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Waymos crash less than human drivers

(www.understandingai.org)
345 points rbanffy | 7 comments | 26 Mar 25 20:57 UTC | HN request time: 1.055s | source | bottom
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wnissen ◴[26 Mar 25 21:37 UTC] No.43487648[source]▶
Serious crash rates are a hockey stick pattern. 20% of the drivers cause 80% of the crashes, to a rough approximation. For the worst 20% of drivers, the Waymo is almost certainly better already.

Honestly, at this point I am more interested in whether they can operate their service profitably and affordably, because they are clearly nailing the technical side.

For example data from a 100 driver study, see table 2.11, p. 29. https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/37370 Roughly the same number of drivers had 0 or 1 near-crashes as had 13-50+. One of the drivers had 56 near crashes and 4 actual crashes in less than 20K miles! So the average isn't that helpful here.

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michaelmrose ◴[26 Mar 25 21:53 UTC] No.43487829[source]▶
What about the benefit to the 80% if the 20% were obligated to use software instead of their own wetware in a hypothetical world where this was feasible in all respects. Imagine if you transitioned to most new drivers for instance being issued only permits to use self driving vehicles and older drivers being obligated to switch at 65.
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TehCorwiz ◴[27 Mar 25 00:35 UTC] No.43489154[source]▶
New drivers become better drivers by driving and gaining experience. This is why some states implement a mandatory minimum practice duration before you can get a license. Mandating they don't practice would be detrimental to the driving culture as it would skew in favor of AI by preventing learning in the first place.
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timewizard ◴[27 Mar 25 08:01 UTC] No.43491324[source]▶
Some Australian provinces give you "P-Plates." These limit your privileges even after getting your license. Limits on number of passengers, times of day you can drive, and a horsepower limit. All of which are from many bloody lessons.
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gambiting ◴[27 Mar 25 08:40 UTC] No.43491499[source]▶
Tbf, like with many things in that country, I think it's fair to say Australians take this way too far. You're a grown adult who can drink alcohol, go fight for your country, get married etc etc....but god forbid that you drive after dark.
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1. amohn9 ◴[27 Mar 25 10:07 UTC] No.43491946[source]▶
While Australia does take things too far, I’m actually on their side here. Driving has been too normalized. You’re operating a 2 ton chunk of metal at 60+ mph inches away from other people. Australia has far fewer pedestrian deaths per capita than the US does, and enforcing a higher skill bar for more difficult situations must be part of that.
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2. gambiting ◴[27 Mar 25 10:11 UTC] No.43491969[source]▶
Saying you can't drive with 2 passangers at night has nothing to do with skill - if it did, you could pass a test to demonstrate that you can do this safely. Instead it's just another "you're not mature enough to do this" restriction which is bonkers. Again, you can drive this 2 ton chunk of metal, but at night? With passangers?? Phwoar, we can't have that.
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3. potato3732842 ◴[27 Mar 25 10:25 UTC] No.43492055[source]▶
Most of the time with obviously nonsensical stuff like that they're doing it to appease certain demographics or stakeholders.

They needed Karen's support to get the whole thing passed so they added a "and we won't let them drive after dark" clause to get it.

4. dagw ◴[27 Mar 25 10:45 UTC] No.43492177[source]▶
"you're not mature enough to do this"

Isn't it rather saying that you're not experienced enough to do this. Speaking only for myself, I passed my driving test no problem and after a couple of month of driving I thought I was a great driver. Yet looking back now with the benefit of experience I know for a fact I did some really stupid things that first year of driving and it was only luck rather skill that led to me not getting into an accident.

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5. gambiting ◴[27 Mar 25 12:45 UTC] No.43493014{3}[source]▶
Again, that would make sense if it applied equally for all new drivers - but if you're over 25 then there is no such restriction, even if you got your licence a day before. You have zero experience behind the wheel but you're fine to drive in a car full of people, but someone who has been driving for 7 years but is one day short of 25 can't do it - who is the more experienced driver there?

So yeah, it's all about "not being mature enough".

6. timewizard ◴[27 Mar 25 19:33 UTC] No.43497228[source]▶
The majority of pedestrian deaths take place at night.
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7. gambiting ◴[28 Mar 25 14:00 UTC] No.43505538{3}[source]▶
Do people under 25 carrying 2 or more passangers on average kill more pedestrians when driving at night?