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Waymos crash less than human drivers

(www.understandingai.org)
345 points rbanffy | 30 comments | 26 Mar 25 20:57 UTC | HN request time: 0.882s | source | bottom
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wnissen ◴[26 Mar 25 21:37 UTC] No.43487648[source]▶
Serious crash rates are a hockey stick pattern. 20% of the drivers cause 80% of the crashes, to a rough approximation. For the worst 20% of drivers, the Waymo is almost certainly better already.

Honestly, at this point I am more interested in whether they can operate their service profitably and affordably, because they are clearly nailing the technical side.

For example data from a 100 driver study, see table 2.11, p. 29. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/37370 Roughly the same number of drivers had 0 or 1 near-crashes as had 13-50+. One of the drivers had 56 near crashes and 4 actual crashes in less than 20K miles! So the average isn't that helpful here.

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1. michaelmrose ◴[26 Mar 25 21:53 UTC] No.43487829[source]▶
What about the benefit to the 80% if the 20% were obligated to use software instead of their own wetware in a hypothetical world where this was feasible in all respects. Imagine if you transitioned to most new drivers for instance being issued only permits to use self driving vehicles and older drivers being obligated to switch at 65.
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2. threatofrain ◴[26 Mar 25 23:18 UTC] No.43488624[source]▶
Perhaps drunk drivers should be obligated to use automatic cars for some duration.
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3. tim333 ◴[26 Mar 25 23:20 UTC] No.43488645[source]▶
As someone getting on towards 65 I have to point out that insurance rates are less for the 65-70s than for any group younger that 55, and claim rates are lower than for any of the under 65s. My relatives didn't really start crashing into stuff till they got to about 90. And then it was kind of slow motion. (for this data https://www.abi.org.uk/products-and-issues/choosing-the-righ...)
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4. shadowgovt ◴[27 Mar 25 00:08 UTC] No.43489000[source]▶
The main reason we don't revoke licenses more aggressively right now is that America's infrastructure is so car-oriented that forcing people to never drive again can be a disruption on-par with being added to the sex-offender registry (1).

If self-driving cars became prevalent, I can absolutely see it leading to an increase in license revocation as a punishment for unsafe driving.

(1) Setting aside one's personal opinion on which is more dangerous to society: people on the sex-offender registry or drunk drivers.

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5. TehCorwiz ◴[27 Mar 25 00:35 UTC] No.43489154[source]▶
New drivers become better drivers by driving and gaining experience. This is why some states implement a mandatory minimum practice duration before you can get a license. Mandating they don't practice would be detrimental to the driving culture as it would skew in favor of AI by preventing learning in the first place.
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6. potato3732842 ◴[27 Mar 25 01:06 UTC] No.43489370[source]▶
Is that because you're better or because you're less exposed?

Not a lot of 65yo people working 80hr weeks, slogging out 50-100mi commutes or plowing into moose while blinded by the 6am sun on their way back from 3rd shift.

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7. michaelmrose ◴[27 Mar 25 03:04 UTC] No.43490001[source]▶
I think the theory would be that they never get practice and never manually drive ever. You know right after we solve the cost issue.
8. toast0 ◴[27 Mar 25 03:44 UTC] No.43490212{3}[source]▶
Insurance rates have a mileage component that should address that, although the smallest mileage category may be too large to really capture that. But if you're doing a 100 mile commute 5 days a week, that's likely beyond the lowest category.
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9. seanmcdirmid ◴[27 Mar 25 04:08 UTC] No.43490318{4}[source]▶
There is talk of per-mile insurance becoming a thing, maybe when per-mile registration taxes finally are? This would benefit a lot of us that come way under the lowest band.
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10. ◴[27 Mar 25 04:22 UTC] No.43490373[source]▶
11. kaikai ◴[27 Mar 25 04:46 UTC] No.43490468{5}[source]▶
Per-mile insurance has existed for a while, from companies like metromile.
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12. seanmcdirmid ◴[27 Mar 25 04:54 UTC] No.43490496{6}[source]▶
Yes, I’ve seen a few but so far never cheaper than per mile insurance, at least where I live. I’ll talk to my agent next year to see if my current home owner insurance company has one that works that way. My current policy uses my phone to track and reward driving habits, but it tracks my bus rides as car rides as well, which sucks. Can’t they come up with an Apple car app or something?
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13. dwighttk ◴[27 Mar 25 05:22 UTC] No.43490595{7}[source]▶
I’m so tempted to use a car insurance app, but in the end I don’t want to run a tracker
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14. dwighttk ◴[27 Mar 25 05:23 UTC] No.43490598[source]▶
Interestingly that’s the same thing that’s happening to school in general
15. macintux ◴[27 Mar 25 05:39 UTC] No.43490649{8}[source]▶
I don’t want to be penalized if I come to a sudden halt on a remote back road, with no one around, to remove a turtle, or a tire, or a bedframe from the road.

