most popular storefronts with a click l(even on "curated" ones these days woth PSN and the eShop) instead of going out of your way to find some shareware from a Geocity that barely functioned.

Thing is those high profile disasters are still supposedly the "cream of the crop". That's why they get compared to the cream of before.

Popular examples are easier to exemplify as well instead of taking the time to explain what Blinx the Cat or Midnight Club are (examples of good but not genre-defining entries)

38. SoftTalker ◴[] No.43493939{4}[source]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_rudder_issues
39. ekianjo ◴[] No.43495170{8}[source]
I would never use the official inflation numbers (they underestimate the actual inflation). It's easy to see that the most expensive movie ever made back in the day has a much lower budget that the most expensive movie made now, even adjusted for the official inflation rate.
40. hylaride ◴[] No.43495236{3}[source]
It wasn't that the 737 MAX isn't (or can't be) a safe aircraft, but that Boeing prioritized making it fly like its predecessor over all else - including safety.

The fact that two brand new MAX's crashed killing all aboard within 2 years of its commercial introduction (out of only ~600 models flying at the time) is a brutal safety record for the jet age, especially as the cause of the crash was the plane itself. That list you post includes any and all reported incidents that merely involve 737s (and involve incidents that were caused by factors that aren't necessarily related to the safety of the place itself).

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41. getpokedagain ◴[] No.43495630{3}[source]
Waterworld is my partners favorite film of all time.
42. casey2 ◴[] No.43498069{4}[source]
If the neighbor kid (Sidney "Sid" Phillips) from toy story appeared in a modern movie of a similar budge (not even inflation adjusted) people would comment about the bad CGI.

Toy Story was a good idea because attempts at depicting humans with CGI at the time had a very plastic look.

43. echoangle ◴[] No.43498620{4}[source]
Maybe the world has just moved on and standards from the past just aren't as valuable now as they once were?

Boeing being better now than in the 90s doesn't mean that the stock shouldn't drop, because competitors and expectations are higher now than in the 90s.

44. SR2Z ◴[] No.43499858{4}[source]
> It wasn't that the 737 MAX isn't (or can't be) a safe aircraft, but that Boeing prioritized making it fly like its predecessor over all else - including safety.

It's misleading to say they prioritized making it fly like its predecessor over safety.

In theory there was absolutely nothing wrong with a system LIKE MCAS. In fact the 737 MAX is still approved to fly with it.

The flaws were in the specific implementation and documentation around it, not with the idea of the system itself.

> The fact that two brand new MAX's crashed killing all aboard within 2 years of its commercial introduction (out of only ~600 models flying at the time) is a brutal safety record for the jet age, especially as the cause of the crash was the plane itself.

If you want to be pedantic about it, the reason for the crashes is that the pilots failed to recognize trim runaway during takeoff. The trim runaway was caused by MCAS, but this is not a new failure mode for ANY aircraft and pilots get extensive training on how to manage it [1].

MCAS failing was not an unrecoverable error [2]. It failed several times in the US, as well, but American pilot training standards are very high compared to the places where there WERE disasters and the pilots recognized and recovered quickly.

I say this not to deflect blame from MCAS. Its original implementation was unsafe and should never have been approved.

A large part of why modern jetliners are so safe is exactly because of flight control augmentations like this - both Boeing and Airbus have been implementing these for decades and they have made flying much safer. Your suggestion that any system like MCAS is always unsafe (or that Boeing was somehow doing something wrong by adding it) is totally wrong.

1: https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2017/july/pilot... 2: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/18/magazine/boeing-737-max-c...

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45. hylaride ◴[] No.43505337{5}[source]
> It's misleading to say they prioritized making it fly like its predecessor over safety.

The internal Boeing emails literally say otherwise.

> In theory there was absolutely nothing wrong with a system LIKE MCAS. In fact the 737 MAX is still approved to fly with it.

I never said that MCAS had any issues in theory. And the 737 MAX was mostly "approved" by Boeing's self-regulators, where emails trails (again literally) had anybody raising questions or concerns sidelined.

> The flaws were in the specific implementation and documentation around it, not with the idea of the system itself.

Yes, because Boeing's top priority was making it so that no expensive extra training was required to fly the MAX, despite the fact that MCAS was designed to deal with some situations that could cause the plane to fly differently.

> If you want to be pedantic about it...

Yes, I am being pedantic about it. The trim issues in the crashes were (intermittently) caused by MCAS, but there was no specific documentation or specific training as to how to deal with it in the case of faulty MCAS sensors. There were indeed several MCAS incidents in western flights, but they were different as the failures were different. The two crashed pilots did indeed attempt disabling MCAS but the intermittent failures masked the problem and there were insufficient checklists by boeing, because had they existed it could have allueded to the fact that such situations may need new simulator time.

The MCAS issue was totally and completely recoverable if it were properly documented, but doing that would have almost certainly guaranteed the simulator time that was Boeing's top priority to avoid.

Almost all the reports about pilot capability differences had more to do with experience than it did training. These "developing" countries have younger airlines and pilots who don't have the same pipeline of pilots with decades of experience, including the military like in the US. MCAS "acted up" on several other Lion Air flights that the pilots corrected for as well, but again those were different failure modes.

The fact that the Ethiopian Airlines had perfectly acceptable safety record on other planes negates that these are "poorly trained" pilots. They've had one major accident in 2010 that was attributed to pilot error, but most of the rest were due to bad luck (eg bird strikes) or hijackings.

> A large part of why modern jetliners are so safe is exactly because of flight control augmentations like this...

I never even mentioned MCAS by name. Yes, modern jetliners are safe because of these kinds of systems. Airbus planes will not allow pilots to do many things no matter what, even. But these systems are documented, pilots trained on them, and go through rigorous testing because in most cases they're designed to make a plane safer, not try to deal with aerodynamic changes.

Boeing wanted no new simulator training despite the MAX being a very different aircraft due to changed engine placement. That was the cause. If Boeing wasn't trying to avoid new simulator training the 737 MAX is a perfectly fine aircraft as far as we know.

The 787 had similar issues as the overriding goal of the program was to get as much capital expenditure off of Boeing's books, but all of the outsourcing led to a nightmare when trying to assemble the plane and there was no unified quality control program, or even a straight line of responsibility.

46. ApolloFortyNine ◴[] No.43505378{5}[source]
>A large part of why modern jetliners are so safe is exactly because of flight control augmentations like this - both Boeing and Airbus have been implementing these for decades and they have made flying much safer. Your suggestion that any system like MCAS is always unsafe (or that Boeing was somehow doing something wrong by adding it) is totally wrong.

The common person often doesn't realize this at all. Every modern plane is flying itself essentially, with hints from the pilot on what to actually do.

>MCAS failing was not an unrecoverable error [2]

Also this is frustrating, especially in the case of the second crash where every max pilot knew the procedure (including the one that crashed), they even performed the procedure but then disabled it a minute later. Both the NTSB and the BEA (French equivalent) agreed pilot error/CRM played a role in the second.