(Yes, I’ve done all of the above, multiple times.)

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16. Scoundreller ◴[27 Mar 25 07:07 UTC] No.43491082{3}[source]▶
Iunno, doesn’t stop Canada from issuing 1yr driving bans for 1st offence DUI, and that starts at 0.08

(And a lot of provinces do bans measured in days if you hit 0.05)

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17. timewizard ◴[27 Mar 25 08:01 UTC] No.43491324[source]▶
Some Australian provinces give you "P-Plates." These limit your privileges even after getting your license. Limits on number of passengers, times of day you can drive, and a horsepower limit. All of which are from many bloody lessons.
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18. watwut ◴[27 Mar 25 08:24 UTC] No.43491423{3}[source]▶
They are more careful. They drive more slowly. They are more afraid. They are safer drives considering outcomes. The problem here is that people say "better driver" can be evaluated in various ways, safety only one of them. Many people think, for example, that if you get there faster, you are better driver. Or if you can show quick thinking by sudden movements.

> Not a lot of 65yo people working 80hr weeks, slogging out 50-100mi commutes or plowing into moose while blinded by the 6am sun on their way back from 3rd shift.

People who drive in that state are one of two things: irresponsible or poor with no other choice.

Driving regularly while tired and sleep deprived is a big factor in accidents ... and that many people are somehow seeing it as heroship rather then being irresponsible is a cultural issue.

19. gambiting ◴[27 Mar 25 08:40 UTC] No.43491499{3}[source]▶
Tbf, like with many things in that country, I think it's fair to say Australians take this way too far. You're a grown adult who can drink alcohol, go fight for your country, get married etc etc....but god forbid that you drive after dark.
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20. tim333 ◴[27 Mar 25 09:05 UTC] No.43491616{3}[source]▶
Personally I'd say a mix of factors. Experience, a bit more cautious / laid back as in driving slower / leaving more distance, and probably less miles overall.
21. akdor1154 ◴[27 Mar 25 10:01 UTC] No.43491904{4}[source]▶
To clarify, the rule is intended to stop party cars full of drunk teens at 2am. The actual rules are like (NSW):

> If you're under 25 and are on your red Ps, you must not drive with more than one passenger who is under 21 between 11pm and 5am.

(Red Ps means the first year of being able to drive unsupervised)

22. amohn9 ◴[27 Mar 25 10:07 UTC] No.43491946{4}[source]▶
While Australia does take things too far, I’m actually on their side here. Driving has been too normalized. You’re operating a 2 ton chunk of metal at 60+ mph inches away from other people. Australia has far fewer pedestrian deaths per capita than the US does, and enforcing a higher skill bar for more difficult situations must be part of that.
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23. gambiting ◴[27 Mar 25 10:11 UTC] No.43491969{5}[source]▶
Saying you can't drive with 2 passangers at night has nothing to do with skill - if it did, you could pass a test to demonstrate that you can do this safely. Instead it's just another "you're not mature enough to do this" restriction which is bonkers. Again, you can drive this 2 ton chunk of metal, but at night? With passangers?? Phwoar, we can't have that.
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24. potato3732842 ◴[27 Mar 25 10:25 UTC] No.43492055{6}[source]▶
Most of the time with obviously nonsensical stuff like that they're doing it to appease certain demographics or stakeholders.

They needed Karen's support to get the whole thing passed so they added a "and we won't let them drive after dark" clause to get it.

25. dagw ◴[27 Mar 25 10:45 UTC] No.43492177{6}[source]▶
"you're not mature enough to do this"

Isn't it rather saying that you're not experienced enough to do this. Speaking only for myself, I passed my driving test no problem and after a couple of month of driving I thought I was a great driver. Yet looking back now with the benefit of experience I know for a fact I did some really stupid things that first year of driving and it was only luck rather skill that led to me not getting into an accident.

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26. dwighttk ◴[27 Mar 25 11:14 UTC] No.43492369{9}[source]▶
Good point. I hadn’t even thought of getting pinged for non-wrecks.
27. gambiting ◴[27 Mar 25 12:45 UTC] No.43493014{7}[source]▶
Again, that would make sense if it applied equally for all new drivers - but if you're over 25 then there is no such restriction, even if you got your licence a day before. You have zero experience behind the wheel but you're fine to drive in a car full of people, but someone who has been driving for 7 years but is one day short of 25 can't do it - who is the more experienced driver there?

So yeah, it's all about "not being mature enough".

28. Zigurd ◴[27 Mar 25 13:20 UTC] No.43493328{4}[source]▶
America is different and becoming more so.
29. timewizard ◴[27 Mar 25 19:33 UTC] No.43497228{6}[source]▶
The majority of pedestrian deaths take place at night.
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30. gambiting ◴[28 Mar 25 14:00 UTC] No.43505538{7}[source]▶
Do people under 25 carrying 2 or more passangers on average kill more pedestrians when driving at night?